Horse Racing Picks, Analysis, Handicapping and Tips
Terry and Rich discuss…
Horse Racing Picks
Tampa Bay Downs Full Card Picks
Hot Dog and Prime Rib Pick 4s
Guaranteed Tip Sheet Free Track: Turf Paradise
Tampa Bay Downs Horse Racing Tips and Commentary
Terry “Hollywood” Hay’s Handicapping
Race 1
3 – It’s Fate – Finished 3rd vs similar in last race and has decent workouts.
2 – Seventy Seventycat – Finished 4th beaten only 2-lengths vs tougher in last start, receiving the highest last race speed rating and he has the highest speed figure at today’s distance – Drops in class today.
6 – Whistle Me Home – He had a lot of trouble in his last race; Bumping with foe at the break and came 5-6wide into the stretch – He has the highest speed figure at today’s distance and his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters (tie).
1 – Macho Real – Won his last race at Tampa Bay Downs and has a trainer/jockey combo who in the last 14 days has this record (2 2-0-0).
Alternate:
5 – Strong Ending
Race 2
3 – The Skipster – Finished 4th in his last race on the turf and should improve while returning to Dirt- Can improve at the shorter distance.
4 – El Guapo – Finished 2nd in last race, has the highest speed figure at today’s distance and has a decent workout on 27Feb Tam 4f ft :49.3 B 34/102.
5 – Ziggy – Finished 5th in his last race after being bumped at the start of the race – The trainer wins 26% of the Maiden Claiming races he has an entry in – His best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters and the jockey in the last 7 days has this record (18 5-1-2).
1 – Manuka Bobby – Rail post is winning at 18% clip – He may improve while returning to dirt, drops in class today and returning to a sprint should help.
Alternate:
2 – Furious Finnegan
6 – Justice Warrior
Race 3
7 – Takemyshot – Came in from Gulfstream Park and finished 2nd in his first race at Tampa Bay Downs at today’s distance.
6 – Poseidons Myth – Finished 3rd vs similar in last race and received the highest last race speed.
3 – Giovane’s Promise – Finished 3rd vs similar in last race – His best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters.
2 – Plunk – First time starter – His Dam has 7 winners from 9 starters and 2 stakes winners.
Alternate:
1 – Sette Stelle
4 – The Equinest
Race 4
4 – Bailout Kela – Ran 2nd last August in the first two races of her career and has been working out weekly for this start – Lasix added.
3 – Sassy Charlee –Ran 2nd vs similar in last race and has a trainer/jockey combo who has in the last 14 days has this record (8 2-2-0) – Has a good 4F workout (Mar-19).
1 – Moon Party – She has the highest last race speed rating and has a decent workout on 25Mar Tam 4f gd :50.2 B 3/9.
6 – St. Pat’s Day First time starter – Her Dam has 1 winner from 1 starter and Jockey Pablo Morales rides her.
Alternate:
2 – Bayou Melody
Race 5
6 – Xy Speed – Ran 2nd vs tougher in his last race, got the highest last race speed rating and has the highest speed figure at today’s distance – He loves the turf and today’s distance – Drops in class today – Has a good 3F workout on Mar-19.
2 – Savvy Layla – Finished 3rd vs tougher in last race and drops in class today.
3 – Fox Rox – Ran 2nd vs tougher in last race – Has high % winning jockey Pablo Morales in the irons and drops in class today.
7 – Fig Jelly – Finished in the money in six out of his last seven races – The trainer wins 25% of the races after claiming a horse – His best turf speed is fastest among today’s starters, and he has a good 3F workout on Mar-19.
Alternate:
8 – Mudslide Wicked
4 – Hard Count
Race 6
5 – Knight Ofthe Crown – Won his last race at Tampa Bay Downs and got the highest last race speed rating -The trainer wins 21% of the races in claiming events and her best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters.
6 – Melina’s Dream – Has done well at Tampa Bay Downs and switches to a high % jockey.
2 – Its Over – Finished in the money in three out of four races at Tampa Bay Downs and finishing 2nd in her last race.
1 – Style – Rail post is winning at an 18% clip and she may improve while returning to dirt – She has a trainer who has in the last 14 days has this record (5 4-0-0).
Alternate:
3 – More Mucho
7 – Fierce Warrior
Race 7
1 – Sandy Lane Kitten – Ran 2nd in last race – Rail post is winning at 18% clip; he has the highest speed figure at today’s distance and his best turf speed is fastest among today’s starters – He has a trainer who in the last 14 days has this record (5 4-0-0).
2 – D’craziness – Won his last two races in a row, has the highest last race speed rating and switches to a high % jockey.
