Horse Racing Picks, Analysis, Handicapping and Tips
Horse Racing Picks
PARX Full Card Picks
Hot Dog and Prime Rib Pick 4s
Picks with the Professor’s Parlay of the Day
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Sample Parx Data Report HRT is working on. I’d appreciate your feedback: GTSRichb at Gmail.com
Parx Race 1 Data Report 10-10-22
Parx Horse Racing Tips and Commentary
Terry “Hollywood” Hays Handicapping
Race 1
6 – Far Heart – She has the highest last race speed rating, should improve while returning to dirt and her best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters.
1 – Cinnamon Dream –She switches to a high % winning jockey, the rail post is winning at a 19% clip and may improve while returning to a route.
7 – Only Girl – She finished 3rd vs similar in her last race and her best dirt speed is close to the Avg Winning Speed.
5 – Government Girl – May improve while returning to a route.
Alternate:
2 – Charlys Wild Angel
4 – Charly’s Choo Choo
Race 2
2 – La Regalada – She likes PARX Racing finishing in the money in six out of seven starts, winning one of the races, her best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters, has high % winning trainer and has a jockey who in the last 7 days has this record (16 5-0-2).
7 – Schnuer Will – She finished 3rd vs similar in her last race and has a high % winning trainer.
4 – Frame This – She ran 2nd vs similar in her last race and switches to a high % winning trainer who wins 33% of the time in the 1st race after claiming a horse.
1 – Abidale – She has a trainer who wins 33% of the time in the 1st race after claiming a horse, the rail post is winning at 21% clip and has a trainer/jockey combo who in the last 14 days has this record (18 7-4-2).
Alternate:
3 – Moving in Stereo
Race 3
3 – Blunt Force – She ran 2nd vs similar in her last race, switches to a high % winning jockey and has the highest last race speed rating.
1 – Field Letters – Throw out the last race as she lounged and lost the rider, the rail post is winning at 21% clip, drops in class today and has a trainer/jockey combo who in the last 14 days has this record (5 2-1-0).
5 – Cartwheel – She likes PARX Racing finishing in the money in three out of three starts, winning two of the races and returning to a sprint should help.
6 – Memphis Mafia – She finished 3rd in her last race, has a high % winning trainer and switches to a high % winning jockey who in the last 7 days has this record (9 4-2-2).
Alternate:
2 – Congrats Answer
7 – Love On Fire
Race 4
1 – Birchmount Rd – He took a 2-month break and, on his return finished a nice 2nd at PARX Racing, drops in class today and has a trainer who wins 22% of the time when bringing back a beaten favorite to race again.
4 – Murricane – He has won two out of four career starts including one of the wins at PARX Racing and has a high % winning trainer.
7 – Shanghai Warrior – He comes in from Monmouth Park to try PARX Racing for first time, has the highest last race speed rating and drops in class.
6 – Go for the Kill – He finished 3rd vs similar in his last race, has a high % winning trainer who in the last 14 days has this record (7 4-0-1).
Alternate:
3 – Lemon Creek Louie
8 – Running Violence
Race 5
6 – Nickys Notion – She ran 2nd vs similar in her last race, has the highest last race speed rating and her best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters (tie).
4 – Snappy Ride – She ran 3rd vs similar in her last race and has a high % winning jockey, should improve at the shorter distance, and has a good 4F workout on Sep-28.
8 – Imagism – She ran 2nd in her last race, switches to a high % winning trainer and high % winning jockey.
7 – The Furmanator – She finished 3rd vs tougher in her last race, her best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters (tie), drops in class today and has a trainer who wins 19% of the time in maiden claiming races.
Alternate:
1 – Lady Ryan
2 – Classy Gizmo
Race 6
1 – B B Bad – He has never finished out of the money at PARX Racing, the rail post is winning at 19% clip, and he has a trainer who wins 21% of the time when going from a sprint-sprint-route.
4 – Shane’s Jewel – He won his last race at Penn National, has the highest last race speed rating, has the highest speed figure at today’s distance, his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters (tie) and has a trainer/jockey combo who in the last 14 days has this record (18 7-4-2).
2 – Distractandattack – He won his last race at PARX Racing, has a high % winning jockey and a trainer whose entries win 38% of the time with horses that won their last claiming race.
6 – Olympic Romp – He won his last race at PARX Racing and his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters (tie).
