Saratoga Horse Racing Tips, Commentary, Analysis and Suggested Wagers
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Saratoga Racing Racing Picks
Terry Hollywood Hay’s Picks:
Saratoga – 7-31-2024
Race 2
2 – Certified Loverboy – He won his last race at Aqueduct, he has high % winning trainer Linda Rice and he has high % winning jockey Kendric Carmouche.
6 – Squire Creek – He drops in class today; he has a high % winning trainer and jockey and the combo in the last 14 days has this record (5 2-0-2).
4 – Super Chief – He ran 2nd vs tougher in his last race and drops in class today.
Longshot:
7 – Sin Nombre – He won his last race at Aqueduct.
Alternate:
5- Lucency
3 – Night Effect
Race 3
7 – Egyptian Quest – He finished 3rd in his last race, his best turf speed is fastest among today’s starters and he a has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
6 – Bustino Santino – He ran 2nd vs similar (on Dirt) in his last race and he has high % winning trainer.
8 – Irish Tenor – He drops in class today; she has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Longshot:
1- Spoofy – He finished 3rd vs similar in his last race, and he has high % winning trainer.
Alternate:
3 – Braca
$.50 Pick 4: #1,6,7,8/5/1,2,3,4/1,4,7,8,10,13 – Cost $48.00
Race 4
5 – Toscano – He has finished in the money in both of his career starts, running 2nd in the last start at Saratoga and he has high % winning trainer and jockey.
8 – Bob John Ray – He has finished in the money in all three of his career starts, running 3rdd in the last start and he has high % winning trainer and jockey.
1 – Jaa Mode – He finished in the money in seven of his last ten starts, winning three of the starts and he has high % winning trainer and jockey.
Longshot:
2 – Boys Code – He finished 3rd vs similar in his last race and he has a high % winning trainer.
Alternate:
3 – Hagrid’s Flame
7 – Bad Larry
Bet: $14.00 Win: # 5 – $5.00 Exacta Box 5/8
Race 5 -Female
1 – Slightly Busy – She has a high % winning trainer and she has a high % winning jockey.
3 – Serious Lady – She is a first-time starter and she has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
4 – Jackpot Julie – She is a first-time starter and she has a high % winning jockey.
Longshot:
10 – Playful Lass – She is a first-time starter has a high % winning trainer.
Race 6-Female
7 – Linda’s Jewel – She is a first-time starter whose breeding suits today’s sprint distance and she has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
4 – Episode – She is a first-time starter whose Dam has 6 winners from 7 starters and she has a high % winning trainer.
10 – Mascara – She is a first-time starter and she has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Longshot:
8 – My Vanilla – She had trouble in her debut race being bumped and steadying at the start, her Dam has 5 winners from 7 starters.
Alternate:
13 – Melle Mel
1 – Divorced of Course
$.50 Pick 4: #1,4,7,8,10,13/6,9/3,5/5,6,7,9 – Cost $48.00
Race 7
9 – Hatch – He ran 2nd vs tougher in his last race and he has high % winning trainer who wins 37% of the starts drops a horse off a claim and he has high % winning jockey.
6 – Daddy Knows – He ran 2nd vs tougher in his last race, drops in class today and his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters.
4 – Khozy My Boy – He finished 3rd vs similar in last race and he has high % winning jockey.
Longshot:
1 – Prince James – He drops in class today; he has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Alternate:
2 – American Gentleman
Race 8-Female
3 – Spirit And Glory – She finished 3rd vs tougher in her last race, drops in class today, she has the highest speed figure at today’s distance and she has the best turf speed among today’s starters.
5 – Sister Lou Ann – She won her last race at Churchill Downs and she has high % winning trainer and jockey.
4 – Poca Mucha – She Drops in class today and she has high % winning trainer.
Longshot:
2 – Hot Fudge – She finished 3rd vs tougher (on Dirt) in last race, drops in class today and has the highest last race speed rating.
Alternate:
Race 9
5 – Bold Ambition – He ran 2nd vs tougher in his last race, drops in class today, he has high % winning trainer who wins 31% of the maiden claiming races that he has an entry in, his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters and blinkers added today.
6 – Dark Devil – He ran 2nd in his last race as the favorite but has a high % winning trainer who wins 31% of the races when bringing a beaten favorite back to race again, he has high % winning jockey.
9 – Salacious – He finished 3rd in his last race, can improve at the shorter distance he has high % winning trainer.
Longshot:
7 – Stately Order – He ran 2nd in his last race at Monmouth Park; and he has high % winning trainer and switches to high % winning jockey.