9 – Van – Finished 2nd in the last three races in a row – He has a good 4F workout on 20Mar Tam 5f ft 1:01.2 B 3/30.
6 – El Samuro – Finished 3rd vs similar (on Dirt) in the last race after winning two races prior to that.
Alternate:
7 – Obiwan
5 – Outrageous Bet
Race 8
9 – Dontlosethatnumber – Came in from Monmouth and won her last race at Tampa Bay Downs by 11-lenghts and received the highest last race speed rating.
4 – R Love On the Run – She should improve while returning to Dirt – The trainer wins 22% of the races when dropping a horse down 2+ classes – Her best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters (tie).
8 – Gone Dreaming – She ran 2nd vs similar in her last race and the trainer/jockey combo who in the last 14 days has this record (8 2-2-0).
7 – Queen Tiger – Drops in class today and the trainer wins 23% of the races when dropping a horse down 2+ classes.
Alternate:
3 – J D’s Vista
5 – Blushing Keylen
Race 9
5 – Morgan’s Z Va – Ran 6th after getting a wide trip during the race but with a cleaner trip should do better – The trainer wins 23% of the races when bringing a beaten favorite back to race again.
6 – Hoity Toity– Likes the track and distance – Should improve at the shorter distance and has the highest speed figure at today’s distance.
2 – Magicgirl – Won his last race at Tampa Bay Downs and she has a good trainer and jockey.
4 – Luna Queen – Won his last race at Tampa Bay Downs and has a trainer/jockey combo who in the last 14 days has this record (2 2-0-0).
Rich’s Ranks
Race 1 – 1 1/16 Miles – 47 races, 28 won by speed, 11 w2w – PP: Rail & 4-7>2/3 – 8+ zero wins
There isn’t a true frontrunner, two that usually ride shotgun and press and four that close for the Ws. You gotta think speed should hold.
6 – WHISTLE ME HOME – dropping in class for his second start after a layoff, bullet work between races and has the ability to be upfront
2 – SEVENTY SEVENTYCAT – has the strongest LP# in case the speed can’t hold
3 – IT’S FATE – mid-pack type that significantly improved his late run in his last race, very consistent performer
5 – STRONG ENDING – thanks Charles
Race 2 – 7 Furlongs – 96 Races, 59 won by speed, 27 w2w – PP: Rail Edge, 2-7 a little better than 8+
Four of the five experienced horses ran their best near the front. So, you have to expect they get on the gas here in a spot with two front runners and two chasers. The other with a resume is a closer and a first timers. Once again, speed should hold.
3 – THE SKIPSTER – probably the co-pilot but has better late #s than the other E type
4 – EL GUAPO – is the other E type with the top EP#s, if he can run an opening half around 46 ½ seconds, might not be catchable
5 – ZIGGY – played guitar good and ran OK at Gulfstream, gets the Gulfstream bump with 12f of good works since last race
2 – FURIOUS FINNEGAN – 1st time starter, tough call over the 1, the work on October 19th says he could be live, Gelded 5-YO debut – keep an eye on the 5 YO Gelded angle
Raec 3 – 7 Furlongs – 96 Races, 59 won by speed, 27 w2w – PP: Rail Edge, 2-7 a little better than 8+
This is one of those races somebody has to win. Three of the eight combined to never hit the bard in 26 races. Add in another and they have one second in 33 starts. Like I said, there will be a winner by default.
There is one horse that can lead or stalk, two that press, and the rest are usually waaaayyyy back with a few that can close along with a first-time starter.
2 – PLUNK – doesn’t have a lot to beat in here so WTH. Samy Camacho on of the top jockeys in this group, 42k horse – most expensive by a wide margin, some OK works at GP and Dam makes winners
7 – TAKEMYSHOT – probably post time fav and most logical pick, drops from 16k, 2nd in TB after running at GP, improved his 2/4f # last out
6 – POSEIDONS MYTH – major improvement in his LP# last out with TLRSP#, jy Ademar Santos the other high win rate
8 – RAMIRIN – might as well toss in a price, yet to hit the board in 15 races, but improve ATB in his last with by far his best internals in first start for tr: Baltazar Galvan
Race 4 – 5 ½ Furlongs, 42 Races, 31 won by speed, 18 w2w – PP: fair
There are too many first-time starters here to worry about race shape because you have no idea how the virgins will run. In this kind of race, you have to put the experienced horses in one bucket and the first timers in another. Hoping to get a price, so I am going lean on the first-time bucket with one experienced type.
2 – BAYOU MELODY – has EP and gets 1st Lasix, well bet in debut with Top Debut Speed #, and ran the faster 5f time of any of the experienced horses
6 – ST. PAT’S DAY – top jy Pablo Morales, 2/2 w/ Tr John Vinson 5/16 w/ 1st timers, 3/10 MDCL Debuts, both plus ROIs, 1.54 and 0.04 respectively.
