Sha Tin Horse Racing Picks and Analysis
Off to Sha Tin in Hong Kong for the Hong Kong Derby and more for Tom and Rich
Sha Tin Racecourse (Free Sha Tin Past Performances)
Race 5: Rapper Dragon Handicap – 3 am EDT
Race 6: Werther Handicap – 3:30 am EDT
Race 7: The Queen’s Silver Jubilee Cup – 4:00 am EDT
Race 8: Hong Kong Derby – 4:40 am EDT
Race 9: Luger Handicap – 5:20 am EDT
Sha Tin Tis and Comments
22 to 1 Tom’s Tips
Race 5
10 – Victor The Winner – Draw 2
Tons of speed in this horse, and he won the last start wire to wire.
An easy lead helped, and he won by four lengths.
Moves up in class and drops 7 lbs from the last start. The top rider gets the ride.
He could go wire to wire with the right pace in a race with little speed, at least on paper.
2 – Trillion Win – Draw 3
He is just missing in his last two races by a head and neck.
With the addition of blinkers, the horse is running better.
Moves up in the distance from 1000m but has a good record at this distance, with 19 starts, three wins, 4 seconds, and three thirds.
Draws alongside my top choice and has shown some speed in the past, but he tends to sit behind the leaders.
All I want him to do is get a place again.
6 – Oriental Smoke – Draw 11
With issues in the last, he ran a good race, sitting behind the leaders, and kept going at the end. This was at 1400m and today drops back to 1200m.
This was the best effort in the last three starts.
Very good record at this distance, seven starts, four wins, and 1 second.
He has the right distance and pace and could move well at the end, but he must overcome the outside post.
Race 6
8 – Copartner Elites – Draw 4
Just missed the last time out with a change of equipment, adding blinkers.
Sat behind the leaders and missed by a neck.
He’s never won at this distance but has run three times and finished second twice. He also has never won in Hong Kong.
Based on the last race, he’s in form and ready to win with a closing kick.
1 – Five G Patch – Draw 3
He won at this level two starts back by ½ length, then moved up in class and ran third with the featherweight of 108. Drops back down and add weight.
He is in form and gets Ryan Moore, which can only help.
13 – Round The Earth – Draw 6
In a race where anything could happen, this horse to be improving in the last two starts.
He ran 4th two starts back, missing by a neck; they take him over to Happy Valley and moved from the back to get 8th only back by three lengths.
With seven starts in Hong Kong, the best he’s done is fourth, but he has won one race. Those last two races are much better; he will run in the money this time.
Race 7
1 – California Spangle – Draw 1
He Ran third last out, running 1600m to Golden Sixty in the group 1 race.
He set the pace and got caught when the other horse picked him up mid-stretch.
I don’t see who else will run with him in this short field, maybe the three horse?
He’s 1 for one at this distance, and with the drop from 1600m, he will win.
4 – Waikuku – Draw 2
Ask to run last out, running wide, and was boxed in. Still was good enough to run fourth.
Drops back in the distance from 1600m and has a terrific record of 6 starts, four wins, and two thirds.
He’s been banging his head with the big boys in the top races and beat Golden Sixty last year.
With the distance change and returning to form, he will run in the money.
3 – Lucky Sweynesse – Draw 4
The last two starts have been winning efforts in a group 3 handicap and then a group 1 race beating Wellington at 1200m.
In both races, he finished strongly.
He could be with the leader here but will hang back and make one move.
If the two of them fight for the lead, the race will be set up for someone else to win.
Race 8
2 – Beauty Eternal – Draw 7
He is undefeated in Hong Kong, coming from off the pace in his three starts.
He’s also done in different ways of being wide or in traffic but isn’t surprised if in the back of the field.
The last race was a restricted 4yo race at 1800m and won by ½ length.
He will be the favorite.
8 – Galaxy Witness – Draw 3
He hasn’t won this season but has run in the money in 4 out of his seven starts.
In his last race, he was poorly bumped but still got 3rd from a bad outside draw.
Medium priced horse who should like the distance but win, not sure.
3 – Super Sunny Sing – Draw 9
Also, he is a hot horse with wins in his last four races coming from the back of the field. He boldly moved and quickened his pace when asked to go.
Faced 4yo last out at 1800m and was as much as 7 lengths behind to close and win by ½ length.
He could win and that would be no surprise to me.
Race 9
12 – Ennea Fortune – Draw 7
This must be one of the unlucky horses in Hong Kong to have drawn post 12 in his last three races.
But in all those races, with problems, he still managed to close from far back. The last race finished 4th.
And in that race, he lost by one ¾ length but flew home in :20.78 at the end. That’s fast in a 1000m race down the stretch.
No wins in Hong Kong but has won.
Now let’s see, with a better starting position, he can get the win.
8 – Brave Dreams – Draw 10
In form, he won last out, good in all five of his races.
Interesting that he has been the favorite in 3 of the five races and misses until the last out.
He is fine running in the money with his form verse this field.
5 – Magniac – Draw 12
Has shown speed in his first two starts in Hong Kong and ran 3rd in first race and then 2nd in the last race.
He has won three times.
He drew the 12-post position last time and ran to the lead, an easy lead, and got caught with less than 50m to go.
He will run out of gas at the end, and my top pick will close fast to catch him.
Rich’s Ranks
Race 5: Rapper Dragon Handicap
5 – PACKING TREADMILL – usually runs well following a workout, distance 6/4-0-1
10 – VICTOR THE WINNER – all or nothing type 5/3-0-0 – Distance/Surface/Track – won and improved in only other 2nd up race
11 – BEAUTY TYCOON – most recent 6f work was faster than most of his recent races
7 – BEAUTY CHARGE – improved in most recent 2nd up and last was good enough to win here
Race 6: Werther Handicap
3 – WOODFIRE BRO – last race was better than in looks with slightly better fractions
8 – COPARTNER ELITES – could be better in 2nd up
1 – FIVE G PATCH – could be the favorite, but concerned about regression in his last
10 – CAN’T GO WONG – fractions at 1M were about 2 seconds faster in last – we’ll bite
Race 7: The Queen’s Silver Jubilee Cup
3 – LUKY SWEYNESSE – likely to improve in round two off the bench, 2/2 at the distance
1 – CALIFORNIA SPANGLE – could be the favorite but usually fades late in 1st up
2 – WELLINGTON – is another that usually doesn’t win in first after a workout
Race 8: Hong Kong Derby
3 – SUPER SUNNY SING – won 4 in a row and the extra distance should help
2 – BEAUTY ETERNAL – 5/4-0-1 lifetime, only question is distance
8 – GALAXY WITNESS – is another that should benefit from going a little longer today
6 – TUCHEL – usually runs his best after a barrier trial like today
Race 9: Luger Handicap
5 – MAGNIAC – top jockey Zac Purton gets off the 8 to stay here
4 – SUPREME LUCKY – all or nothing horse, both wins in 5 races came following a barrier trial – like today
9 – ETERNAL BLOOM – another that tends to run his best 1st up
8 – BRAVE DREAMS – improved 6f time by about a half second in his last
