Join us as we preview a blockbuster weekend of horse racing, starting at the historic Newmarket Racecourse with four elite races:
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Palace House Stakes – Lightning-fast sprinters face off
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2000 Guineas Stakes – The first Classic of the British flat season
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Dahlia Stakes – Top fillies and mares battle for supremacy
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1000 Guineas Stakes – Future champions emerge on the Rowley Mile
Then we turn our attention across the Atlantic to Churchill Downs, where international contenders are set to take on America’s best on the Kentucky Derby card. From Godolphin to Coolmore, we spotlight the overseas runners ready to make headlines on racing’s biggest stage.
🎥 Expert analysis, horse-by-horse previews, and exclusive insights for one of the biggest weekends in global Thoroughbred racing!
22 to 1 Tom’s Newmarket Picks and Analysis
Race 4 – Saturday
Hong Kong Jockey Club World Pool Palace House Stakes (Group 3) Cl1 (3yo+) 5f
3 – No Half Measures
She returns to the races after a reasonably successful three-year-old season with eleven starts and six wins on both turf and all-weather. She won at both five and six furlongs. Her last race was over the very soft going at Longchamp in a Group One, and she ran on for fifth. Ryan Moore won on her at Newbury two races back, a Group Three race at five furlongs on the heavy going. Why pick? She wins or does not do much. She runs into all types of going and wins.
5 – Seven Questions
Last season, after returning from Dubai, she ran in a group of three races at Newmarket first up and won over a good field, including group one winners, but then she went bust in her next three races. This time around, no Dubai, straight into racing five furlongs. If ready, she will do well in this race.
8 – Beautiful Diamond
I don’t know why she is the favorite, but she finished last season with a second at Ascot in a listed race. In her other races, she was in group one and two company, losing to Bradsell, Believing, and Makarova. Okay, now I can see her as the favorite. She won the first-up maiden race, maybe again.
Race 5 – Saturday
Betfred 2000 Guineas Stakes (Group 1) (No Geldings) Cl1 (3yo) 1m
8 – Shadow Of Light
I think William Buick picked the wrong horse in this race (again). This horse has lost just once by three quarters of a length. She won her final season race at Newmarket at seven furlongs in a Group One by a neck. She’s won on good and soft going, and they are bringing in one of the top jockeys in France, Mickael Barzalona, to ride for Godolphin.
10 – Wimbledon Hawkeye
This horse could win, but it is as good as putting up a good fight and running in the money. He has run six times, two wins, two seconds, and two thirds. He has one race this season and ran second to Field Of Gold. I can’t leave him off my ticket.
2 – Expanded
Here’s a horse with two starts, one win, and one second. The second was to Shadow Of Light. For a Ryan Moore/Aiden O’Brien at these odds, I can’t help but add to my ticket because this is a classic race, and they know very well how to win classic races.
Race 2 – Sunday
Betfred Dahlia Stakes (Group 2) (Fillies & Mares) Cl1 (4yo+) 1m1f
1 – Beautiful Love
In a short field like this, the longshot is always very inviting to me. She spent the Fall in the States running in good to top company at Gulfstream, Del Mar (Breeders’ Cup), Aqueduct, and Saratoga. She won once at Aqueduct going 11 furlongs in grade three company. She raced this season at Gulfstream in a Grade three 12 12-furlong race and ran sixth. She won’t set the pace in a paceless race but sit with the group in the back of the field and go when asked. I think she’s better than the other Godolphin horse.
4 – Running Lion
After something went seriously wrong in the July race last season, and she lost by 40 lengths, she came back at Longchamp and ran second to Friendly Soul. She needs a race before top form, which is her pattern. Maybe at 5yo, she’s mature enough to be a very special mare. We will see how she starts the season.
3 – Elmalka
This horse is very good at finishing fourth and has done that in her last three races at Royal Ascot, Goodwood, and Newmarket. She won in May over Porta Fortuna at Newmarket in a Group One with the same jockey as today. Changing jockeys and, first of all, she is very dangerous in this short field.
Race 4 – Sunday
Betfred 1000 Guineas Stakes (Group 1) (Fillies) Cl1 (3yo) 1m
2 – Desert Flower
There are four undefeated horses in this race, and with only four starts, Desert Flower has run three of her four wins at Newmarket. There is no question in my mind that she is the favorite and won her last race, a Group One race by over five lengths. They haven’t raced her until now because this is the target race that Buick/Appleby/Godolphin want her to win. She will sit close to the pace and pounce with two furlongs to go. She’s won twice at this distance.
4 – Elwateen
Also, an undefeated horse, she has only one start on the all-weather at Kempton on the standard to slow going—big favorite and won by a length. Now, Shadwell and Saeed Bin Suroor must see something special in her before entering here. The breeding is for a good to excellent miler, but further distance can’t be ruled out. She is also entered for Royal Ascot at this distance.
7 – Lake Victoria
Finally, I get to my final selection, and guess what? She’s undefeated, too. She won her last race to wrap up her season by one-plus lengths over the overwhelming favorite at Del Mar in the Breeders’ Cup. She’s won three Group Ones and one at Newmarket and should put in a reasonable effort, but my concern with her is whether she’s ready for this one-mile test on the straight mile. City of Troy wasn’t for his debut in the 2000 Guineas last year, but is she a more mature horse? I can’t rule her out with the Moore/O’Brien team. She certainly bred to be a miler, and one of her siblings won running two miles, and one went longer, but he is a jumper.
