Hopefully, Robert can help Rich (and maybe others) unlock the key to winning at Canada’s premier track, Woodbine. Maybe it’s the all-weather surface that dumbfounds Rich? Whatever it is, Robert will tell us the secret to Woodbine and help us make picks for a trio of Breeders’ Cup “Win and You are In” races.
Woodbine Race 7 – $500,000 PATTISON SUMMER STAKES GRADE I
Woodbine Race 9 – $1M WOODBINE MILE STAKES GRADE I
Woodbine Race 10 – $500,000 NATALMA STAKES GRADE I
Woodbine Racecourse Horse Racing Picks and Analysis
Terry “Hollywood” Hay’s Handicapping
Woodbine Race 7 – $500,000 PATTISON SUMMER STAKES GRADE I
1 – Mysterious Night comes in from Europe after competing in Graded Stake races, winning his last race the Grade 3 Circus Maximus. He is trained by Charles Appleby who has won 40% of his career starts and 100% of time when taking a horse to a distance for the first time.
6 – Philip My Dear has won his only two career races and is going for a hat trick, has high % winning trainer and jockey. He is improving each race and has the highest last race speed rating.
5 – Sammy Stone finished in 2nd in his last start, his maiden race, trying grass for his second start and his trainer in the last 14 days has this record (6 2-1-1)
3 – Appraise ran 4th in his last race after being bumped at the start of the race. He is a closer and I think the extra distance will be a plus for him. His trainer wins 32% of the races when taking a horse from a Sprint to Route.
Woodbine Race 9 – $1M WOODBINE MILE STAKES
3 – Wakanaka came in from Italy and has done very well in Graded races, finishing in the money in all but one race, winning his last race at Woodbine. He has a trainer who wins 24% of the races when bringing a horse back who won their last race. He has a great workout on Sep-10 at Belmont 4f ft :48.1 B 4/113.
2 – Ivar just keeps improving his speed ratings, winning his last race easily with his regular rider Joe Talamo in the irons. He is a Grade 1 winner and has been steadily working out in preparation for this race.
5 – Modern Games comes in from Europe where he has finished in the money in 80% of his starts winning 50% of those starts. He is another horse trained by Charles Appleby.
9 – War Bomber won his last race at Woodbine his third win out of four starts there. He can either go to the front and lead to the finish line or close from off the pace and his trainer wins 25% of the races when bringing a horse back who won their last race.
Woodbine Race 10 – $500,000 NATALMA STAKES GRADE I
1 – Cairo Consort won her last race at Woodbine, she has the highest last race speed rating, her best turf speed is fastest among today’s starters, and she has a good 5F workout on Sep-10.
3 – G Laurie was well bet in her only race and won by six-lengths, a 1-1/16-mile race which shows she can handle the distance. She is trained by a high % winning trainer who wins 21% of the races the second time his entry starts in a grass race.
2 – Collecting Flatter has won two out of three races in her career. She has a trainer/jockey combo who in the last 14 days has this record (7 2-2-1) and she has a good 5F workout on Sept-09.
7 – Courtly Ro won her last race at Woodbine closing at 7-furlongs and the extra furlong should help her chances. She has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Race 7: $1.00 Exacta Box: 1, 3, 5, 6 – $10.00 Win & Place on # 1
Race 9: $1.00 Exacta Box: 2, 3, 5, 9 – $10.00 Win & Place on # 3
Race 10: $1.00 Exacta Box: 1, 2, 3, 7 – $10.00 Win & Place on # 1
Swiss Army Shawn’s Selections
Woodbine Race 7 – $500,000 PATTISON SUMMER STAKES GRADE I
PACE PROJECTION: Looks like possibly two horses try for the early lead the #2 Ninetyfour Expos which I think gets it and the #3 Appraise. There a couple real deep closers including the #5 Sammy Stone and the #6 Philip My Dear.
#6 Philip My Dear– Has won both of his races. The only horse in the field with a win over this turf course and both of his wins came here. Has great connections both Jockey and Trainer winning at over 20%.
#1 Mysterious Night– The only other horse in this field besides my top pick that has more than one career win. We are used to the name Buick and Appleby at this point with them being so successful in these kinds of races. Has never finished outside the money in five career races.
#2 Ninetyfour Expos– Should be the early leader in a race that don’t have that much pace. Stretches out to a mile and if he can go all the way you should get a decent price.
Plays: $20 win #6 $2 keybox 1,6/2,3 $1 tribox 1,2,6
Woodbine Race 9 – $1M WOODBINE MILE STAKES
PACE PROJECTION: There a couple horses in here that want to go right to the front and try to lead them all the way around. The most likely to do that would be #8 Get Smokin. The other 2 who will try and go #1 Mighty Heart and #10 Town Cruise.
#5 Modern Games– Will be tough to beat. Has won five of ten career races all were on the turf. Ran at the BC last year and won for purse money only as he was scratched by mistake. Top connections with Buick and Appleby. Likes the distance, in two starts has a win and a second. Last time out lost to one of the best horses around the undefeated Baaeed.
#3 Wakanaka– Has won seven of thirteen career turf races with another four runner up finishes. This will be the fourth time trying this distance and the previous three he hit the board. Won at Woodbine last time out which was his first try now gets Manny Franco aboard and cuts back in distance from the last start.
#4 Finest Sound– Has hit the board in sixteen of twenty career races on the turf. Last time out in England lost by a neck to Jedoomi who just won a G2 in Ireland last weekend.
PLAYS: $1 exbox 3,4,5 $1 tribox 3,4,5 $10 ex 5/3,4
Woodbine Race 10 – $500,000 NATALMA STAKES GRADE I
PACE PROJECTION: It looks #2 Collecting Flatter will go right to the front and shouldn’t have to many competing for that early lead.