Alternate:
3 – Southern Bridge
5 – My Friends Beer
Race 7
1 – World Party – She drops in class today, her best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters, has a high % winning trainer and switches to a high % winning jockey and the trainer/jockey combo in the last 14 days has this record (7 3-2-0).
5 – La Viexa – She tries PARX Racing for the first time and comes in with the highest last race speed rating and should improve while returning to dirt.
4 – Brody Slam – She finished 3rd vs similar in her last race, has a high % winning trainer and a jockey who in the last 7 days has this record (16 5-0-2).
3 – Starship Blanca – She finished in the money in her last two races and likes the track.
Alternate:
7 – Irish Jumper
6 – Connoisseur
Race 8
10 – Risque Rebel – He was beaten only 2-lengths vs similar (on Dirt) in last start, has the highest last race speed rating and a trainer who wins 17% of the time when taking a horse from a route to sprint.
11 – Celtic Treasure – He won his last race at Delaware Park, has a high % winning trainer and a trainer/jockey combo in the last 14 days has this record (18 7-4-2).
4 – Deckology – He switches to a high % winning jockey, has a trainer who wins 22% of the time when bringing back a beaten favorite to race again and his jockey who in the last 7 days has this record (9 4-2-2).
6 – Indoctrinate – He drops in class today and the distance will not be a problem.
Race 9
8 – Gushing Oil – He finished 3rd in his last race, has a trainer who wins 19% of the time when taking a horse from a route to a sprint and blinkers are added today.
5 – Silver Fury – He ran 2nd in his last race and has the highest last race speed rating (tie).
9 – The Angry Man – He won his last race at PARX Racing and has a good jockey.
4 – Off the Meds – He has finished in the money in eleven races at PARX Racing, winning three races.
Alternate:
1 – Noon Time Gem
10 – Sophos
Race 10
2 – Mr. Einstein – He won his last race at PARX Racing and has a trainer/jockey combo who in the last 14 days has this record (5 3-0-2).
3 – Expensive Cut – He won his last race at PARX Racing, has a high % winning jockey and a trainer who wins 24% of the time when bringing a horse back from being 46-90 days Away.
6 – Holdtheflight – He finished 3rd vs similar in his last race after winning the previous race at PARX Racing, has the highest last race speed rating and his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters.
5 – Lease – He won his last race at PARX Racing, has a high % winning trainer who in the last 14 days has this record (8 3-1-3).
Alternate:
7 – Abuelo Nuno
4 – Bar Fourteen
Race 11
2 – Another Flirt – She won her last race at Delaware Park, has a high % winning trainer, has the highest speed figure at today’s distance and has a trainer/jockey combo who in the last 14 days has this record (18 7-4-2).
8 – My First Love – She finished 2nd in her last race at PRAX Racing and has a good 4F workout on Sep-28.
4 – One Wild Woman – She has won three out of her last four races at PRAX Racing, has the highest last race speed rating and her best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters.
3 – Ice Love – She finished 3rd in her last race and has done well at PRAX Racing.
Alternate:
1 – Another Saucy Six
6 – Maarty’s Dilemma
Rich’s Ranks
Race 1 – 1 Mile 70 Yards – Bias: Inside Speed
1 – CINNAMON DREAM – left arrow horse, has high win rate rail, better in first half mile last out
6 – FAR HEART – lone P horse, TLRSP#, flipping from Turf to Dirt
2 – CHARLYS WILD ANGEL – a little faster fractions last out at 7f v 6f
7 – ONLY GIRL – other left arrow horse, ITM 11/0-3-4 on a fast track
Race 2 – 6 ½ Furlongs – Bias: Rail edge, all else fair with Speed
2 – LA REGALADA – has a major LP advantage and should not be too far off the pace
7 – SCHNUER WILL – a little better mid move in her last, important in sprints
6 – GOD STILL LOVES ME – Left Arrow Horse, TLRSP# and possibly ups the number in the 2nd off the bench
