Horse Racing Picks, Analysis, Handicapping and Tips
Terry and Rich discuss…
Horse Racing Picks
Belmont Park Full Card Picks
Terry’s Keeneland Park Best Bet
Hot Dog and Prime Rib Pick 4s
Guaranteed Tip Sheet Free Track: Turf Paradise
Belmont Park Horse Racing Tips and Commentary
Terry “Hollywood” Hay’s Handicapping
Race 1
6 – Saratoga Chrome – She has finished in the money in three races out of four career races, winning one and running 2nd vs similar in last race – She has the highest last race speed rating, her best turf speed is fastest among today’s starters, and she has a jockey who in last 7 days has this record (24 6-2-5).
4 – Out of Sight – She has finished in the money in three out of her last four races, finishing 2nd vs similar in last race – The trainer in the last 14 days has this record (8 3-0-1).
7 – Our Jessica – She ran 2nd vs similar in her last race and her best turf speed is faster than the Avg Winning Speed – The trainer in the last 14 days has this record (8 3-0-1).
1 – I’ll Go All In – She has plenty of trouble in her last race finishing 10th on the dirt and now comes back to the turf and returning to a route where she has performed well previously – The rail post is winning at 19% clip and the trainer wins 21% of the time when with 1st time Lasix.
Alternate:
5 – Eau Claire
Race 2
7 – Red Pepper Grill – She has won two races in a row, now going for a hat trip – She can either lead or come from behind.
4 – Bella Principessa – She finished 3rd in last race, can improve while returning to a sprint, her best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters and her jockey in the last 7 days has this record (23 6-3-4).
6 – Stencil – She has won two races out of the last four races at Aqueduct and the trainer/jockey combo in the last 14 days has this record (5 2-0-0).
1 – To a T – She finished 3rd in her last race, the rail post is winning at 39% clip, and she has a great workout on 16Apr Bel tr.t 4f ft :47.3 B 5/221.
Alternate:
2 – Chloe Rose
3 – Gentle Annie
Race 3
6 – No Salt– He won his last race at Aqueduct where he won easily and earned the highest last race speed rating – He has the high % winning jockey Dylan Davis.
7 – Just Right – He has finished in the money in four out of his last five races, winning one of the races, finishing 3rd in his last race and has done well at Belmont Park.
2 – Daddy Knows – He has finished in the money in three out of his last four races, winning one of the races – His best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters and trainer in the last 14 days has this record (9 3-1-0) – He has Sharp 4F workout on 21Apr Bel tr.t 4f ft :48.2 B 7/56.
1 – Invest– He has won two races in a row at Aqueduct and comes back to Belmont Park where he has done well in the past – Jockey Castro Luis Rodriguez rode him on his last two races and returns again to ride in this race and he has a good 4F workout on 23Apr Bel tr.t 4f ft :49.2 B 26/118.
Alternate:
3 – Therisastormbrewin
5 – Bingo John
Race 4
5 – Fomo – He comes in from Laurel to try Belmont Park, drops in class today and has a trainer who wins 44% of the time in Sprints.
2 – Mach One – He won his last race at Aqueduct and has a trainer who wins 33% of the races when bringing a horse to race that has been off 90+ days.
6 – Kid Bourbon – He drops in class today; his best turf speed is fastest among today’s starters and should improve in 2nd start since layoff.
3 – Midaswellrun – He went up in class in her last race and ran a disappointing race and drops in class today to a level that he has done well at in the past – The breeding suggests he will like the grass as the Dam has produced 2 Turf winners, the shorter distance is a plus.
Race 5
2 – Yarrow – He has finished in the money 100% of the time during his young career, finishing 3rd vs similar in his last race and he has a trainer who wins 25% of the time when bringing back a beaten favorite to race again.
3 – Citizen K – He likes the turf, and he was only beaten 1-1/2 lengths vs similar in last start and will be closing from deep.
6 – Safalow’s Mission – He ran a good 3rd in his first race back from a 3-1/2 months break, despite being bumped at the break and forced in – His breeding suggests he will like the grass – The Dam has 2 winners from 4 starters (but 0 Turf winners) and he has a trainer wins 20% of the time when with 2nd time Lasix.
9 – Buckortwo – He ran 2nd vs similar in last race, best turf speed is fastest among today’s starters, can improve with Lasix & Blinkers added and jockey who in last 7 days has this record (24 6-2-5).
Race 6
4 – The Honorable Ruth – She took two months off and then ran last when returning after she stumbled bad at the break and checked. In her next race she ran 4th and improve her speed rating by 21 points. She is ready to run the race that she did in January winning easily.
