Picks for the Arc based on Odds

Rinaldo Del Gallo, III

It is the 103^rd running of the Arc de Triomphe this Sunday. A number of pundits have opined that this year’s Arc de Triomphe is not one of its strongest runnings. Simply put, there are certain winners from certain big European races that usually enter the Arc, and they are not this year.  For instance, the American born Epsom Derby winner CITY OF TROY   (USA) b. C, 2021 {9-e} (Justify) will take a stab at the Breeders’ Cup Classic (not the Breeders’ Cup Turf) and will skip the Arc. Irish Champion stakes winner ECONOMICS   (GB) ch. C, 2021 {21-a} (Night of Thunder) will not be there.  Nor will KING OF STEEL   (USA) gr. C, 2020 {16-b} who won England’s Champion Stakes at Ascot.

 I thought Auguste Rodin and Luxembourg would be in the race, but that is not to be.  AUGUSTE RODIN   (IRE) dkb/br. C, 2020 {3-d} won last year’s Epsom Derby and last year’s Breeders’ Cup Turf, but apparently (so it claimed) will finish his career in the Japan Cup.  He may have been foaled in Ireland, but his sire is the great Japanese stallion Deep Impact, and it is thought he would be loved there. LUXEMBOURG   (IRE) b. H, 2019 {8-f}, who won the Irish Champions stakes at 3 and won this year’s 12-furlong Coronation Cup at Epsom the same distance as the Arc), also will not be there.

The confirmed runners are:

Zarakem, Cristian Demuro (stall 1)

Fantastic Moon, Rene Piechulek (2)

Bluestocking, Rossa Ryan (3)

Aventure, Stephane Pasquier (4)

Sosie, Maxime Guyon (5)

Survie, Tom Marquand (6)

Delius, Ioritz Mendizabal (7)

Look De Vega, Ronan Thomas (8)

Al Riffa, Yutaka Take (9)

Los Angeles, Ryan Moore (10)

Shin Emperor, Ryusei Sakai (11)

Sevenna’s Knight, Mickael Barzalona (12)

Haya Zark, William Buick (13)

Continuous, Christophe Soumillon (14)

Sunway, Oisin Murphy (15)

Mqse De Sevigne, Alexis Pouchin (16)

If you can get 10-1 or better on him, I like SHIN EMPEROR   (FR) ch. C, 2021.  This horse has an interesting pedigree.  His sire is SIYOUNI   (FR) b. H, 2007 {A15}(Pivotal).  Siyouni is an unlikely great stallion, but he is.  He was the champion 1st year sire in France, 2014, and champion 2nd crop sire in Europe, 2015. According to the Aga Khan’s website where Siyouni stands, “His progeny have won the Arc, 2x Prix du Jockey Clubs, 3x Poules d’Essai, the Prix de Diane, the Irish 2000 Guineas, the Irish 1000 Guineas, the St James’s Palace S., 2x Coronation S., 2x Eclipse S., the Sussex S., the Irish Champion S., the Dewhurst S., the Fillies’ Mile, etc.”  He is obviously a great sire.

That horse that won the Arc was none other than SOTTSASS   (FR) ch. H, 2016 {16-h}, who won the 2020 Arc at age 4.  And here is the funny thing—Sottass that year was 4^th in the Irish Champion Stakes.  He was 3^rd in the Arc as a three year old.  And here is the interesting kicker: Shin Emperor and Sottsass are full siblings.  Ordinarily, if there is too much sentiment on a horse, I stay away from betting on the horse’s sibling since the horse is overly bet because people just love the siblings of great horses.  I have a hunch this won’t happen here.  Who is the dam of Shin Emperor and Sottsass?  Well it is STARLET’S SISTER  (IRE) ch. M, 2009 {16-h}(Galileo), who produced the major runners SISTERCHARLIE   (IRE) b. M, 2014 {16-h}(My Boy Charlie), and MY SISTER NAT   (FR) b. M, 2015 {16-h}(Acclamation).  Sistercharlie won the Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Turf in 2018, and was 3^rd in 2019.  In 2021, My Sister Nat was to come in 2^nd in the Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Turf. So that dam STARLET’S SISTER  (IRE) ch. M, 2009 {16-h} can produce great stakes winners.

