Aqueduct Horse Racing Tips, Commentary, Analysis and Suggested Wagers
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Free Aqueduct Racing Picks
Terry Hollywood Hay’s Picks:
Aqueduct – 12-12-2024
Race 1 -Female
3 – Carol Said No – She drops in class today, her best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters, she switches to a high % winning jockey and she has a good 3F workout on Dec-07.
4 – Young At Heart – She has a high % winning jockey, her early speed running style helps her chances and she has a good 3F workout on Dec-06.
2 – Game Like Reyana – She is a first-time starter whose Dam has 3 winners from 4 starters.
Longshot:
5 – I Heard Somethings – She drops in class.
Race 2 -Female
2 – Street Jam – She switches to a high% trainer who wins 23% of the races in the 1st race after claiming a horse, she has the highest speed figure at today’s distance, her best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters and she has a high % winning jockey.
1 – Irish Jackson – She has finished in the money in six races out of his eight career starts, winning two of the races, she drops in class today and he has the highest last race speed rating.
5 – Find Your Joy – She ran 2nd vs similar in her last race, has a high % winning jockey and she has a trainer who wins 19% of the claiming races he has a horse running in.
Longshot:
6 – Jackson Avenue – She finished 3rd in her last race and has a high % winning trainer.
Alternate:
4 – Mysaria
7 – Book of Wisdom
$.50 Pick 4: 1,2,5,6/3,7/4,5,6/2,6,7,8 – Cost $48.00
Race 3 -Female
7 – Spring Magic – She ran 2nd vs tougher in her last race, she has the highest speed figure at today’s distance, she has a high % winning jockey and she has a trainer who wins 19% of the claiming races he has a horse running in.
3 – Lady Jasmine – She came off the turf and won her last race and she has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
2 – Starry Midnight – She finished 2nd in her last race and can handle the distance.
Alternate:
Longshot:
5 – Dolce Sera – She finished 3rd in her last race and her best dirt speed is faster than the Avg Winning Speed.
Alternate:
1 – Karen’s Honor
$.50 Pick 4: 3,7/4,5,6/2,6,7,8/1,2,4,9 – Cost $48.00
Race 4
4 – Whiskey N Soda – He won his last race at Saratoga, he switches to a high % winning trainer who wins 23% of the races in the 1st race after claiming a horse and he has a high % winning trainer jockey.
6 – Chileno – He ran 5th vs similar in his last race as the favorite but has a high % winning trainer who wins 32% of the races when bringing a beaten favorite back to race again, his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters (tie) and he has a high % winning jockey.
5 – Normandy Hero – He has a high % winning trainer who wins 31% of the races in the 2nd race after claiming a horse and he has a high % winning jockey.
Longshot:
7 – Wake Surf – He drops in class today, hie has the highest speed figure at today’s distance and his Best Dirt Speed is fastest among today’s starters (tie).
Alternate:
2 – Portos
Race 5-Female
2 – Everyoneloveslinda – She has finished in the money in eight races out of her ten starts at Aqueduct, winning three of the races, and she has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
8 – Tricky Temper – She ran 7th vs similar in his last race as the favorite but has a high % winning trainer who wins 25% of the races when bringing a beaten favorite back to race again and she has a high % winning jockey.
6 – Willow Bend – She has finished in the money in two races out of his last three starts, winning one of the races, she has a high % winning trainer who wins 26% of the races when taking a horse from a sprint-route-sprint and can improve while returning to a sprint.
Longshot:
7 – Shesalittle Edgy – She has finished in the money in five races out of last six starts, winning two of the races and her best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters.
Alternate:
3 – Fancy Azteca
5 – I’m Buzzy
Race 6
1 – Melt With You – He ran 2nd vs similar in his last race as the favorite but has a high % winning trainer who wins 31% of the races when bringing a beaten favorite back to race again and he has a high % winning jockey.
