Horse Racing Picks, Analysis, Handicapping and Tips
Terry returns! He and Rich discuss…
Horse Racing Picks
Turf Paradise Full Card Picks
Hot Dog and Prime Rib Pick 4s
Guaranteed Tip Sheet Free Track: Mahoning Valley
Turf Paradise Horse Racing Picks and Commentary
Terry “Hollywood” Hay’s Handicapping
Race 1
6 – Knockon – Finished 2nd vs tougher in her last race after taking a one and a half month break and got the highest last race speed rating – Drops in class today.
5 – Stormy Gale – She ran poorly in her last race after veering out at the start- She has finished in the money in 33% of his races during her career – She drops in class today and the trainer wins 18% of the time when his entry has been off 46-90 days.
4 – Critical Condition – She finished 3rd vs tougher in her last race, drops in class today and has a good 4F workout on April 01.
1 – Fully Compliant – She finished 3rd vs tougher in her last race and then took a 10-month break – She has a decent workout on 01Apr Tup 4f ft :47 H 14/56.
Alternate:
2 – Little Lily Lu
3 – Tequila Rita
Race 2
5 – Mischief Mama – She won her last race at Turf Paradise receiving the highest last race speed rating and the trainer wins 36% of the time when bringing back a horse who won their last claiming race – The jockey in the last 7 days has this record (29 17-2-3).
1 – Brio Is Awesome – She has been competing in sprints in California and tries Turf Paradise for the first time – She switches to a high % winning jockey and the trainer wins 42% of the time in a 2nd start with a turn – Her best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters.
2 – Kid Cat – She won a race at Turf Paradise and then in the next race she broke slowly and was squeezed finishing a disappointing 4th- She has a decent workout on 09Mar Tup 5f ft 1:01© H 4/10.
4 – Dodropin – She ran 2nd vs similar in her last race, the trainer wins 20% of the time in sprints and the jockey the last 7 days has this record (26 8-3-4).
Alternate:
6 – Blue Gessami
7 – Michelle Who
Race 3
4 – Coastal King – He is knocking at the door running 2nd in his last three races and if he can get a speed rating of 75 or better, he should win. – He has a trainer who wins 32% of the time when he brings a beaten favorite back to race again and his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters (tie).
7 – Memolotsamischief – He finished 3rd vs similar in last race – He has plenty of early speed to lead the race to a win and a decent workout on 01Apr Tup 4f ft :47.1 H 17/56.
6 – Saint Pieus – His Dam has 1 winner from 1 starter, the trainer wins 40% of the time in dirt starts and the breeding suits today’s sprint distance – The jockey in the last 7 days has this record (29 17-2-3).
3 – Dark n’ Handsome– He has not raced in more than 8 months, but his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters (tie) and he has several good workouts in preparation for this race.
Alternate:
9 – Red Hurricane
2 – Spinning Red
Race 4
2 – Sly – He tried a 100K race at Sunland Park without success and now returns to Turf Paradise where he won his last race at today’s distance – The trainer wins 50% of the time in the 2nd race after claiming a horse and the jockey in the last 7 days has this record (29 17-2-3).
6 – Tw Skipping Stones – He won his last race at Turf Paradise and the trainer wins 25% of the time when bringing back the winner of their last race.
1 – We’re Just Sayin – He finished 3rd (on Dirt) in last race earning the highest last race speed rating, the rail post is winning at 22% clip, and he has a trainer who in the last 14 days has this record Trainer in last 14 days (6 3-0-1).
5 – Nolongerahobby – He finished 3rd in last race after he checked at the ¼ pole. He has a good trainer and jockey.
Alternate:
3 – Many Roses
4 – Provost
Race 5
4 – Cashlings – He ran disappointing in his last race after having trouble in the race and coming wide into the stretch – The trainer wins 50% of the time after dropping a horse off a claim.
9 – Add On – He drops in class today, the trainer wins 20% of the time in sprints and the jockey in the last 7 days has this record (26 8-3-4).