5 – TWO SPOT – best workouts for first timers
3 – SASSY CHARLEE
Race 5 – 5 Furlongs Turf – 19 Races, 13 won by speed, 8 w2w -PP: Strong Rail Bias, 2-7 even, 8+ penalty
Five of the eight in here like to be closer to the back than the front. The three that like to get out quickly look more like pressure horses than frontrunners. One of them will take charge and have a solid chance to go wire to wire.
6 – XY SPEED – really should have his way with this group – 1/5 odds?
3 – FOX ROX – ran some quicker fractions last out with improved LP#s, Tampa 16/6-2-3
7 – FIG JELLY – has a chance if he can get to the lead and run decent fractions, bullet work on March 19, and cuts back
4 – HARD COUNT – tough call over #2, chased faster fractions last out, lowest level since December, winner and is always close at this level
Race 6 – 7 Furlongs – 96 Races, 59 won by speed, 27 w2w – PP: Rail Edge, 2-7 a little better than 8+
This one could be on the slow side as there isn’t a true pacesetter in this group. One that likes to pressure, two that stalk and go and four closers or never in it types. Get to the lead and you might not get passed.
5 – KNIGHT OFTHE CROWN – usually not a fan of MCLer, but TLRSP#, a bullet work and then maintenance work could prove to be the exception
2 – ITS OVER – small drop after getting better in 2/4 LP#s last out with faster fractions in a race ½F longer and TOP EP#s
6 – MELINA’S DREAM -Samy Camacho gets off the 3 – who he rode in every start – to come here where he rose once. A Big tell, ATB better in last
3 – MORE MUCHO – 4SP# Increases, small weight break, nose from winning two in row, 2/4f improvement in last
4 – ROCKY DICE
7 – FIERCE WARRIOR
Race 7 (LS) – 1 1/16 Miles Turf – 77 Races, 52 won off the pace, 9 w2w -PP: Rail Bias, 2/3 & 8+ >4-7
There are two speed horses, both winning with 1s across the PP lines. There are two more that chase the front group and the rest stay off the pace and close. The danger is the two E types burn each other at a distance and surface that doesn’t favor speed.
6 – EL SAMURO – going to take a flier here, has the best LP# by a long, long way. Only 2nd try on grass, missed the board in the other, but OFF Record 3/2-0-1 says should be OK
2 – D’CRAZINESS – is ¾ a length from winning five of last six, some early race regression in last but LP improvement – upgrade to Samy Camacho ridden 2x – both wins
1 – SANDY LANE KITTEN – probably rides shotgun all the way around the track before making his move. Jy/Tr combo Ademar Santos and Juan Arriagada winners 3/4 and 100% ITM
7 – OBIWAN – tough call over 5, chased crazy early fractions in last and still has enough for some LP improvement – should be fit
5 – OUTRAGEOUS BET
Race 8 – 6 Furlongs – 110 Races, 75 won by speed, 36 w2w – PP: Inside 3 Bias, 4+ fair
It’s a deep field and there could be some giddy up and go. Eight of the 11 got wins either on the lead or close to it. If they all try the same path today, it’s gonna get heated, which could tilt the track towards late legs.
4 – R LOVE ON THE RUN – could be the pacesetter and is making 1st start off the claim and dropping for tr Gerald Bennet – drop off the clam 23% winner vs 15% overall – alpha move
8 – GONE DREAMING – walking up the position performance ladder, nice mid race improvement in last
10 – BAHAMA PEARL – last race was way better than it looks on paper, faster fraction despite going 1 ½ longer, cut back today could be the answer
9 – DONTLOSETHATNUMBER – TLRSP# in blowout MDN win in 10th try, crazy good LP improvement. Same race equals same result – could bounce
Race 9 – 1 Mile Turf – 104 Races – 60 won off the pace, 17 w2w – PP: Rail penalty, 2+ mostly fair
Not a real frontrunner in here, most prefer to be mid-pack or back. Three like to chase the leader and that pack will likely produce the pacesetter; wouldn’t be surprised to see moderate fractions and the possibility of a w2w winner.
1 – PROPER MANNERS – has two wins in three at TB – stretching out for the first time, hoping for a w2w effort
6 – HOITY TOITY – had significant EP improvement in her last versus some of the fastest fractions she’s faces, +11 and +18 variant – she won’t see that here
5 – MORGAN’S Z VA – missed as the public’s choice in last, tr Ron Potts rebounds at 23% vs 11% overall
3 – SENSIBLE MYTH – has the top LP #s, toss last – rider lost irons
