22 to 1 Tom’s Tips
Melbourne Cup Tips and Analysis
Flemington Racecourse
Melbourne Cup 2 miles 3200m Soft 7
22 – High Emocean – Barrier 8
A winner last out at Bendigo in group 3 at 2400m as the favorite in the heavy going
Starting this season, 3 races at Flemington
The first start, ran 4th vs. open company going 2530m
The second start, won by 2L in a minor stakes race
In the third start, ran 6th in the open group 3 race going 2510m
Career-wise at Flemington 6 races 1 win 2 placings
Career record 22 starts 7 wins 8 placings
Gets in with a light weight of 50kg
Change of jockey but he has ridden her to victory before
Likes to run and win on all types of going; good, soft, and heavy
Disappointing runs last season, but she really has turned it around this season
She appears to be versatile in running styles, either more forwardly placed or can sit mid-pack with cover
Big Price
18 – Lunar Flare – Barrier 12
His last 2 races at 2500m have been good efforts with 1 win 1 second over the good and heavy going in group 3 and group 2 races
The trainer started the season running the horse in an 1100m race and kept increasing the distance from 1700m to 2000m to 2500m
He has a good record of 33 starts 8 wins 10 placings and his wins are on the good to soft going, he placed 2 times in the heavy going
At Flemington, 3 starts and 1 win, and that was this season
He takes some weight over for this race
With his current form and appears to have a liking for distance, I think he has a good chance to pick up a piece of money in this race
6 – Without A Fight – Barrier 18
Shipping in from England with a record of 2 wins 1 second 1 third
In both of his 2 longer races, he’s a winner but the July race was a 3-horse field
This race was the target of this season for the horse and using longer races has resulted in a good record but not running against the top stayers in Europe
These races were on the good to firm going so the soft going must be a concern since he doesn’t have a race record over the going
But the owners/trainers know that the weather has been very wet this Spring
William Buick is in for the ride for Simon & Ed Crisford, and he will be then going to Lexington for the Breeders Cup races in which he has a few mounts
William Buick does have rides early in the race card which I like to see to get use to the going
19 – Smokin’ Romans – Barrier 16
The last race a Caulfield was a disappointing effort running 7th in group 1 at 2400m behind Durston who was withdrawn from this race and would have been one of the top choices
But his 2 races prior were both wins in group 1 at Flemington at 2000m and the race before, another win at 2000m at Caulfield in the Group 3 race
He’s won at 2500m but never attempted this distance
Top jockey Jamie Kah has the ride
I really don’t know what kind of price your going to get on this horse so it will be interesting
