Horse Racing Picks, Analysis, Handicapping and Tips
Horse Racing Picks
Colonial Downs Full Card Picks
Hot Dog and Prime Rib Pick 4s
Picks with the Professor’s MLB Play of the Day
Guaranteed Tip Sheet Free Track: Mountaineer Park
Colonial Downs Horse Racing Tips
Terry “Hollywood” Hay’s Handicap
Race 1
5– Union League – He finished 4th after having trouble during the race as the heavily bet favorite in his debut, the trainer in the last 14 days has this record (5 2-0-0) and he has a good 4F workout on Aug-27.
1 – Timo – He switches to a high % winning jockey and has a trainer who wins 36% of the time when taking blinkers off.
9 – Remote – He appears to be able to lead a race to the finish line or come from off the pace, has the highest last race speed rating, drops in class today and his best turf speed is fastest among today’s starters.
6 – Tiger to Remember – Returns after a 11-month break and has been working out well for his return, his jockey in the last 7 days has this record (7 3-1-0).
Alternate:
8 – Smooth Sailing
4 – Spiritual Ghost
Race 2
7 – Blitzkrieg – He finished 3rd vs tougher in his last race, drops in class today, has the highest speed figure at today’s distance and his best turf speed is fastest among today’s starters.
4 – Scanno – He won his last race at Colonial Downs and has a high % winning trainer.
8 – Strike Me Down – He won his last race at Colonial Downs and has a high % winning trainer and the highest last race speed rating (tie).
1 – Seven Channels – He Finished 3rd in last race and is ridden by high % winning jockey Irad Ortiz.
Alternate:
2 – Land Mark Deal
Race 3
10 – Magical Warrior – He won his last race at Tampa Bay Downs, has a high % winning jockey and a trainer who wins 50% of the races when dropping a horse off win.
8 – Aristocratic– He ran 2nd in his last race at Saratoga receiving the highest last race speed rating.
1 – Reed Kan – He should improve while returning to dirt, has the highest speed figure at today’s distance and his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters.
5 – El Guapo – He tried turf and now is back to dirt where he finished in the money in four races in a row, winning one of the starts.
Race 4
4 – Jilted Bride – She finished 2nd in her last race, has the highest last race speed rating and the highest speed figure at today’s distance.
6 – Battle Bling – She ran 2nd vs tougher in her last race, drops in class today and her best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters.
1 – Hashtag Lucky – She won last her race at Colonial Downs, has a high % winning jockey and a trainer in the last 14 days has this record (6 3-0-2).
9 – Semble Juste – She won her last race and has a good 4F workout on Aug-27.
Alternate:
7 – Tap Dance Fever
Race 5
2 – Inventing Anna – She ran 2nd vs similar in her only start, was well bet in the debut and switches to a high % winning jockey.
13 – Humor Sense – She finished 3rd vs similar in her last race, Lasix is added and has a good 4F workout on Aug-31.
1 – Lure’em In – She is a first-time starter, has a jockey who in the last 7 days has this record (14 4-2-2) and a good 4F workout on Aug-30.
10 – Silent Swinger – She ran 2nd vs similar in her last start and improved her speed rating.
Alternate:
5 – Hang the Moon
6 – Souper Tropical
Race 6
2 – Rarified Flair – He won his last race at Saratoga; the trainer wins 24% of Non-Graded Stake races he has a horse entered in, his best turf speed is fastest among today’s starters and Lasix is added.
8 – Determined Crush – He finished 2nd in his last race at Colonial Downs, has a trainer who wins 22% of the time when bringing back a beaten favorite to race again and a jockey who in the last 7 days has this record (8 3-0-1).
1 – Gigante – He won his last race at Colonial Downs; the rail post is winning at 24% clip and has a jockey who in the last 7 days has this record (7 3-1-0).
4 – Duke of Gloucester – He finished in the money in both of his career races and has a good 4F workout on Aug-28.
Alternate:
6 – Artico
7 – Free Soul
Race 7
8 – Nobody Listens – He has won seven out of fourteen career races, has the highest last race speed rating, switches to a high % winning trainer who wins 29% of Non-Graded Stake races, and has a good 4F workout on Aug-30.
7 – Matta – He has finished in the money in his last ten races, winning three, his best turf speed is fastest among today’s starters, and he has a bullet 4F workout Aug-27.
4 – County Final – He won his last race at Colonial Downs and his jockey in the last 7 days has this record (7 3-1-0).
10 – Justwaveandsmile – He has won three races in a row and has a trainer who wins 23% of the time when shipping a horse in to run.
Alternate:
9 – Cannon’s Roar
3 – Yes and Yes
Race 8
5 – Grand Oak – He has the highest last race speed rating; his best turf speed is fastest among today’s starters, and he has a high % winning trainer.
1 – Call Me Ice Man – He won his last race at Colonial Downs, has a high % winning trainer, switches to a high % winning jockey and a good 4F workout on Aug-28.
8 – Flamingo Faze – He won his debut race at Colonial Downs and switches to a high % winning jockey.