6 – Testing the Waters– He finished 8th after coming 8-wide into the stretch – He drops in class today; the trainer wins 32% of the time when shipping a horse in to run and he has a bullet 3F workout on 05Apr Sun 3f ft :35.3 B 1/7
7 – Storming Warrior – He has a high % winning trainer and has a jockey who in the last 7 days has this record (29 17-2-3).
Alternate:
1 – Rousing Rubble
2 – Paitaska
Race 6
4 – Eyes for Gold – She ran 2nd vs similar in her last race, has the highest last race speed rating and her best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters the trainer who wins 32% of the time when bringing a beaten favorite back to race again.
2 – Temporarily – She drops in class today and has a trainer/jockey combo in the last 14 days has this record (4 2-0-1).
5 – Curlin Blessing – She ran 4th in her last race and the Jockey in last 7 days has this record (26 8-3-4).
3 – Kynlie’s Empire – She ran 2nd vs similar (on Turf) in her last race the jockey in last 7 days has this record (29 17-2-3).
Alternate:
8 – Stubborn Love
9 – Lucy K
Race 7
8 – Jake the Great – He won his last race at Turf Paradise at one mile and cuts back to 6-furlongs which could help – He has a high % winning trainer who wins 28% of the races when bringing a horse back who won their last race and switches to a high % winning jockey who in the last 7 days has this record (29 17-2-3).
6 – Parley Street – He took a 2-month break and then ran 5th in his first race back only losing 2-3/4 lengths – He followed with a bullet workout on 05Apr Tup 3f ft :36 H 1/17 and likes the distance finishing in the money in 55% of the races during his career.
9 – Tres Chiflados – He has early speed and may go to the front and lead all the way – He has a high % winning trainer and likes Turf Paradise.
2 – Top Rocket- Won his last race at Turf Paradise earning the highest last race speed rating (tie), has a high % winning trainer and switches to a high % jockey.
Alternate:
10 – Omache Kid
7 – I Am Allthatyouare
Race 8
7 – Holy Cross – He finished in the money in his last four races, winning one – He has a trainer/jockey combo in the last 14 days who has this record (2 2-0-0).
8 – Circle West – He won two races in a row at Turf Paradise, then took 2 -months off and then had a good workout on 03Apr Tup 5f ft :56.1 H.
3 – Give Em Heck Beck – He ran 4th on the turf in his last race at Turf Paradise and the wins 25% of his Turf starts.
1 – N. K. Rocket Man – He does well at Turf Paradise, at the distance and on the turf.
Alternate:
6 – Meet Joe
5 – Audace
Rich’s Ranks
Race 1 – 5 ½ Furlongs – 89 Races, 74 won by speed, 38 w2w – PP: Slight rail penalty, 4-7 small edge
3 – Tequila Rita – tied for biggest drop from MCL 10k to 3.5 K, solid 4f improvement in last, resume says better in round two off the bench
6 – Knockon – a pair of decent works since last, small drop in class
4 – Critical Condition – 3SP# increases, another with a big mid race pace
5 – Stormy Gale – is the other 10k dropper and has some EP in a field that lacks giddy up and go
1 – Fully Compliant
2 – Little Lily Lu
Race 2 – 5 ½ Furlongs – 89 Races, 74 won by speed, 38 w2w – PP: Slight rail penalty, 4-7 small edge
5 – Mischief Mama – better ATB in last switches to jy Harry Hernandez, tr Dan McFarlane winner 4/11 (36%) claim repeaters vs 16% overall
4 – Dodropin – much better at the end of her last outing, 3 SP# increases, shortening up 1 furlong