Foreign entries in the Kentucky Derby
6 – Admire Daytona
Won by a nose in the UAE Derby last time out at one and three-sixteenths distance and finished fourth to the Luxor Cafe in Tokyo in an early race. Except for the last race, all his races were at one mile. He has one race over the mud and one on good going.
His sire is Drefong, an outstanding sprinter who never raced farther than seven furlongs. He won the Breeders’ Cup Sprint. Looking at his breeding, he is by Gio Ponti, who was excellent on the turf and ran second in the Breeders’ Cup Classic. If you dig deeper into the breeding, you find horses like Ghostzapper, Shackleford, Sunday Silence, and Maplejinsky.
Even though Drefong was a sprint champion, we have produced horses that can run a mile and a quarter. He has stamina on both sides of his breeding and should do well at this distance.
7 – Luxor Cafe
He has won his last four races as the favorite and has beaten Admire Daytona. His last race was about one mile and one-eighth, and he won by over five lengths. All of his races were in Japan.
His breeding is All-American, being by American Pharoah, and his offspring have won at classic distances on turf. However, the situation is different on dirt, where the best runners have typically excelled one mile or less. This horse has already demonstrated that ability but may perform better on turf at a classic distance than on dirt.
Looking at the dam side, she was a good turf runner, but as a broodmare, she has excelled at producing stakes winners, and they include: Cafe Pharoah, Regal Glory, Night Prowler, who are all graded stakes winners.
Overall, the turf horses have done the best at distances over one mile and a few at even over two miles.
Rich’s Newmarket Ranks and Comments
Saturday
Race 4: PALACE HOUSE STAKES – 9:55 am ET
5 – SEVEN QUESTIONS – you got to beat the champ to be the champ
7 – WASHINGTON HEIGHTS – decent at Newmarket 4/1-2-0 – Group company 7 in a row
8 – BEAUTIFUL DIAMOND – ITM 7/9 at the distance – solid 1st up record
11 – TROPICAL STORM – would like to rank higher – but 3 yo running vs older horses
Race 5: 2000 GUINEAS STAKES – 10:35 am ET
6 – SCORTHY CHAMP – missed the break in his second race or is undefeated in three – final times are as good as any
3 – FIELD OF GOLD – unbeaten in two at Newmarket – including a 2nd up like today
5 – RULING COURT – won big in his two Ws – always heavily bet – failed in lone Group run – Buick rides here instead of…. 8
4 – GREEN IMPACT – is a neck from being undefeated in 3 – 1st up is the question – but any improvement on final times and he can win
Sunday
Race 2: DAHLIA STAKES – 9:20 am ET
2 – CINDERELLA’S DREAM – winner 6 of 9 – tremendous LS
4 – RUNNING LION – not much speed in here – could dictate the pace from start to finish
5 – SECRET SATIRE – one of the longest shot in 5 horse field – got to have him
Race 4: 1000 GUINEAS STAKES – 10:35 am ET
3 – DUTY FIRST – taking at shot at the heavy favorites – 7f in 1:23.4 is fast no matter where – major improvement in only other 2nd up
2 – DESERT FLOWER – Big favorite – rightly so with 4 easy wins in 4 races
7 – LAKE VICTORIA – unbeaten in 2 at Newmarket and in 5 overall
6 – HEY BOO – taking a shot – finished 2nd behind DUTY FIRST in her last, which was first on turf -fast time here too
Churchill International Flavor
Friday
Race 8: MODESTY STAKES
2 – GIMME A NOTHER – late speed was there in US debut – jy Jose Ortiz should have better understanding to get into better spot this time – weaved a little in last
Saturday
Race 5: DISTAFF TURF MILE
4 – SERENE SERAPH – solid breeding – don’t think the English races were against company that is inline with what she gets here – and she struggled at times at stakes and handicap levels – LS for a piece – maybe
Race 7: TURF SPRINT
8 – ROGUE LIGHTNING – shot to win – took the lead and lost the lead in the Grade II Shakertown Stakes – bombed in last 2nd up – yellow flags
Race 9: AMERICAN TURF STAKES
3 – NEW CENTURY – getting extra 1/16 mile helps here – Grade I win at Woodbine – although the ranking is there – not sure about the quality that runs there – late pace is on the modest side for an English invader
Race 12: KENTUCKY DERBY
6 – ADMIRE DAYTONA – missed by a nose against LUXOR CAFÉ – w2w Group 2 win in Meydan last out – for a Derby – doesn’t seem like this one is loaded with early speed – right fraction and maybe – but the 6 draw – careful not to get boxed in
7 – LUXOR CAFÉ – might be the foreign horse with the best chance to win – IMO – daddy is AMERICAN PHAROAH – it is in his bloodlines – likes to stalk and looking at his PPs – he crushed the comp in his 2 longest races at 1 1/8 miles – versus fields on 11 and 16 – getting an extra 1/8 mile here – might run by them all and now the Japanese know to lodge an objection if he is interfered with late
#Newmarket #GuineasFestival #PalaceHouseStakes #KentuckyDerby #KentuckyOaks #ChurchillDowns #HorseRacing #InternationalRacing #FlatRacing #2000Guineas #1000Guineas
