Finger Lakes Full Card Tips, Analysis and Suggested Wagers
$100 Challenge – Suggested Wagers for Finger Lakes on a $100 Budget
Guaranteed Tip Sheet Free Track: Thistledown
Finger Lakes Picks and Comments
Terry “Hollywood” Hay’s Handicapping
Race 1
5 – Far Away Look – He finished 5th in his first race back from a 10-month break after coming in the stretch 5-wide, he has a high% trainer and jockey, and his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters (tie).
1 – Kodiak Brown – He is eligible to improve in the 3rd start since his layoff and he has a high% trainer and jockey.
3 – Kingfish – He finished 3rd in his last race, he has a high % winning jockey and a trainer who wins 23% of the route races he has an entry in.
Longshot:
4 – Flat Bill – He finished 3rd in his last race, and his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters (tie).
Alternate:
2 – Maseta
6 – Quad Party
Bet: $.50 Pick 4 -1st race #1,3,5 – 2nd race #1,4,6 – 3rd race #1,3,6 – 4th race #5
Race 2
1 – Milagroso – He ran 2nd vs similar in his last race, he has the highest last race speed rating, his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters and has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
4 – Lookin Grand – He has finished in the money in his last three races, finishing 3rd vs similar in last race.
6 – Over the Cap – He drops in class today and he has a high % winning trainer.
Longshot:
5 – Sharpoon – He comes in from Belmont Park to try Finger Lakes and drops in class today.
Alternate:
2 – Dancinwithjake
3 – Tom’s Legacy
Bet: $0.50 Pick 3: 1,4,3,6/1,3,5,6/5
Race 3
6 – Pretty Miss Keens – She ran 2nd vs similar in her last race, winning the race before that and has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
3 – Lady Quinn – She ran 2nd vs similar in her last race and has a high % winning trainer and jockey and this combo in the last has this record 14 days on 5 2-1-0.
1 – Wabaunsee – She won her last race at Finger Lakes; she has the highest speed figure at today’s distance and the rail post is winning at 19% clip.
Longshot:
5 – True Destiny – She has won two races in row and now going for a hat trick and in addition has three bullet workouts in a row.
Alternate:
2 – Sweet Invasion
Bet: $1.00 DD: 1,3,5,6/5
Race 4
5 – Janis Joplin – She won her last race at Finger Lakes; her best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters, and she has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
1 – Flurry of Roses – She has finished in the money in her last ten races, finishing 3rd vs similar in her last race and she has a high % winning trainer.
2 – Ice Love – She finished 3rd vs similar in her last race, has a high % winning trainer who wins 42% of the races when taking blinkers off a horse.
Longshot:
3 – Isabel Luvs Gold – She has finished in the money in four out of seven races at Finger Lakes and has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Alternate:
6 – Star Speaker
4 – Tumbles
Bet: $.50 Pick 5- 4th race #5- 5th race #1,3,4,5- 6th race #5,6 – 7th race #2,6 – 8th race #1-1A,2,4
Bet: $20.00 Win: #5
Race 5
5 – North Coast – He ran 2nd vs similar in his last race, his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters and has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
3 – Sorpreso – He drops in class today and has a high % winning trainer.
1 – Clingman – He finished 3rd vs similar in his last race, the rail post is winning at a 19% clip and he has a trainer who wins 18% of the claiming races he has an entry in.
Longshot:
4 – Matt Doyle – He has won one out of two starts at Finger Lakes, drops in class today and has a high % winning jockey.
Alternate:
6 – N Y Riesling
2 – Fighter Kite
Bet: – $.50 Pick 4 – 5th race #1,3,5- 6th race #5,6 – 7th race #2,6 – 8th race #1A,2,4
Race 6
6 – Waheel – He has won two races in row and now going for a hat trick and has a high % winning trainer.
5 – Devil Or Angel – He has finished in the money in his last eight races, winning three of the starts and he has a high % winning trainer.
3 – Invaluable Will – He ran 2nd vs similar in his last race and earned the highest last race speed rating.
Longshot:
1 – Devious Banker – He finished 3rd in his last race, the rail post is winning at a 19% clip, and he has a high % winning jockey.
Alternate:
4 – Son of Darkness
2 – Blues City
Bet: $1.00 DD: 3,5,6/2
Race 7
2 – Gone and Forgotten – She has finished in the money in fourteen out of fifteen races at Finger Lakes, winning ten races, she has the highest speed figure at today’s distance, her best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters and a bullet 5F workout on Aug-04.
6 – Curly Girl – She has won two races out of the last three starts at Finger Lakes, and she has a high % winning trainer.
7- Queen Arella – She has won six races out of seven starts at Finger Lakes, switches to a high % winning jockey and has a high % winning trainer and a bullet 4F workout on Aug-07.
Longshot:
5 – Daredevil Bull – She has finished in the money in nine out of the last ten races, winning four of the starts and she has a high % winning trainer.
Alternate:
3 – Sniff
Bet: None
Race 8
4 – Beach Boy Al – He has won two races in row and now going for a hat trick, and he has a high % winning trainer and a high % jockey and a bullet 4F workout on Aug-08.
2 – Bingo John – He finished 3rd vs tougher in his last race, drops in class today, and has the highest last race speed rating.
1A – B C Glory Days – He drops in class today, and he has a trainer who wins 27% of the races when taking a horse from a sprint-sprint-route.
Longshot:
3 – Kong Loves a Fight – He finished out of the money as the favorite in his last race but has a trainer who wins 27% of the races when bringing a beaten favorite back to race again.