6 – Blue Gessami – last W was at TP, loves the distance 5/1-2-1, stronger internals last effort
1 – Brio Is Awesome – 4/7 winners (43%) horses making 2nd start for Mary Tate, $1 ROI, ITM ¾ at the distance
3 – Navarones Sparkle
2 – Kid Cat
Race 3 – 6 Furlongs – 148 Races, 111 won by speed, 53 w2w -PP: fair 1-7, 8+ penalty
8 – Poverty Bay – if those workouts are accurate, then this one smokes them
9 – Red Hurricane – $50k horse, more than all the rest combined, Eddie C angle, bullet work two back followed by maintenance work after – was 4/5 favorite in last in August
6 – Saint Pieus – 1st time starter with top jy Harry Hernandez and has good works too
4 – Coastal King – TPLRSP# as a BTN FAV, trainer Vann Belvior rebounds at 32% vs 17% overall
5 – Shaman Chief
7 – Memolotsamischief
Race 4 – 1 Mile Turf – 61 Races, 41 won by speed, 18 w2w -PP: strong inside 3 bias, 8+>4-7
6 – Tw Skipping Stones – is coming off one of his best races and PPs say he’ll be better in 2nd off the bench
1 – We’re Just Sayin – TLRSP# and gets the high percentage rail, incredible LP jump in last
5 – Nolongerahobby – 4SP# Increases, solid at the distance 5/1-2-1
3 – Many Roses – GG Shipper, has a lot of EP, figures to be better in 2nd start after a layoff
2 – Sly
7 – Golden Tiger
Race 5 – 6 Furlongs – 148 Races, 111 won by speed, 53 w2w -PP: fair 1-7, 8+ penalty
3 – Colonel Mike – Z pattern in last, major 2f EP and LP improvement, BTN FAV
2 – Paitaska – Tie TLRSP# and drops in class, one fast work and a maintenance work since
1 – Rousing Rubble – other Tie TLRSP#, tr Miguel Hernandez 3/8 (37.5) down 2 classes, much sharper early fractions in last
4 – Cashlings – 1st off the claim, 25% winner (59 races) vs 19% for tr James Brown, dropping 2 classes, trainer drop off the claim 2/2 ITM w/ $10.50 ROI
9 – Add On
7 – Storming Warrior
Race 6 – 6 Furlongs – 148 Races, 111 won by speed, 53 w2w -PP: fair 1-7, 8+ penalty
3 – Kynlie’s Empire – a little better ATB w/ jy Harry Hernandez in her last, flips back to dirt, 17% angle for tr Scott Rollins vs 12% overall
4 – Eyes for Gold – TLRSP# as BTN FAV, tr Frank Lucarelli rebounds at 33% (98 races) vs 11% overall
8 – Stubborn Love – 1st time starter with some solid works, tr Craig Smith hits at 21% 1st out
2 – Temporarily – drops from 75k nonGradedStakes, last race was better than it looks as fraction were similar at 1m compared to 6 furlongs
5 – Curlin Blessing
7 – Shirl’s House
Race 7 – 6 Furlongs – 148 Races, 111 won by speed, 53 w2w -PP: fair 1-7, 8+ penalty
6 – Parley Street – better ATB in last, bullet work since, should step forward in 2nd off bench
9 – Tres Chiflados – should be on the gas all the way around the track, truest E horse, finished 2nd by a ½ length 2 back at the same conditions except ½ furlong shorter
2 – Top Rocket – TLRSP# and claim repeater 32% winner for tr: Justin Evans vs 24% ovreall
1 – Have a Lil Pepper – ran some faster fractions in his last, has plenty of EP, just needs to run the right pace
8 – Jake the Great
10 – Omache Kid
Race 8 – 7 ½ Furlongs Turf – 48 Races, 27 won by speed, 13 w2w -PP: 1-7 fair, big drop 8+
7 – Holy Cross – jy switch to Harry Hernandez – gets off #3, better LP in his last, 3sp# increases
3 – Give Em Heck Beck – taking a decent drop from OC 20, Tr Bart Hone win turf at 26% vs 20% overall
5 – Audace – ran his best races recently on turf, has some of the best LP#s, QTA from April 1
6 – Meet Joe – usually runs well off the bench, 12f of good works getting ready
8 – Circle West
1 – N. K. Rocket Man
