Group racing returns to Caulfield Racecourse, and Tom and Rich have teamed up for a full slate of sharp, stakes-level selections. From the Vain Stakes to the Sportsbet Blackbook, they bring you pace projections, live longshots, and insights that go beyond the form guide.
Race 5 – Tobin Brothers Vain Stakes (G3, 1100m, 3yo Colts & Geldings) – 12:45 AM ET
Tom’s Tips
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2 – Shining Smile
The most experienced runner in this race. He ran once on soft going and won. He won his barrier trial and had a four-race winning streak. He won at the listed level, so this is a step up, but he has a good draw and should be able to run his race, from the front end or middle of the pack. -
4 – Shaggy
He blew it at the start, moved to second, but faded badly. After moving to Group Two in March, he was forwardly placed but unable to do better than fifth. He won his first three starts at the lower level and won two out of three on soft going. He will take the lead and fade to third. -
5 – Jimmy Recard
He is two for two on soft going and zero for one on good. He was second in his barrier trial and won his last two races. Inside post means get out like he did in the last race, sitting behind the leaders.
Rich’s Ranks
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5 – Jimmy Recard – June 12th race of 5¼f in 1:04 is by far the best – repeat and it’s easy
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7 – Express Class – fast race with problems in debut – no problems, maybe even faster
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2 – Shining Smile – winner 5 in a row – room to improve in 2nd up
Race 6 – Tile Importer Quezette Stakes (G3, 1100m, 3yo Fillies) – 1:25 AM ET
Tom’s Tips
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6 – Signature Scent
Undefeated in two races, including one at Caulfield at this distance. She didn’t have the best of starts last time but still won. Both her starts were on soft going. She ran second in her barrier trial, but in a quick time. She will remain undefeated. -
4 – Scenic Point
Undefeated with her last run at Caulfield in a listed race. She ran two barrier trials and won one, beating my top choice. The only question is whether she will run well on soft going. We’ll see. -
1 – The Playwright
After winning a Group Three, she was placed in a Group One and ran fourth. She’s handled soft going once with a win. She is going to show speed and most likely will set the pace. She’s run two barrier trials before this race and is removing the blinkers, trying to get her to settle early—maybe.
Rich’s Ranks
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4 – Scenic Point – race times are too fast for the rest of these
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1 – The Playwright – won debut – means can thrive 1st up – will need her best
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10 – Ferivia – well bet in debut – should get a good stalking trip
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3 – My Gladiola – another that could shine in first up based on debut performance
Race 7 – Evergreen Turf Regal Roller Stakes (Listed, 1200m, 4yo+) – 2:00 AM ET
Tom’s Tips
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2 – Brudenell
His record on soft going is good, with five of seven runs in the money with two wins. His first-up record is two wins from six starts. He had a winning effort in his barrier trial prep. He has won or placed at this level six of eight times. He wins or does nothing—watch him next time out. -
9 – Kiko
She has one win on soft and one win on heavy, and has placed three times on soft, so she’s never been out of the money. She won her last race at the benchmark 70 level by one length at 1000m, coming from the back of the field. -
10 – Pop Award
She won her last start at benchmark 78 level at this track and has now won four in a row at lower levels. The soft going suits, and I think she will continue to move forward—win? Maybe not, but she can stand against this group.
Rich’s Ranks
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8 – Royal Insignia – won both 1st up efforts and excels at the distance
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9 – Kiko – going to take a shot here – found form in last and loves soft 4:1-3-0
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1 – Arkansaw Kid – has the best time – just needs to rerun his last
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4 – Losesomewinmore – winner two in a row, faster final time in last – regression risk
Race 8 – Catanach’s Jewellers P.B. Lawrence Stakes (G2, 1400m, 3yo+) – 2:35 AM ET
Tom’s Tips
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8 – Moira
She’s run once in Australia, and it was awful. Time away and two barrier trials prep her for this race. She won the Breeders’ Cup last year with a big move forward. Much better than her prior Aussie start. -
11 – Yellow Sam
Loves Caulfield—1 win, 5 placings from 7 starts. ITM 6/7 at this distance and thrives on soft to heavy going. Third in last two runs. Should make a good account of herself. -
1 – Private Eye
Class of the field. Two barrier trials—second and first. Last race: Group 1 third at Eagle Farm. One win at this distance, 4 placings from 6. First start at Caulfield at age 8—let’s see what he’s got.
Rich’s Ranks
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1 – Private Eye – once again, best 7f times – rerun last and it’s a wrap
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2 – Here to Shock – strong at Caulfield 6:2-3-0 – AON soft 6:3-0-0 – winner 9/18 at distance
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6 – Evaporate – likely FAV – soft record solid 4:3-1-0 – maybe not in top form 1st up?
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11 – Yellow Sam – Tom horse – must respect: Distance ITM 6/7, Track 6/7, Soft 4/5
Race 9 – Sportsbet Blackbook Handicap (BM100, 1600m) – 3:15 AM ET
Tom’s Tips
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12 – Too Darn Discreet
Poor first-up, but bounced back with a win. Outside draw. 3-for-7 on soft. She wins or does nothing—I’m betting repeat. -
4 – Forgot You
Second last out and third prior at BM100 and listed level. 6 soft starts: 2 wins, 3 placings. Closer that hits the board—doubtful win. -
1 – Golden Path
Huge class drop from G1 to BM100. Barrier trials average. Last ITM was Sept 2024, G3. Soft/heavy okay, but only 1 win at the distance. Fade him.
Rich’s Ranks
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1 – Golden Path – theme for the day – 1 horse that looks like he can run the distance much faster than the rest
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11 – Revelare – hard to go against a winner of 6/8 and 2/2 at 1 mile vs these
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3 – Munhamek – closed into a “very slow pace” last out – could catch a hotter setup
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6 – Running By – closer that’s mostly run 7f – extra distance helps