So being the full brother of Sottass, I think Shin Emperor certainly has the breeding to win the Arc.  Being a half sibling to Sistercharlie (yes, one word) and My Sister Nate reinforces this belief. I see Siyouni has been the sire of five winners at 2,400, Sottass constituting 2 of the wins, one being the Arc and the other being the Prix Niel.  This year’s winner of the Prix Niel, Fantastic Moon (Sea the Stars), is also in the Arc.

Another interesting thing about SIYOUNI   (FR) b. H, 2007 {A15}.  Notice he is from American Female Family 15, and I thought that female family existing in tail female was extinct.  Perhaps the most famous member of female family A15 was HIMYAR  (USA) b. H, 1875 {A15}, sire of Plaudit, Domino, and Correction.  Domino and Correction were full siblings, as was Mannie Himyar, a horse I see in pedigrees today through Dorothy Gray. And then there was the gelded Kentucky Derby winner and otherwise great runner APOLLO   (USA) ch. G, 1879 {A15}(Lever), source of the “Curse of Apollo,” being the last horse before Justify to win the Kentucky Derby without running at age 2.  He seems to be an obscure horse, but DRAYMONT  (USA) dkb/br. H, 1925 {A15}(Wildaire), a horse that broke his maiden as a two year old but never won again, was the sire of TILLY KATE  (USA) b. M, 1935 {1-r}, a female family that led to GREAT ABOVE   (USA) dkb/br. H, 1972 {1-r}(Holy Bull’s sire) and his dam TA WEE   (USA) dkb/br. M, 1966 {1-r}, DR. FAGER   (USA) b. H, 1964 {1-r}, and UNBRIDLED   (USA) b. H, 1987 {1-r}(Fappiano).

Check out Wikipedia: it’s a short list

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Category:Thoroughbred_family_A15

Even looking at bloodlines.net, one sees a number of stakes winners in the early part of the 20^th Century, there are about 10 stakes winners in the 1920’s, and that’s the latest. BRANDON MINT  (USA) b. H, 1929 {A15}, 4^th in the Kentucky Derby and winner of smaller stakes races descends from SIS HIMYAR  (USA) b. M, 1883 {A15}, who, as the name suggests, is the full sister to Himyar.

https://www.bloodlines.net/TB/Families/AmericanFamilies/FamilyA15.htm

And then you have SIYOUNI   (FR) b. H, 2007 {A15}, in what appeared to be a non existant A15 female family. His dam xxx, had the listed stakes winners SIYENICA   (FR) b. M, 2010 {A15}(Azamour), and SAYANA   (FR) b. M, 2012 {A15}(Galileo). Siyouni’s second dam was American born LIPSTREAM QUEEN  (USA) b. M, 1990 {A15}, a stakes placed horse who produced some stakes winners, including the impressive runner SLICKLY   (FR) gr. H, 1996 {A15}(Linamix), a winner of Group 1’s at 3, 5 and 6 as well as a bunch of other stakes races. Lipstream Queen’s dam COUNTRY QUEEN  (USA) b. M, 1975 {A15} also was a Grade 1 winner in the states and has a bunch of stakes wins to her name. Siyouni’s female line goes back to a KATE MATTINGLY  (USA) b. M, 1867 {A15}, interestingly sired by a JOHN MORGAN  (USA) b. H, 1858 {A15}, sire of Kentucky Oaks and Illinois Oaks winner LIATUNAH  (USA) b. M, 1876 {32}.

Back to the Arc.  Obviously, you have to respect winners of the Prix Niel which is on the same course and at the same distance as the Arc.  Winners of the Prix Niel don’t always win, but they often show in the Arc. NEW BAY   (GB) ch. H, 2012 {19} was third in the Arc the year he won the Prix Niel, as was CAVALRYMAN   (GB) b. H, 2006 {9-f}, as was SOLDIER OF FORTUNE   (IRE) dkb/br. H, 2004.  So you have to respect SOSIE  (IRE) b. C, 2021 {28}(Sea the Stars).

