Horse Racing Picks, Analysis, Handicapping and Tips
Horse Racing Picks
Parx Racing Full Card Picks
Guaranteed Tip Sheet Free Track: Turf Paradise
Picks with the Professor’s Play of the Day
Parx Horse racing Picks and Commentary
Terry “Hollywood” Hay’s Handicapping
Race 1
4 – Nothins Free – She comes in from Monmouth Park to try PARX Racing for the first time, drops in class today and has a good 4F workout on Nov-03.
6 – Anginetti – She likes PARX Racing finishing in the money in 46% of her starts and the distance will not be a problem.
1 – Penance – She won her last race and has won eleven races out of thirty-two starts at PARX Racing.
3 – Stormbeam – She drops in class today, has the highest speed figure at today’s distance and her best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters.
Alternate:
5 – Hit a Homer Honey
2 – Kenai Cool
Race 2
1 – Lil Miss Hotshot – She ran 2nd vs similar in her last race, the rail post is winning at a 20% clip, and she has the highest speed figure at today’s distance.
6 – Speightster’s Gold – She comes back from Penn Nation after winning by 6-lenghts to PARX Racing where she has performed well in the past.
8 – Time to Two Step – She won her last race at PARX Racing and has a high % winning trainer.
5 – Hello Rosie Say – She drops in class today and switches to a high % winning jockey.
Alternate:
4 – Towson
2 – Valerie First
Race 3
4 – Edward Madden– He was well bet and won his debut race at Delaware Park and his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters.
7 – Freddyness – He won his last race at Delaware Park; he is trained by Jamie Ness and ridden by Ruben Silvera.
3 – Don’t Blame Freddy – He won his last race at PARX Racing and has a trainer whose mounts win 23% of their 2YO races.
6 – Southern Lad – He won his last race at Laurel Park and has a decent 5f workout on 07Nov.
Alternate:
1 – Shouldhavebeengone
2 – Lyfe Is Simple
Race 4
8 – Mine Not Mine – He finished in the money in his last three races and is trained by Jamie Ness and ridden by Ruben Silvera.
5- Saltin’ the Rim– He ran 2nd vs similar in his last race and has the highest last race speed rating (tie).
2 – Victory Is Ours – He finished 3rd vs similar in his last race, his early speed running style helps his chances and his jockey in the last 7 days has this record (10 3-1-0).
4 – Jerusalem Gates – He has finished in the money in three out of four races at PARX Racing and has the best dirt speed among today’s starters.
Alternate:
1 – Ludo
7 – Curlin Lane
Race 5–
7 – Scoop Dawg – He finished 3rd vs similar in his last race, and his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters.
2 – Porsupuesto – He finished 3rd vs similar in his last race and he may improve at the shorter distance using his early speed running style.
5 – Clear Cut – He had trouble in his last race so I will ignore that race, comes into this race dropping in class and returning to a route is a plus.
1 – Bob in Our Midst – He finished 2nd in his last race.
Alternate:
4 – Peter G. Fox
Race 6
1 – Vegas Wild Cat – She is a first-time starter who is trained by Jamie Ness and ridden by Ruben Silvera and her breeding suits today’s sprint distance.
7 – Funny Honey– is a first-time starter whose sire wins 18% with 1st time starters, her breeding suits today’s sprint distance and she has a high % winning trainer and Jockey.
4 – Luna T – She finished 3rd (on AW) in last race and has a high % winning trainer.
6 – Passionate Dream – She drops in class today, switches to a high % winning jockey and can improve while returning to dirt.
Race 7
7 – Thrills and Chills – He has won two races in a row and is now going for a hat trick, and his trainer/jockey combo in last 14 days has this record (5 3-1-0).
2 – Good Culture – He finished 3rd vs similar in his last race, he has the highest last race speed rating (tie) and has a trainer who wins 24% of the races when bringing a beaten favorite back to race again.
3 – Margin of Air – He ran 2nd vs similar in his last race, has a high % winning jockey and he has the highest last race speed rating (tie).
5 – Sovereign Change – He ran 2nd vs similar in last race at PARX Racing and the trainer in the last 14 days has this record (10 4-2-1).
Race 8
4 – Pelota – He ran 2nd vs tougher in his last race, drops in class today and has a high % winning trainer.
5 – Smokey White – He has finished in the money in three out of four races at PARX Racing, drops in class today and has a jockey who in the last 7 days has been in the money in four out of eight races, winning two.
6 – Center Mid Maddie – He drops in class today, switches to a high % winning trainer and switches to a high % winning jockey.
3 – B B Bad – He has finished in the money in four out of six races at PARX Racing, winning one of the races and switches to a high % winning trainer.
Alternate:
2 – Singlino
7 – Mr. Doda
Race 9
1 – The Judge and Jury – He has finished in the money in his last six of his starts, winning four of the starts and has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
5 – Float On – He ran 2nd vs similar in his last race, has the highest last race speed rating and his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters.
7 – Pardsy – He has won two out of three races and is one for one at today’s distance.
6 – Jump Shot – He won his last race at PARX Racing and has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Alternate:
4 – Passage of Lines
Race 10
12 – Pederson’s Courage – He drops off claim, can improve at the shorter distance, has the best dirt speed among today’s starters (tie) and trainer/jockey combo who in last 14 days has won two races out of two starts.
