Saratoga Horse Racing Tips, Commentary, Analysis and Suggested Wagers
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Saratoga Racing Racing Picks
Terry Hollywood Hay’s Picks:
Saratoga – 8-14-2024
Race 1
4 – Zarak the Brave – He comes in from France after finishing in the money in four out of five career races.
6 – Pickanumber – He ran 2nd in his debut start and he has high % winning trainer and jockey.
3 – Abaan – He has won four races out of the last five starts and he has high % winning trainer and jockey.
Longshot:
1 – Too Friendly – He comes in from England after finishing in the money in five out of eleven career races, winning two of the starts.
Alternate:
2- Kiyomori
5 – Jimmy P
Race 2-Female
1 – Cinderella’s Cause – She ran 2nd in her last four starts, she has the highest last race speed rating and the rail post is winning at a 22% clip.
4 – Echo in Eternity – She won her last race at Saratoga and she has high % winning trainer and jockey.
3 – Midtown Lights – She has won two races out of the last three starts, drops in class today, has the highest speed figure at today’s distance and her best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters.
Longshot:
5 – Saratoga Kisses – She finished 3rd in her last race and she has high % winning jockey.
Alternate:
6- Krystalheir
2 – Amity Island
Race 3-Female
4 – Midnight Mile – She ran 2nd vs tougher in her last race, drops in class today, she has high % winning trainer and jockey.
7 – Immensitude – She drops in class today, has a high % winning trainer and jockey and she has a bullet 4F workout on Aug-02.
3 – Blissful – She finished 3rd vs tougher in her last race, drops in class today and she has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Longshot:
6 – Thirty Thou Kelvin – She drops in class today and switches to a high % jockey.
$.50 Pick 4: #3,4,7/1,3,7/2,5,6/1,5,10 – Cost $40.50
Race 4-Female
1 – Lord I Wonder – She ran 2nd vs similar in her only start, the rail post is winning at a 22% clip, she has a high % winning trainer and jockey and a good 4F workout on Aug-08.
3 – Cost Containment – She finished 3rd vs similar in her only start and she has a high % winning trainer who wins 29% of the 1st route race that a horse he trains competes in.
7 – Islander – She finished 3rd vs similar in her only start and she has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Longshot:
6 – Refuse to Lose – She has finished in the money in two out of three career races, her best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters and she has a high % winning trainer.
Alternate:
5 – Helcia
4 – Tipple
$1.00 Pick 6: #1,3,7/2,5/1,5,10/1A-1/3/1,3,9– Cost $54.00
Race 5
2 – Summer Whirl – He won his last race at Saratoga and he has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
5 – Bossy Jeans – He won his last race at Aqueduct and he has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
6 – Awesome Czech – He won his last race at Saratoga and likes the distance.
Longshot:
9 – Red Burgundy – He has won three starts out of four career races and he has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Alternate:
4 – Boxed Wine
Race 6-Female
5 – Annascaul – She is a first-time starter whose breeding suggests she will like the grass and she has a high % winning trainer and jockey and she has a bullet 5F workout on Aug-07.
1 – Cara’s Dreamweaver – She ran 2nd vs similar in her only race, she has a high % winning jockey and a good 4F workout on Aug-08.
10 – Disco Star – She is a first-time starter whose breeding suggests she will like the grass and she has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Longshot:
7 – Young At Heart – She is a first-time starter whose breeding suggests she will like the grass, her breeding suits today’s sprint distance and she has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
$.50 Pick 4: #1,5,7,10/1A,3/2,3/1,3,8,9,10,11 – Cost $48.00
Race 7 -Female
1A – Mon Petit Chou – She finished 2nd in her last race, she has trainer who wins 19% of the races in the 2nd race after claiming a horse and she has a good 4F workout on Aug-07.
3 – Fontanafredda – She has finished in the money in four out of her last six starts, winning one of the starts and she has high % winning jockey.
7 – Willful Desire – She finished 3rd vs tougher in her last race, she has a trainer who wins 33% when dropping a horse off claim and she has high % winning jockey.
Longshot:
10 – Ghostly Girl – She won her last race at Saratoga and can handle the distance.
Alternate:
6 – R Funny Bizness
5 – Perpetual Praise
Race 8-Female
3 – Destiny Star – She finished 3rd vs similar in her last race, she has high % winning trainer and jockey.
2 – Beets – She won her last race at Aqueduct and she has high % winning trainer and jockey and a good 4F workout on Aug-06.
4 – Revalita – She finished 3rd in her last race, her best turf speed is fastest among today’s starters and she has high % winning trainer and jockey.
Longshot:
1 – Miss San Gabriel – She finished 2nd in her last start and she has high % winning trainer and jockey.
Alternate:
11 – Preliminary
Bet: $14.00 Win: # 3 – $5.00 Exacta: 3/2,4
Race 9
3 – Java Buzz – He won his last race at Saratoga and he has a high % winning jockey.
9 – Final Verdict – He has finished in the money in nine out of his last ten starts, winning four of the starts and he has high % winning jockey.