5 – Predetermined – She won her debut race last April at Keenland and then she was claimed and has not run since – She has been steadily working out with average works and there is not much competition in the race so if she can run like last year she can win.
6 – Bella Domenica – She finished 3rd at Aqueduct and at today’s distance after being off since last August – She has done well at Belmont Park in the past and likes the distance.
8 – Raffinity – She has early speed should, improve at the shorter distance and has a jockey who in the last 7 days has this record (23 6-3-4).
Alternate:
1 – Love That Face
7 – Majestic Spirit
Race 7
3 – Repo Rocks – He has finished in the money in five out of his last six races, winning two of the races, he likes Belmont Park finishing in the money three out of four starts, winning one and loves the distance finishing in the money six out of six starts, winning one – He has a bullet 4F workout on 22Apr Bel tr.t 4f ft :47 B 1/55.
1 – Prince James – He finished 4th in his last race after coming wide into the stretch, he has the highest speed figure at today’s distance and the jockey in the last 7 days has this record (23 6-3-4).
2 – More Graytful – He finished 3rd in last race at Aqueduct, his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters and he has a trainer who wins 23% of the time when bringing a horse back to race after a 46-90 day break – The shorter distance should help and he has a jockey who in the last 7 days has this record (24 6-2-5).
6 – Spun and Won – He ran 2nd in last race at Laurel and comes to try Belmont Park for the first time, he has a trainer who wins 18% of the time in the 2nd race off a layoff and has a Sharp 4F workout on 21Apr Cns 4f ft :52 B 3/19.
Alternate:
5 – Competitive Saint
4 – Fitzpatrick
Race 8
5 – Dark Money – He has won four out of the last five races, winning the last one and he has a trainer who wins 20% of the time when bringing a horse back to race after winning their last race.
6 – Doubly Blessed – He won his last race at Aqueduct, likes Belmont Park, and has a jockey who in the last 7 days has this record (23 6-3-4).
7 – Its All Relevant – He won his last race at Aqueduct, has won three out of six starts at Belmont Park and his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters.
4 – Baby I’m Perfect – He won his last race at Aqueduct and likes the distance winning two out of four starts.
Alternate:
3 – Ryan’s Cat
8 – Uno
Race 9
4 – Gracefully Wild – She ran 2nd in his last race at Aqueduct – The breeding suggests she will like the grass and the Dam has 3 winners from 4 starters and 2 Turf winners.
3 – Draw Off – She finished 3rd in her last race and may improve while trying grass as the Dam has 3 winners from 6 starters and 3 Turf winners and the trainer wins 25% of the time when using 1st time blinkers – She has a jockey who in the last 7 days has this record (23 6-3-4) and she has a Sharp 4F workout on 22Apr Bel tr.t 4f ft :48 B 7/55
2 – White Hot – She finished 3rd vs similar in her last race and her best turf speed is fastest among today’s starters.
10 – Dini’s Destiny – She finished 4th in her last race and may improve while trying grass as the Dam has 2 winners from 5 starters and 1 Turf winner and she was well bet in debut.
Alternate:
6 – Celine the Queen
13 – Lemme Get It
Rich’s Ranks
Race 1 – 1 1/16 miles Turf, 16 races, 10 won off the pace, 3 w2w – PP: inside out bias
6 – SARATOGA CHROME – is a neck and ¾ a length from being undefeated in 3 since moving to grass, can win from front, middle or back, 1st Lasix
4 – OUT OF SIGHT – has been off since early December, but has 22f works since March 6
7 – OUR JESSICA – tried turf for the first time last out and should only be better in 2nd grass start and second off the bench
3 – RHEAUME – looks the best of the 1st time starters, hopefully she’s a stalker closer because Trevor does a great with off the pace types
Race 2 – 6 ½ furlongs, 31 races, 18 won by speed, 8 w2w – PP: huge inside 3 bias, 8+>4-7
2 – CHLOE ROSE – LS – bullet and go work, Belmont 3/1-0-1, distance 2/1-1-0, tr jy combo Jose Lezcano and Gustavo Rodriguez ITM 8/9 with 0.98 ROI
7 – RED PEPPER GRILL – Belmont 2/0-2-0, won last two easily, small weight break, solid late pace improvement
