Newmarket Horse Racing Picks and Analysis
If at first you do succeed, why not try it again? The last time Tom and Rich got together; it was a winning Saturday at Newmarket. Here we go again…
Race 1: Space Blues Darley Stakes
Race 2: Palace Pier Zetland Stakes
Race 3: Autumn Stakes
Race 4: Darley Dewhurst Stakes
Race 5: Club Godolphin Cesarewitch Handicap
Guaranteed Tip Sheet Free Track of the Day: https://www.guaranteedtipsheet.com/index.aspx?afid=hrt
22 to 1 Tom’s Newmarket Tips and Analysis
Race 1
Space Blues Darley Stakes (Group 3) Cl1 (3yo+) 1m1f ITV
9 – Skellet
A winner last time in a listed race at Sandown at one mile. This race was after a short break and ran second at Chantilly, going today’s distance in a group 3 race. Up until her last race, she had been running against fillies. She ran well at nine furlongs and add the service of Ryan Moore.
8 – Lead Artist
He’s a 3yo who has never been out of the money in his five races. He ran second to Kinross last time out (Kinross ran second in his previous race on Sunday in Paris). Winner at one mile in a group three the race before, he should be suited for a strong run again. The Gosden’s seem to have a few horses in form now.
1 – Al Mubnir
He ran in the Paris Group three race at the beginning of September, running third. The comment was that he had nothing extra for the final furlong. After three races at ten furlongs, switching distance may be a good choice, even though he won at this distance at Sandown. Tom Marquand returns to the saddle, and I won’t be surprised if this horse wins.
Race 2
Palace Pier Zetland Stakes (Group 3) Cl1 (2yo) 1m2f ITV
7 – Too Soon
He won his last start on the heavy going at Epsom. He’s raced three times and he’s improved in each start. Add more distance today and move up in class, but I like the runs on softer ground.
5 – Starzinheireyes
She won last time as a short-priced favorite of the soft ground at Leicester. This was a race for horses that had yet to run three times. He ran second at Newmarket on the good ground in his first start. Add distance, and let’s see what he can do.
4 – Shackleton
He won his maiden race out at the Curragh last time, running in the lead. His other two starts were both seconds. He didn’t look great in the paddock and went to the starting gate in the race, broken out in sweat. He was a bit green early in his first race and then got going, but he was no match for the winner. Last time, he put it all together, and Ryan Moore will try to make it all the run today.
Race 3
Emirates Autumn Stakes (Group 3) Cl1 (2yo) 1m ITV
4 – Silver Peak
A winner at Haydock last time out as the favorite going one mile. In a field of five, he raced last and moved forward strongly. His first race was an even effort and appeared to need a race. She will win off the last attempt over the good to soft going.
3 – Nightwalker
She made all the running last time out over seven furlongs and also raced a bit green in parts of the race and still won by over two lengths. In her first start, she missed the break but still did enough to third after a messy race; she was all over the track. She will improve again from the last start.
1 – Delacroix
She ran second out in a field of four last time in a group two race. She has been beaten by Green Impact twice. Without that horse, she won her maiden at seven furlongs impressively after issues in the starting gate and went wire to wire. She’s an offspring of Tepin, who was a champion turf horse in her day.
Race 4
Darley Dewhurst Stakes (Group 1) (No Geldings) Cl1 (2yo) 7f ITV
5 – Shadow Of Light
I liked the horse as my top selection last time he ran and won, and adding an extra furlong is to his benefit because he won by four lengths over a good bunch of 2-year-olds. He beat Whistlejacket last time and is headed to the Breeder’s Cup race. He could be, too. He appears to want some juice in the ground.
6 – The Lion In Winter
He has won his first two races with something to spare. Last time, he ran in a group three race at this distance and beat a next-time winner. He improved a great deal off his first race and made the running on the front end for that win. Favorite.
2 – Expanded
He won his first and only start at the Curragh. He had issues at the beginning and then won by a neck. The race has three Aiden O’Brien runners, the favorite, and two big-priced horses. This horse may show more in this start. It’s interesting to use Tom Marquand, who generally doesn’t ride for the trainer.
Race 5
Club Godolphin Cesarewitch Handicap (Heritage Handicap) Cl2 (3yo+) 2m2f
1 – Queenstown
Toss the last race; it was a mess for this horse from start to finish. After winning his maiden, he ran second or third in the three races before the last race. He’s also been against Kyprios, the best stayer in the UK or Ireland right now, and also trained by Aiden O’Brien. This is a better spot for a victory, and the distance is the only question.
2 – Samui
He ran in a listed race at this track last time and ran third in a field of 5. The best you can call that was an even run. He puts up a good effort in most races, whether over the fences or on the flat track. The stat I found very interesting was his record on the flat: six starts, two wins, two seconds, and two thirds.
22 – Jacovec Cavern
After 459 days from the races, he goes off the favorite at Galway on the soft going and runs second of seventeen in a handicap. He tried fences without success in the past, but he was okay on the flat. Off the last effort, I will put him in for the money.
Race 6
Godolphin Flying Start Nursery Handicap Cl3 (2yo 0-90) 7f RTV
4 – Olympus Point
3 – Spell Master
1 – Attack
Race 7
Perfect Power British EBF Boadicea Stakes (Listed Race) (Fillies & Mares) Cl1 (3yo+) 6f
4 – Funny Story
11 – Coppull Hall Lane
1 – Alfa Kellenic
Rich’s Newmarket Ranks and Comments
Race 1: Space Blues Darley Stakes
8 – LEAD ARTIST – it’s going to take a big improvement from the others to beat this one
1 – AL MUBHIR – first up record and good-to-soft records are solid
3 – LIBERTY LANE – runs on good to soft have been the best
6 – SPIRIT DANCER – coming down in class and ran well at the G3 level
Race 2: Palace Pier Zetland Stakes
3 – GREEN STORM – blowout win in his last – big races usually followed by another – alpha angle
7 – TOO SOON – improving in every race so far – another step forward would be tough to top
4 – SHAKLETON – no bad races in three to start career versus big fields
Race 3: Autumn Stakes
5 – STANHOPE GARDENS – not a big fan of maiden winners versus small field like some have done here – he “comfortably” beat a field of 9
2 – GENEALOGY – been consistently good in both races with small improvement
1 – DELACROIX – going to be the big favorite in 2nd place finish in a G2 last out – but just 4 horses
Race 4: Darley Dewhurst Stakes
5 – SHADOW OF LIGHT – ¾ a length from being undefeated in 4 – Buick rides here instead of the 1
6 – THE LION IN WINTER – unbeaten in a pair of easy wins
3 – ROCK OF CASHEL – flyer on jy Lordan – who wins as 20% during the last 2 weeks – actually down – gets off the 2 to ride here? We’ll take the flyer
Race 5: Club Godolphin Cesarewitch Handicap
1 – QUEENSTOWN – Ryan Moore winning at 42% over the past 2 weeks – what’s he doing on this horse anyway? Must be some whispers it is ready to run a big one
10 – NDAAWI – repeat his last turf race – first up like today – and he smokes this field
3 – DAWN RISING – huge improvement in last 2nd up, wash, rinse, repeat and a visit to the winners’ enclosure
16 – ALPHONSE LE GRANDE – wins or nothing – aside from the 12, made the most money in 2024. $1900 less in 5 less races