1 – Borletti – He has finished in the money in five out of his last seven starts, winning two of the starts and he has high % winning trainer and jockey.
Longshot:
10 – Feathers Road – He ran 2nd vs similar in his last race and he has high % winning trainer.
Alternate:
11 – Magnificent Mile
Best Bet of the Day at PARX Racing – 8th Race
3 – Destiny Star
Rich’s Picks:
Race 1: 2 3/8 Miles Turf Jumpers
6 – PICKANUMBER
3 – ABAAN
4 – ZARAK THE BRAVE
5 – JIMMY P
Race 2: 1 Mile – Bias: Stalkers, 29% w2w – PP: Rail Bonus, 2/3 Discount, 4-7 Bonus, 8+ None
3 – MIDTOWN LIGHTS – only horse in the race with a recent run to hit par – two back, off the bench like today
1 – CINDERELLA’S CAUSE – ITM 11/13 at the distance, rail bonus and ATB in last
4 – ECHO IN ETERNITY – has one race at Toga – a win with her career best performance – last out and some nice works since – an emerging horse for the course?
5 – SARATOGA KISSES – should improve in the 2nd up, first time in while making consecutive starts – back to healthy?
Race 3: 1 1/16 Miles Turf – Bias: Closers, 1/14 w2w – PP: Outside In Bias, Inside 3 Under Par
7 – IMMENSITUDE – drops from a Grade III – seems to have taken to the Toga turf based on her works – has a Group 3 win in France – which is probably a little higher class than today
4 – MIDNIGHT MILE – all three US races are good enough to win her, but seems close, just not first
8 – NOT SO CLOSE – easy pace? Q30 – lone race on Spa grass, w2w – that’s where you’ll find her today
3 – BLISSFUL – resume says she will be better in the 2nd start after a layoff by 3-6 speed points
Race 4: 1 Mile – Bias: Stalkers, 29% w2w – PP: Rail Bonus, 2/3 Discount, 4-7 Bonus, 8+ None
5 – HELCIA – improving in each race – gets first Lasix today – could be the difference maker today
1 – LORD I WONDER – potential Plus 5, pacesetter with 2nd race improvement and rail bonus
3 – COST CONTAINMENT – another with typical 2nd race improvement putting her close to the winners’ circle
6 – REFUSE TO LOSE – Churchill shipper, almost the same exact story as the 1 & 3 – Some strong 5f works for tr Steve Asmussen – should be fit
Race 5: 1 1/16 Miles Inner Turf – Bias: Closers, 3/19 w2w – PP: Rail Bonus, 2/3 Hammered, 4-7 Fair, 8+ Bonus but not as good as the rail
6 – AWESOME CZECH – should sit 3rd or 4th early, right where she wants to be and tied for most LS
1 – BROCKNARDINI – only made a second start after a layoff once before, huge jump forward – half of what she did then could be a winner here
2 – SUMMER WHIRL – could be unbeaten in three with better racing luck.
7 – MUNNY GRAB – has the potential to explode forward or back in the second up.
Race 6: 5 ½ Furlongs Turf – Bias: Stalkers, 23% w2w – PP: Rail Bonus, 2-7 Below Par, 8+ Best
11 – PRINCESS FIONA – 2.8/3 First timer
10 – DISCO STAR – 2.6 First timer
1 – CARA’S DREAMWEAVER – typical 2nd race improvement is enough
5 – ANNASCAUL – 2.5
8 – MISCHIEF LADY – 2.5
Race 7: 6 Furlongs – Early Speed, 36% w2w – PP: Big Rail Bonus, 2-7 Under Par, 8+ Best
7 – WILLFUL DESIRE – lone EP horse, could be pacesetter too – versatility helps in a big field
3 – FONTANAFREDDA – lowest level in last 10 – cut back in distance might help
10 – GHOSTLY GIRL – maybe a horse for the course? Toga 2/1-0-1
4 – CONDIMENT GIRL – most upside in the race – signs of life in last with more late race enthusiasm and a solid work since
Race 8: 1 Mile Inner Turf – Bias: Stalkers, 1/7 w2w – PP: Small Rail Bonus. 2/3 Smashed, 4+ Best and all Similar
4 – REVALITA – could have the most upside in the race – all but 1 race after coming from France were good enough for the W here
11 – PRELIMINARY – absolutely faces the best competition – tr Chad Brown took her straight from the maiden win to a GII – he’s usually right about these things – only question is been off for a year
2 – BEETS – 2nd race improvement would be enough, 1st Lasix should make sure that happens
9 – ZIAERATI – should be coming at the end and has shown elite LP at times – 1st on turf is the question
Race 9: 5 ½ Furlongs Turf – Bias: Stalkers. 23% w2w – PP: Rail Bonus, 2-7 Below Par, 8+ Best
3 – JAVA BUZZ – Lone E – Q30 at 37 – most likely pacesetter – let it rip
8 – HILARIOUS AFFAIR – top total pace +6 for all the turf entries, +7 LS edge and not far from the pace
9 – FINAL VERDICT – just missed last out after better early fractions and pace
1 – BORLETTI – won the last two times he raced close to this level, not in for a price, but in for a check