4 – BELLA PRINCIPESSA – would be #1 rated on turf, better on off dirt than fast, upgrade if it’s wet
1 – TO A T – you have to take the rail and gets Jose Ortiz, last race was better ATB
Race 3 – 1 1/16 mile, 19 races, 12 won by speed, 6 w2w -PP: fair 1-7, 8+ penalty
6 – NO SALT – has the TLRSP# by a wide margin, even with a bounce he could be tough to beat
2 – DADDY KNOWS – Belmont 8/0-4-1, maybe didn’t like the mud in his last, solid work between races, should be close all the way around the track
7 – JUST RIGHT – ran better ¼ and ½ fractions in his last, looking for more in the second run off some rest
1 – INVEST – taking a shot here, last race first 2/4 and especially 6f times were much faster than previous 1 mile start
Race 4 – 6 furlongs inner turf, 29 races, 16 won by speed, 7 w2w -PP: 1-3 and 8+ > 4-7
6 – KID BOURBON – has been facing much tougher company than most of the other turf horses, drops in class and could be catching a very beatable field
2 – MACH ONE – is making his first start since mid-October, but has run well in 3 of 4 first starts, including debut, could be on the lead with EZ fractions
10 – BOOM BOOM KABOOM – took 24 races to win one, but it was big with strong 2/4f improvement
9 – KARNAK – kind of hard to look past tr Arnaus Delacour winning 11/19 (53%) in 1st off the claim and like the MSW win vs the rest getting 1st W in mcl except top pick
Race 5 – 6 furlongs turf, 8 races, 50/50, 2 w2w -PP: Rail and 4-7 a little better than the rest
2 – YARROW – gamblers’ fallacy horse, is due with turf record 4/0-1-3 and Belmont 1/0-1-0, bullet and go
3 – CITIZEN K – will be charging late, watching Jose Ortiz at Gulfstream, looked to me like he worked on patience and this horse fits that style
9 – BUCKORTWO – has some early pace, good fir for jy Kendrick Carmouche and gets 1st Lasix
4 – CENTRAL PRIDE – TLRSP#, 28f works since last race, 1st go on grass, 12% angle for tr John Terranova, III
Race 6 – 6 furlongs, 49 races, 34 won by speed, 20 w2w -PP: 2/3 best, rail a little better than the rest
6 – BELLA DOMENICA – tr/jy combo of Jose Gomez and Rudy Rodriguez hit a 33% with 4.51 ROI, should be as good or better in 2nd off the break
8 – RAFFINITY – big drop and shortens up with early speed, has BY FAR the best Bellmont #s
1 – LOVE THAT FACE – usually break well and has a some of the best EP#s, distance 2/1-1-0
9 – BOSS CARA – really not much difference between 5,7,9 – ran TLRSP#, drops in class, concerned fractions were a little slower in last
Race 7 – 6 furlongs, 49 races, 34 won by speed, 20 w2w -PP: 2/3 best, rail a little better than the rest
2 – MORE GRAYTFUL – should be forwardly placed from start to finish, similar fractions in last despite going 7f vs 6 the race before
1 – PRINCE JAMES – had a tough trip last out, going wide, a maintenance and strong work since suggests a rebound
3 – REPO ROCKS – has some of the best Belmont numbers, 4/1-1-1 and ITM 6/6 at the distance
6 – SPUN AND WON – jockey upgrade to Jose, record says he’ll be better in the 2nd start after a layoff, likes the distance too 3/2-0-1
Race 8 – 7 furlongs, 12 races, 50/50, 2 w2w -PP: Rail and 4-7 bias, 0 wins from 8+
7 – ITS ALL RELEVANT – big time improvement in his last, but is an all or nothing at Belmont 6/3-0-0
6 – DOUBLY BLESSED – looks to be better in his third start off the bench, big win in last with a pair of works since
5 – DARK MONEY – has been on a roll, just ¾ a length from winning 5 in a row, likes Belmont 8/4-2-0
4 – BABY I’M PERFECT – very strong last outing, better 4f and LP# off very strong #s in previous race
Race 9 – 6 furlongs inner turf, 29 races, 16 won by speed, 7 w2w -PP: 1-3 and 8+ > 4-7
6 – CELINE THE QUEEN – has the best EP# in the field and gets a wight break, increased SP# in each race, one of three making Tom Carley Drop
4 – GRACEFULLY WILD – ran her best race in a muddy track, usually a good sign for 1st effort on grass
3 – DRAW OFF – getting 1st time blinkers, a 26% angle for trainer George Weaver, better times in last effort and maybe better in round 2
7 – WINTER SIREN – going to take a flier here, debuted at MSW 70, bet to $2.70, 18f works since, #9 IMPAZIBLE DREAM is a similar story w/ 1st Lasix