7 – Fit to Fly – He has high % winning trainer, his breeding suggests he will like the grass as his Dam has produced 1 Turf winner, his jockey in the last 7 days has this record (14 4-2-2) and he has a good 4F workout on Aug-27.
Alternate:
3 – Bal a Kazoo
4 – Opposites Attract
Race 9
3 – Catiche– She ran 2nd (on AW) in her last race, can either lead or come from off the pace and her Dam has produced 1 Turf winner.
13 – Oakhurst – She drops in class today; has the highest last race speed rating (tie) and her best turf speed is fastest among today’s starters.
9 – Sparkle Blue – She won her last race at Delaware Park, has a high % winning trainer who wins 25% of the races with 1st time Lasix and in the last 14 days the trainer has this record (5 2-0-0).
2 – Surprisingly – She won her last race at Ellis Park, has the highest last race speed rating (tie), her trainer in the last 14 days has this record (5 3-0-0) and she has a high % winning jockey.
Alternate:
11 – Therearenorules
7 – Pharoah’s Song
Race 10
11 – Grand David – He is going for a fourth win in a row, winning his last race at Gulfstream Park and trainer who wins 23% of the time when shipping a horse in to run.
9 – Limited Liability – He has finished in the money in five of six career races, winning two of the starts and his trainer in the last 14 days has this record (5 3-0-0).
7 – Unanimous Consent – He has won three out his four starts on the turf, is trained by Chad Brown and ridden by Manny Franco.
5 – Catnip – He won his last race at Colonial Downs, has a high % winning trainer and a high % winning jockey.
Alternate:
4 – California Frolic
6 – Marwad
Race 11
1 – Trail Ridge Road – She ran 2nd vs similar in her last race, has a high % winning trainer and a high % winning jockey who in the last 14 days has this record (14 4-2-2).
8 – Soft Touch – She won her last race at Colonial Downs, has a high % winning trainer, switches to a high % winning jockey and has a bullet 4F workout on Aug-26.
12 – Nicolar – She ran 2nd in last race and likes the turf.
10 – Batyah– She finished 3rd vs similar in her last race, she has the highest last race speed rating and the trainer in the last 14 days has this record (5 2-0-0).
Alternate:
9 – Pegs A. K. Girl
Rich’s Ranks
Race 1 – 1 ¼ Miles Outer Turf, 6 races, 4 won by speed, 2 w2w – PP: None from the rail, 1 from 2/3, fair 4-7, big bonus 8+
9 – REMOTE – speed numbers are so much better than any others, will need to regress a lot or others come way forward
8 – SMOOTH SAILING – 1st time starter, 1 is probably a safer play here, but the Ohfer rail is concerning
1 – TIMO – the only one that’s been close to the 9 in terms of speed numbers, much improved early in last, but tailed off late
5 – UNION LEAGUE has a ++ LP advantage based on debut, was $1.80 favorite in Delaware debut, gets Joel Rosario, should be able to capitalize on late run
Race 2 – 1 Mile Inner Turf – 48 races, 27 won by speed, 8 w2w – PP: small penalty 1-3, 4-7 bonus and best, 8+ small penalty
8 – STRIKE ME DOWN – left arrow horse with top EP/LP, CNL 4/2-2-0, tie TLRSP#, resume says 3rd off the break could be the best
4 – SCANNO – owns the top LP#s, explosive LP in last, making 3rd start after more than a year off
1 – SEVEN CHANNELS – real hard call over the 7, but 7 has been off for more than a year, lone pressure horse with some LP and gets Irad
7 – BLITZKRIEG – been off a long time but was running against graded races, if he is ready, but works are blah
Race 3 – 6 Furlongs, 22 races, 15 won by speed, 7 w2w – PP: outside in bias, smaller rail penalty than 2/3, 4-7 bonus, 8+ by far the best
8 – ARISTOCRATIC – BB – has a +2f advantage and +++4f edge, should run away from these early and try not to stall out late
10 – MAGICAL WARRIOR – is undefeated in his last 3, improving the SP# in each, 2/2 at the distance, top EP/LP combo
6 – TRASHTALKINYANKEE – distance 8/2-2-1, resume says 3rd off the bench should be the same to better than the last
5 – EL GUAPO – one for 1 on Colonial dirt, lets see if he can do it 2x at a price
Race 4 – 1 1/16 Miles, 3 races, 2 win off the pace, 0 w2w -PP 1 winner from rail, 2/3 and 4-7
4 – JILTED BRIDE – not sure I’ve seen this since posting pace worksheets, ++ EP/LP edge, TLSRP# and distance 10/3-2-4
1 – HASHTAG LUCKY – left arrow horse, has a + advantage at 2/4f, 1 for 1 at Colonial, which was her last race, much better 1 mile fractions than anything she did in last 10, PPs say big chance she improves in R2 off the bench