6 – Refund Rigler – He has finished in the money in four of the last five of his starts, winning two of the starts and has a high % winning trainer.
7 – Pellegrini – He finished 2nd in his last race, has the highest last race speed rating and should improve at the shorter distance.
5 – Two Color Map – He has won a race at PARX Racing and switches to a high % winning trainer.
Alternate:
11 – West Fork
Rich’s Ranks
Race 1: 6 Furlongs – Bias: Early Speed, small rail penalty all else fair
4 – NOTHINS FREE – track dropper with +/2f edge and +++4f edge, works says he likes Parx w2w candidate
6 – ANGINETTI – lone P horse between speed and closers, tie top EP/LP combo with the 4
1 – PENANCE – won her last with better race internals from start to finish
2 – KENAI COOL – Z pattern in first race off the bench, looking for her to race back to w2w win two back
Race 2: 1 Mile 70 Yards – Bias: Early Speed Inside 3 best and 8+
6 – SPEIGHTSTER’S GOLD – lone EP horse that should run the most complete race
1 – LIL MISS HOTSHOT – has a +EP advantage at the half, gets bold when she has the lead at the half
7 – CANOOCHEE – TLRSP# and drops in class, also gets a weight break
5 – HELLO ROSIE SAY – lone closer versus the rest that want to be on or pressure the lead
Race 3: 6 ½ Furlongs – Bias: Tactical Speed with big rail bonus, 2+ fair
4 – EDWARD MADDEN – ++ LP and EP/LP combo over the rest with TLRSP in debut
7 – FREDDYNESS – should be the pace setter with + advantage at 2/4f
3 – DON’T BLAME FREDDY – scored the maiden win at the highest level, some indication of class compared to the rest
1 – SHOULDHAVEBEENGONE – Monmouth track dropper? Rides that high win rate rail in first off the claim
Race 4: 1 1/16 Miles – Bias: Tactical Speed, PP 1-7 fair 8+ bonus
8 – MINE NOT MINE – Tie TLRSP# with the best combo of EP/LP and ++/LP edge
2 – VICTORY IS OURS – should be close the front all the away round the track with better 2/4pace#s
3 – INSTANT CHAOS – left arrow horse gets a weight break and looks to improve in the 3rd race in a row
5 – SALTIN’ THE RIM – is the other to tie for the TLRSP# was a lot better early in last
Race 5: 1 Mile – Bias: Early Speed small inside out PP bias
7 – SCOOP DAWG – has a +/LP advantage and has three decent works since his last race
5 – CLEAR CUT – probably ran his best ½ mile in his last race and drops here
2 – PORSUPUESTO – should be involved from the jump and was a touch improved early in his last
1 – BOB IN OUR MIDST –flipping from turf to dirt and has some EP
Race 6: 5 ½ Furlongs – Bias: Early Speed and Outside in Bias
7 – FUNNY HONEY – jy Kendrick Carmouche and tr Linda Rice won 5/8 ITM 7/8 +3.15 ROI
1 – VEGAS WILD CAT – Bullet and Go – interesting the Jamie Ness puts Paco Lopez here
6 – PASSIONATE DREAM – NYRA dropper been bad but the drop and decent works suggest she fits here
4 – LUNA T – MSW to MCL dropper also flipping from all weather to dirt – a lot changing here
Race 7: 1 Mile 70 Yards – Bias: Early Inside Speed
2 – GOOD CULTURE – by far the best and most consistent numbers in this field with +LP numbers
7 – THRILLS AND CHILLS – won two in a row, jy Paco Lopez and tr Guadalupe Guerrero w 4/11 for +0.41 ROI
3 – MARGIN OF AIR – very consistent effort, tie TLRSP#, has early speed and improved LP last out
1 – FORMAL ORDER – has some of the best combo of EP/LP
Race 8: 6 Furlongs – Bias: Early Speed, small rail penalty all else fair
4 – PELOTA – TLRSP# and drops in class in third off the bench, won only PARX race by 9 ½ lengths
5 – SMOKEY WHITE – Left Arrow Horse – rough race last out in first following a short break, did the same thing last fresh start and followed it up a big win
6 – CENTER MID MADDIE – should be the pacesetter in the 1st off the claim for tr Jamie Need 33% angle for 30% trainer
3 – B B BAD – tough call over the 8 but more consistently ITM at Parx and the distance
8 – JUST A THOUGHT
Race 9: 6 ½ Furlongs – Bias: Tactical Speed with big rail bonus, 2+ fair
1 – THE JUDGE AND JURY – better fractions by about a second in his last race
7 – PARDSY – winner 2/3 at Parx with 4SP# increases in a row, today carrying 10 less pounds today
5 – FLOAT ON – left arrow horse with the best combo of EP/LP and much better ATB in his last
6 – JUMP SHOT – lone P horse tough call over the 3, but 3 does best on an off track, today is fast
Race 10: 5 ½ Furlongs – Bias: Early Speed and Outside in Bias
6 – REFUND RIGLER – Ness Silva combo climbing up the speed number ladder, maintenance work between races
9 – MIZZEN MAN – lone closer in a field filled with speed and pressure types
12 – PEDERSON’S COURAGE – lone EP horse with a +LP number and best EP/LP combo
7 – PELLEGRINI – TLRSP# and was much better ATB in his last
Parx Way to the Winners’ Circle Pace Worksheet