Some pundits are saying this is a good year for longshots, as there are not any standouts. On the downside, Shin Emperor was third in his only race at 2400 meters, the Japanese Derby.

Video below: Japanese Derby, with Shin Emperor #13 (red silks with white hoops on sleeves and yellow hat) and significantly distanced 3^rd, with a very deep close and turn of foot:

There were 18 horses—perhaps too many.

If you look at the 10 furlong (not 12 furlongs like the Arc) Irish Champions stakes, Shin Emperor was caught in late traffic and was coming on strong:

Turning to the Prix Neil, you see SOSIE  (IRE) b. C, 2021 {28} finishing strongly and Look De Vega fading.

The Prix Neil was 9/15/24, not the typical rest before the Arc.  Some say Look De Vega was not trying, but he did fade.  And Sosie also won the Grand Prix de Paris, a race first run in 1863, which is (1) at 2400 meters (the Arc distance) and at Longchamp (the venue of the Arc), but it is limited to intact colts (i.e., not gelded).

Winner Grand Prix de Paris HURRICANE LANE   (IRE) ch. C, 2018 {21-a} was third in the Arc.  Flintshire was twice second in the Arc, but not in his 3 year old year when he won the Grand Prix de Paris.

VIDEO BELOW: 2024 Grand Prix de Paris, Sosie in the White Cap, Sossie winning convincingly:

Who do I think will most likely cross the finish line first?  Sosie: If he goes off at 5-1 or better, he may be a value bet.  If less, maybe not.  Most likely to win does not mean the value bet.  Of course, DELIUS  (GB) b. C, 2021 {7-a}(Frankel), second in the Prix Neil and third in the Grand Prix De Paris might be a good bet if he pays 50-1 or more.

What about Shin Emperor?  The big drawback is he has lost at the distance of the Arc.  In fact, he has not won this year. He was third in the Irish Derby at 10 furlongs and was third in the Japanese Derby at 12 furlongs.

I think Shin Emperor would be a good long shot bet. He has the obvious pedigree to win the Arc, his full brother having done so.  Moreover, when his brother won the Arc, he was fourth in the Irish Champion stakes.  Still, more often than not a horse may be good, but not as good as his sibling. MY PLAY   (USA) b. H, 1919 {4-c} was a good race horse, but he was no Man O’War.  Some say Shin Emperor might go off at 6-1.  To me, that is too light, though I liked his late charge in the Irish Champion stakes and think he might have won that race is if he didn’t have to veer far to the right. The Arc is 2 more furlongs than the Irish Champion Stakes.  I like Shin Emperor at 8-1 or more.

Finally, you can’t sneeze at FANTASTIC MOON   (GER) b. C, 2020 {1-e}(Sea the Moon), a horse that won last year’s Prix Neil. Arc winner TORQUATOR TASSO   (GER) ch. H, 2017 {9-h} won the Großer Preis von Baden in Germany at age 4, and then won the Arc the same year. Perhaps Fantastic Moon can follow suit. DANEDREAM  (GER) b. M, 2008 {14}(Lomitas) also followed this path.

MY PICKS

I never liked “pics” without odds to take the hose.

Assuming you can get 8-1 or better, I like Shin Emperor for a win/place bet. (There is no show betting in Europe). 10-1 would be a real value.

Assuming you can get 6-1 or better, I like Sosie with the win/place bet.

Sure, he might not have been trying.  But I am disinclined to bet Look De Vegas unless he pays 15-1, a highly unlikely scenario.

Finally, if you were to draw a line through the Irish Champion Stakes where he finished fourth, the winner of the Irish Derby and Great Voltigeur Stakes at 2400 meters, LOS ANGELES   (IRE) b. C, 2021 {9-h}(Camelot), might bounce back from his 4^th in the Irish Champion Stakes. After all, Sottsass was 4^th in the Irish Champion Stakes and won the Arc. Given that Los Angeles was also 3^rd in the English Derby, he has consistently shown he can do the distance. I like Los Angeles at 10-1 or better, a win and place bet.