6 – BATTLE BLING – ML favorite dropping from a G2, of since early July, OK works getting ready, looks beatable
9 – SEMBLE JUSTE – winner of two in row and has decent works getting ready to return off the break
Race 5 – 6 Furlongs, 22 races, 15 won by speed, 7 w2w – PP: outside in bias, smaller rail penalty than 2/3, 4-7 bonus, 8+ by far the best
Going to take some 1st time starters as flyers – didn’t work yesterday, Gamblers’ Fallacy, it’s due today
6 – SOUPER TROPICAL – bullet and go, alpha angle
5 – HANG THE MOON – Eddie C angle, bullet, maintenance and then go
7 – DREAMING OF SNOW – tr Gerald Bennet has some of the best #s with 1st timers and Debut MSW, winning at 32% with jy Samy Camacho, some of the Monmouth works look really good
9 – FLYIN BESSIE – $230k horse, nothing else comes close, tr Steve Asmussen does OK with MSWers
Race 6 – 1 1/16 Miles Inner Turf, 42 races, 22 won off the pace, 8 w2w – PP: definitive inside out bias, rail wins nearly 2x what it should, 2-7 fair, 8+ discount
7 – FREE SOUL – has a +2f edge and a + EP/LP advantage, won first race on turf as ½ favorite after 4 on dirt
1 – GIGANTE – rides the 24% winning rail, big step up in last on dirt, debut on turf wasn’t anywhere near as good, maybe needed one
2 – RARIFIED FLAIR – broke MDN in 3rd try, $105k at Toga with speed, gets 1st Lasix, distance is no problem 2/1-0-1
8 – DETERMINED CRUSH – better fractions in last at 1 1/16 miles than 1 mile in debut, don’t believe the speed figure decline – might get overlooked as a result.
Race 7 – 5 ½ Furlongs Outer Turf, 61 races, 39 won by speed, 11 w2w – PP: outside in bias, 1-3 penalty with rail the worst, 4-7 fair, 8+ a bonus
7 – MATTA – ITM 8/3-1-3 at the distance, two bullet works getting ready
4 – COUNTY FINAL – won his last, the first on Colonial Downs grass, tr Steven Asmussen repeats at 21%
8 – NOBODY LISTENS – has a +4f advantage, needs to take the form from Indy versus better company today
3 – YES AND YES – drops from a G3, much better late in last, just looks like he needs at least 6f
Race 8 – 5 ½ Furlongs Outer Turf, 61 races, 39 won by speed, 11 w2w – PP: outside in bias, 1-3 penalty with rail the worst, 4-7 fair, 8+ a bonus
7 – FIT TO FLY – has a +2f and almost ++4f edge, gets first Lasix, like the combo of EP and Lasix, tr Larry Rivelli 33% on first Lasix and a bullet work since
5 – GRAND OAK – TLRSP#, much better in the first ½ mile in last and likely to be better in R2 off the bench
1 – CALL ME ICE MAN – wanted to rank higher, but the rail doesn’t work, but tr Michael Campbell wins at 31% with 2 yos
6 – EVENLY DIVIDED – got the maiden win in first on grass, like Trevor McCarthy on horses that come from off the pace
Race 9 – 1 1/8 Miles Inner Turf, 9 races, 6 won off the pace, 3 w2w – PP: all wins 4-7
13 – OAKHURST – Tie TLRSP#, has powerful LP and should be better in 3rd off the break and off the class drop
3 – CATICHE – first on grass but AW 6/2-3-0 can be a good indication of grass success, tr Jonathan Thomas 28% first on grass
5 – FULL COUNT FELICIA – not the biggest fan of MSW risers unless TLRSP#, check tied w/ 13, and has a bullet work since – expecting another sharp effort
14 – THISNAMEISOKAY – Left arrow horse that has the top EP/LP combo in the field, also tied TLRSP#
2 – SURPRISINGLY
Race 10 – 1 1/8 Miles Inner Turf, 3 races, 6 won off the pace, 3 w2w – PP: all wins 4-7
7 – UNANIMOUS CONSENT – won his first three races and then tried a G2, it was the only time he made it 2 races in a row without a break, he got a break today 3/3 off the bench
5 – CATNIP – has the top LP#s, wide trip last out taking MSW, again, not the biggest fan of the class rise
10 – CAPENSIS – has the top EP/LP combo in the field, had some issues in last race as the even money favorite, clean trip is all that’s needed
9 – LIMITED LIABILITY – turf 6/2-0-3, been running in Graded Stakes 4 of 6 career starts, will close late, but tends to be way back, traffic could be an issue
Race 11 – 1 3/16 Miles Outer Turf, no races
8 – SOFT TOUCH –MSW riser, bullet work between races, should be close to the pace in a field full of closers
1 – TRAIL RIDGE ROAD – is 3/4 a length from being undefeated in two, rail could be an issue
12 – NICOLAR – missed by a head in his last, real close to winning 3 of 4 with Jorge Ruiz riding
10 – BATYAH – TLRSP#, comes from the clouds and just worry about traffic, although he gets Joel Rosario who should give him a great ride
Colonial Downs Pace Worksheet