Bet: None
Rich’s Ranks
Race 1: 1 1/16 Miles – Bias: 4 Races – Early Speed, 1 w2w – PP: Strong Rail, 2/3 Bonus, 4-7 Fair, 8+ No Wins
3 – KINGFISH – resume says he should be better in 3rd up, a little better early last out
5 – FAR AWAY LOOK – tr Michael Ferraro and jy Luis Perez hit at 29% with a 95 cent ROI – probably most upside in the race
6 – QUAD PARTY –top Total Pace horse with EP and TLRSP#
1 – KODIAK BROWN – rides the strong rail in third after a layoff, can’t overlook any Englehart trainer at Flakes
Suggested Wagers: $0.50 Pick 4: 3,5,6/1,4,6/3,5,6/5
Race 2: 1 Mile 70 Yards – Bias: Early Speed – 25% w2w – PP: Rail Discount, 2-7 Fair, 8+ No Wins
1 – MILAGROSO – TLRSP# and increased SP last two, more EP last out
4 – LOOKIN GRAND – Z Pattern last out, considerably better EP and LP
6 – OVER THE CAP – probably biggest class dropper – one of his best published works between races
5 – SHARPOON – small class dropper, track dropper and gets a weight break
Suggested Wagers: $0.50 Trifecta: 1,4,6/1,4/ALL
Race 3: 6 Furlongs – Bias: Early Speed – 40% w2w – PP: Small Rail Bonus, 2-7 Fair, 8+ Small Penalty
6 – PRETTY MISS KEENS – 3sp# increases – tie TLRSP# – a little better fractions last out
3 – LADY QUINN –tie for TLRSP#, resume says 2nd up is likely to be a lot better than 1st off the bench – lone EP
5 – TRUE DESTINY – early speed, first Lasix and three consecutive bullet works between races – just wonder if she is leaving her best on the backside
1 – WABAUNSEE – another to tie TLRSP# – slower fractions last out at 5 1/2f v 6f – maybe didn’t need more win 4 ¼ length win
Suggested Wagers: $0.50 Trifecta: 3,5,6/3,6/1,2,3,5,6
Race 4: 1 Mile 70 Yards – Bias: Early Speed – 25% w2w – PP: Rail Discount, 2-7 Fair, 8+ No Wins
5 – JANIS JOPLIN – you know you got it, if it makes you feel good – makes me feel good off MSW win in first try at Flakes with TLRSP#
2 – ICE LOVE – FLakes 3/0-2-1, distance 10/1-3-4 – the start is key, a quick start makes all the difference
1 – FLURRY OF ROSES – third after a layoff, at times has some high caliber LP
3 – ISABEL LUVS GOLD – has early speed and going to get that Lasix for the first time today, can be a difference maker
Suggested Wagers: $1 Double: 5/ALL
Race 5: 6 Furlongs – Bias: Early Speed – 40% w2w – PP: Small Rail Bonus, 2-7 Fair, 8+ Small Penalty
5 – NORTH COAST – missed by a neck last out w/ TLRPS# – third up – did regress badly in only other 3rd off the break
4 – MATT DOYLE – last race better than it looks – faster fractions at 6f v 5 1/2f – another making 3rd start and CV says look for improvement
6 – N Y RIESLING – highly consistent horse that was a little better ATB in last
1 – CLINGMAN – strong rail, strong LP – 3rd after a layoff, very consistent performer
Suggested Wagers: $0.50 Pick 4: 4,5/1,3,5,6/2,5,6,7/2,4
Race 6: 6 Furlongs – Bias: Early Speed – 40% w2w – PP: Small Rail Bonus, 2-7 Fair, 8+ Small Penalty
5 – DEVIL OR ANGEL – Flakes 8/3-4-1-, Distance 9/2-4-1 – better time by about a second last out
6 – WAHEEL – winner 2 in a row, very consistent output, faster fractions at 6f v 5 ½ – third up
3 – INVALUABLE WILL – SIM Favorite with TLRSP# – much better EP through first ½ mile last out
1 – DEVIOUS BANKER – not all that far from winning 4 in a row, no more than a length behind the winner, strong rail and SP# increase in last two
Suggested Wagers: $0.50 Trifecta: 3,5,6/5,6/1,3,4,5,6
Race 7: 6 Furlongs – Bias: Early Speed – 40% w2w – PP: Small Rail Bonus, 2-7 Fair, 8+ Small Penalty
2 – GONE AND FORGOTTEN – winner 10/15 at Flakes, distance 9/7-1-1 – defending champ,
7 – QUEEN ARELLA – Flakes 7/6-0-0 – 3rd up with a bullet work between races
6 – CURLY GIRL – coming off a big win, looks like she has the most upside in the field, won the last time she cut back to a sprint from a route
5 – DAREDEVIL BULL – consistent performer especially at 6f – 7/4-1-1 – also cuts back
Suggested Wagers: $0.50 Trifecta: 2,6,7/2,7/2,3,5,6,7
Race 8: 1 Mile 70 Yards – Bias: Early Speed – 25% w2w – PP: Rail Discount, 2-7 Fair, 8+ No Wins
4 – BEACH BOY AL – unbeaten in two at Flakes, a couple of excellent works between races
2 – BINGO JOHN – TLRSP# and drops in class – maintenance works between starts
6 – UNCLE VIC – last race better than in looks with a little better times
1A – B C GLORY DAYS – Terry angle, has plenty of EP – maybe drop in class helps keep speed longer
Suggested Wagers: $0.50 Trifecta: 2,4,6/2,4/1A,2,3,4,6