#2 Collecting Flatter– Won her first two career races on the synthetic wire to wire and then tried turf last time out. In that last race she lost to two horses in here however it was the other horse going for the lead in that race that cost #2 Collecting Flatter the chance to win. She did well to battle and hang on for third. In here I don’t see much pace, so she could have it all her way up front. The only issue will be will she get the distance? I will take my chances with the nice price and the pace of the race.
#6 Wickenheiser– Was in the same race as the top pick and only finished 5th however she had to go 8 wide in that race. She was also the betting favorite in that race. Also, with this horse there is no question on the distance as she is bred to go as far as she wants.
#3 G Laurie– She’s only ran once but it was an impressive win on the turf at Colonial. It was also at 1 mile and 1/16. She is the only horse in this field to go over 7 furlongs, so distance is no question for her.
PLAYS: $20 win #2 $1 exbox 2,3,6 $1 tribox 2,3,6
22 to 1 Tom’s Tips
Woodbine Race 7 – $500,000 PATTISON SUMMER STAKES GRADE I
6 – Phillip My Dear
2 for 2 in the win column both from off the pace
Last one in stakes race at WO and went through traffic to win
Speed numbers getting better and should get the distance
1 – Mysterious Night
5 starts 2 wins 1 second 2 thirds
Lost the first by a nose
Came back and won novice at Newbury as big favorite
Tried group 2 company at Newmarket ran an ok 3rd to Persian Force
Another 3rd at Goodwood in group 2 losing to Marbaan
Shipped to France for group 3 at Deauville, won by 1/2L going 7F as big favorite
1 mile should be no problem but the firm going maybe an issue, both wins are on good to soft
Charlie Appleby/William Buick – Godolphin owned
BC races is next stop for this horse depending on how he does here.
3 – Appraise
Won maiden at SAR by a head going 5 1/2F
Faced stakes horses next out in the Skidmore and encounter some light bumping and issue but finished willing
By the speed number alone, he would be on top of these runners
Chad Brown trained with M Franco
Woodbine Race 8 – $150,00 SEAWAY STAKES
5 – Souper Sensational
Just missed at SAR last out by a head running 2nd in grade 3 race
Just missed at WO in first start of the season running 2nd in grade 2 race
Good works with break coming into this race
Will be on or near the pace and generally finishes strong but needs a little more this time to win
9 – Lady Speightspeare
Won last going 1 1/16 in grade 3 at WO on the AW
Won going 1 mile on turf going wire to wire
Her only try at 7F was a winning effort in group 2 at WO going wire to wire
Certain should flash good speed again but will they sit her off the pace like the last race?
3 – Nazuna
Not much at SAR in a 1 mile turf race but held hard early in the race, why?
Won allowance race at 1 mile on the turf at BEL close to the pace
Last year they shipped her to Royal Ascot to run 2nd in group 3 race
But she’s really not live up to that kind of race since, just winning allowance races
New trainer and good work on the AW for prep to the race
Could surprise
Woodbine Race 9 – $1M WOODBINE MILE STAKES
5 – Modern Games
Ran 2nd in last race a group 1 race at Goodwood, he beat 1 BC winners, group 1 winners but the winner was Baaeed
He won the BC race at DMR in a bizarre starting gate issue and then was a purse money only runner
Start season in France at ParisLongchamp with a win in group 1 1 mile race
Then they may have tried to go a distance he wasn’t suited for of 1 5/16, ran 3rd but was no match for the winner or even the runner up
Dull, awful race at Deauville at 7F as the favorite but the winner ran a great race
Charlie Appleby/William Buick/Godophin
There is no Baaeed here
3 – Wakanaka
Shipped to WO for last race a grade 2 race which she won nicely with a quick move to the front and that was it
First race in US was a grade 1 and well not much ran 5th but still not a great effort
The in the next 3 races, ran in graded stakes race finishing 2nd, 3rd and 2nd
Started her racing career in Italy and was purchase to race here in US
Did very well in Italy
13 starts 7 wins 4 seconds 1 third, not many bad races on her CV
Faces the boys here and has before
2 – Ivar
Started this season at IND with a 1 1/16 race in excellent time and beat a horse that just won at KD – Somelikeithotbrown
12 starts 6 wins 2 thirds and a grade 1 winner to boot
Lightly raced considering he’s 6yo and start his racing career in Argentina
Now can he repeat that last effort against this group?
Woodbine Race 10 – $500,000 NATALMA STAKES GRADE I
3 – G Laurie
Ships in from CNL after winning 1 1/16 race by 6L
Ok prep work for this race
Speed wasn’t great in the race but loads of upside and Graham Motion is shipping in for the “Win you’re in” chance
1 – Cairo Consort
4 starts 2 wins – one in stakes race at WO by 2 1/2L
Adds distance today and has 2 good works coming into this race
Ran 2 different ways to win, wire to wire and sitting off the pace
8 – Star Candy
2nd in first start getting caught late in maiden going 7F
Led and got caught
Good work on 9/10 leading to this race
Learned from that race and will improve here
Rich’s Ranks
Woodbine Race 7 – $500,000 PATTISON SUMMER STAKES GRADE I
6 – PHILIP MY DEAR
1 – MYSTERIOUS NIGHT
7 – STAYHONOR GOODSIDE
4 – CHISELER
Woodbine Race 9 – $1M WOODBINE MILE STAKES
5 – MODERN GAMES
3 – WAKANAKA
2 – IVAR
9 – WAR BOMBER
Woodbine Race 10 – $500,000 NATALMA STAKES GRADE I
1 – CAIRO CONSORT
6 – WICKENHEISER
2 – COLLECTING FLATTER
7 – COURTLY RO