1 – ABIDALE – rail advantage, Ness/Silvera combo, 1st off the claim for Ness 33% winner
Race 3 – 6 ½ Furlongs – Bias: Rail edge, all else fair with Speed
5 – CARTWHEEL – has some EP, gets a 10 lb weight break, Parx 3/2-1-0
6 – MEMPHIS MAFIA – Third off the break, Paco Lopez rides, much better fractions last out
2 – CONGRATS ANSWER – EP/LP+ edge, 1st off the claim tr Michael Pino 20% winner
3 – BLUNT FORCE – TLRSP#, PARX 16/1-7-6, Tr Marya Montoya and jy Mychel Sanche7 ITM 5/7 +1.66 ROI
Race 4 – 7 Furlongs – Bias: Inside Speed
1 – BIRCHMOUNT RD – rides high win rate rail with EP, fits track bias, BTN FAV with better early fractions in last, maybe shows more in R2 off the sidelines
7 – SHANGHAI WARRIOR – left arrow horse with +EP edge and ++ EP/LP combo, track dropper w/ TLRSP#
4 – MURRICANE – cut back in distance could help, last race better than it looked with faster fractions
6 – GO FOR THE KILL – better ATB in last, 5 lb weight break today could be the difference
Race 5 – 6 Furlongs – Bias: Early Speed, PPs fair
6 – NICKYS NOTION – BB – +EP, LP1 and ++ EP/LP combo, TLRSP#, PARX 11/0-5-2
8 – IMAGISM – 1st of the claim tr Michael Pino – 20% angle, should be involved from go
7 – THE FURMANATOR – only MSW to MCL dropper, lightly raced so room for surprise
4 – SNAPPY RIDE – tough call over the 3, but will go with the better jy/tr combo of Ruben Silvera and Philip Aristone
Race 6 – 1 Mile 70 Yards – Bias: Inside Speed
4 – SHANE’S JEWEL – Silvera/Ness gain, distance 7-4-1-1 with career best effort, good works for 1st since Feb
6 – OLYMPIC ROMP – +LP edge, top EP/LP combo, another that likes the distance 11/2-3-4
1 – B B BAD – track dropper, bout PARX 4/1-2-1, should improved early foot in last
3 – SOUTHERN BRIDGE – class dropper, PARX 6/2-3-0, Ness wins 31% going from a sprint to a route
Race 7 – 1 Mile 70 Yards – Bias: Inside Speed
4 – BRODY SLAM – Left Arrow Horse with much better times and pace#s in first half mile of last race
1 – WORLD PARTY – down in class, rides high win rate rail, PARX 3/2-0-0, but distance 4/0-0-0
3 – STARSHIP BLANCA – Left Arrow Horse with +EP/LP edge, 7 lb weight break today
5 – LA VIEXA – 2nd off the claim for tr Victor Barboza, jr, 24% angle vs 19% overall, Alpha Angle
Race 8 – 7 ½ Furlongs Turf – Bias: Outside and Off the Pace – moved to 1 Mile – Bias: Tactical Speed, 1-7 PP
4 – DECKOLOGY – a pair of seconds with Paco Lopez riding, has plenty of EP
10 – RISQUE REBEL (MTO) – has plenty of EP and can sit off the lead too
11 – CELTIC TREASURE- outside closer with much better fractions last out, Silvera/Ness again
5 – EL HERMANO – Top LP horse, should be better 2nd off the bench, weight break
Race 9 – 7 Furlongs – Bias: Speed with a Slight Inside Edge
11 – HIZAAM – LS- Left Arrow PC Horse – very consistent performer
8 – GUSHING OIL -PARX 4/0-3-1, distance 4/0-3-0 – lone P horse, third after a layoff
7 – ROYAL COUP – tie TLRSP#, a little regression last out but much better late
4 – OFF THE MEDS – Left Arrow Horse, Distance 4/2-1-1, last race was better than it looks, 4 small SP# increases
Race 10 – 1 Mile 70 Yards – Bias: Inside Speed
6 – HOLDTHEFLIGHT – TLRSP#, resume says more in r2 off the break, should be close to the front from go to photo
3 – EXPENSIVE CUT – PARX 4/1-2-1, Distance 3/2-1-0, highly consistent high performer for these
7 – ABUELO NUNO – has the top LP#s but also showed some early quickness in last
1 – SCREEN SAVER
Race 11 – 1 Mile – Bias: Tactical Speed, 1-7 PP
4 – ONE WILD WOMAN – Lone EP horse, TLRSP#< tr Ruperto Perez 38% winner staying in claiming ranks vs 15 overall – super Alpha Angle for him
2 – ANOTHER FLIRT – for the last time Silvera/Ness, when she wins, she wins big, 2 for 2 at 1 mile
3 – ICE LOVE – mini Z pattern in last, weight break today, if he can run two back
5 – DON’T TELL FRANKIE – hard call over the 8, going with Left Arrow and +EP edge if 11 is not in
Parx Way to the Winners’ Circle Worksheet (Races 1-8)
Parx Way to the Winners’ Circle Worksheet (Races 9, 10, 11)