Alternate:
4 – Houlton
8 – Always Be Smart
Best Bet of the Day at PARX Racing – 4th Race
5 – Toscano
Rich’s Picks:
Race 1: 2 3/8 Miles Turf – Cancelled
1 – HIDDEN PATH
3 – ZARAK THE BRAVE
5 – TUDDENHAM GREEN
6 – CLARA BELLE
Race 2: 7 Furlongs – Bias: 12 Races, Early Speed, 25% w2w – PP: Rail Bonus, 2-7 Fair, 8+ Small Penalty
6 – SQUIRE CREEK – headed to the front and not looking back with +6 TOTAL PACE edge
2 – CERTIFIED LOVERBOY – blowout win in his last – resume says a similar race is coming in 2nd up
3 – NIGHT EFFECT – better ATB in last and looking to be better in 2nd off the sidelines
4 – SUPER CHIEF – going to close and has the ability to be close up early with most in here
Race 3: 5 ½ Furlongs Turf – Bias: 18 Races, Tactical Speed, 3 w2w – PP: Big Rail Bonus, 2-7 Under Par, 8+ Best
7 – EGYPTIAN QUEST – MSW dropper – all 4 races competitive for the win vs these – 2nd up will look a lot like the last which was TLRSP#
8 – IRISH TENOR – lone E that should be upfront as one of 2 Pure MSW droppers
6 – BUSTINO SANTINO – a pair of 3rd in two on grass, consistent performer
9 – THE COMMISH – first timer with a back bullet work
$0.50 Pick 4: 6,7,8,9/5,7,8/1,3,7,10/10,13
Race 4: 1 1/8 Miles – Bias: 12 Races. Early Speed, 5 w2w – PP: Rail Fair, 2/3 Bonus, 4-7 Hammered, 8+ Fair
5 – TOSCANO – Irad rides for Rivelli – this horse is fast and his working prepping are outstanding
8 – BOB JOHN RAY – best bred for grass and this Chad Brown horse is getting better race by race
7 – BAD LARRY – Tyler G gets on after the horse was a little better ATB in last
3 – HAGRID’S FLAME – most upside potential of the remaining horses with just 3 races and has shown killer LP
Race 5: 1 1/16 Miles Inner Turf – Bias: 14 Races, Closers. 2 w2w – PP: Rail Bonus, 2/3 Whacked, 4-7 Fair, 8+ Bonus
1 – SLIGHTLY BUSY – was the favorite in her debut, speed and fade, will have more stamina today and typical 2nd race improvement would be enough – rail edge
10 – PLAYFULL LASS
7 – ADA MAY – UPDATED from SHOW to accurately reflect 1st up RANKINGS
3 – SERIOUS LADY
Race 6: 5 ½ Furlongs Turf – Bias: 18 Races, Tactical Speed, 3 w2w – PP: Big Rail Bonus, 2-7 Under Par, 8+ Best
Can’t make a case for any of the experienced horses, take all the first time starters
13 – MELLE MEL (MTO) – probably a single if the race is moved off the grass
10 – MASCARA – Wesley Ward trained – you know she will try to pop the gate and go
1 – DIVORCED OF COURSE – solid works at the end of June and early July hint at some talent
7 – LINDA’S JEWEL – Fernando Abreu is the owner and trainer – puts Irad on
$0.50 Pick 4: 1,10,13/5,6,7,9/2,3/3,5,6,8
Race 7: 7 Furlongs – Bias: 12 Races, Early Speed, 25% w2w – PP: Rail Bonus, 2-7 Fair, 8+ Small Penalty
7 – LORD CAPTAIN – going to take a flyer – lone race at the distance was a Toga – career best effort and a repeat wins easily – lowest level in last 10
6 – DADDY KNOWS – some success at Toga – 5/1-1-1 – works and record suggest Katie Davis will send
9 – HATCH – tr Rob Atras 38% on the claim and drop – doubles money on the win and claim
5 – RAM – been off since May, seen a few CD shippers do well – the works prepping are sharp and lowest level in last 10
Race 8: 1 Mile Inner Turf – Bias: 4 Races, Early Speed. 1 w2w – PP: all from 4+
2 – HOT FUDGE – long shot for sure – off track record says yes, turf says maybe – +12 TOTAL PACE says you have to play
3 – SPIRIT AND GLORY – versatile running styles – can win from anywhere on the track – strong efforts in first up with a bullet and go
5 – SISTER LOU ANN –
8 – BE MY SUNSHINE
Race 9: 1 Mile – Bias: 12 Races, Stalkers, 2 w2w – PP: Rail Bonus. 2/3 Discount, 4-7 Best, 8+ None
3 – CONFABULATION – 3/3 first timer going to try and beat all that have not hit par for this level
5 – BOLD AMBITION – another CD shipper with dual Chris P 2nds in last two and well bet
6 – DARK DEVIL – tr Brad Cox doesn’t claim many – just 32 so far – won with 13
8 – ALWAYS BE SMART – tr Linda Rice is solid off the claim too at 24% v 12% overall