2 – Prove Worthy – He has a high % winning trainer and jockey, the rail post is winning at a 20% clip and his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters.
4 – Ice Road – He won his last race at Aqueduct.
Longshot:
9 – Indianquest – He drops in class today and can improve in 3rd start since layoff.
Alternate:
8 – Arrebato
$.50 Pick 4: #1,2,4,9 /2,3,8/1,6 /1,2,4,11 – Cost $48.00
Race 7-Female
8 – Speightful Lily – She had trouble in her last race running 6th as the favorite but has a high % winning trainer who wins 25% of the races when bringing a beaten favorite back to race again and she is one for one at today’s distance.
2 – Maggy’s Palace – She finished 3rd in her last race and she has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
3 – Kara Para – She has finished in the money in her last six starts, winning three races and she has a high % winning trainer.
Longshot:
4 – The Shoe Lady – She finished 3rd in her last race and she has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Race 8
1 – Donegal Surges – He finished 3rd in his last race, the rail post is winning at a 20% clip and he has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
6 – Margin of Air – He has finished in the money in ten races out of his last ten starts, winning five of the races and he has a high % winning trainer.
7 – Mama’s Gold – He likes PARX Racing finishing in the money in 47% of the races, winning 33% of the starts, and distance will not be a problem as he has finished in the money in 80% of the races, winning 60% of the starts and he has a high % winning jockey.
Longshot:
3 – Yo Daddy – He won his last race at Aqueduct and he has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Alternate:
2 – Summer Cause
Bet: $26.00 Win & $32.00 Place: #1 – $2.00 Exacta Box: #1,3,6,7 – $6.00 Exacta: 1/3,6,7
Race 9
4 – Allofasuddenlee – He ran 2nd vs similar in his last race and he has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
2 – Magic Beach – He finished 3rd vs similar in his last race and he has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
1 – Drive Thru – He may improve while trying dirt and drops in class today and he has a high % winning trainer.
Longshot:
11 – Scherzando – He ran 2nd in vs tougher his last race, drops in class today, has a high % winning trainer who wins 22% of the races when dropping a horse down 2+ classes, and his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters.
Alternate:
6 – Isomarshall
7 – Tomschickenfingers
Best Bet of the Day at PARX Racing – 8th Race – #1 – Donegal Surges
Rich’s Picks:
Race 1: 6 Furlongs – Bias: Early Speed, 46% w2w – PP: Mostly Fair 1-7, Small Bump 8+
2 – GAME LIKE REYANA – none have hit par – so got to take the 1st timer with a back bullet
3 – CAROL SAID NO – if she can rerun her Monmouth race – easy win
4 – YOUNG AT HEART – TLRSP# +3 – should be out front
7 – MY DAUGHTERS’ GIFT – the other first timer and there isn’t much to beat here
Race 2: 6 Furlongs – Bias: Early Speed, 46% w2w – PP: Mostly Fair 1-7, Small Bump 8+
2 – STREET JAM– only horse with a Par race with Top TOTAL PACE +6
1 – IRISH JACKSON – ITM 8/2-2-2 at AQ – consistent performer – but tends to take off a few SP# points in 2nd ups
5 – FIND YOUR JOY – better ATB in last and making 3rd up for the first time – finally healthy
3 – KAYMUS – will be forward and could go w2w – tough call over the 7
Race 3: 1 Mile – Bias: Stalkers, 25% w2w – PP: Rail Fair, 2/3 Bonus, 4+ Under Par, Better Inside
7 – SPRING MAGIC – TLRSP# +6 – Better ATB in last – most upside
3 – LADY JASMINE – the only other horse with a PAR race – top CZone and Jy/Tr combo
2 – STARRY MIDNIGHT – SIM FAV better EP and faster fractions
1 – KAREN’S HONOR – Lone P horse, chance to be better in 2nd up
Race 4: 1 Mile – Bias: Stalkers, 25% w2w – PP: Rail Fair, 2/3 Bonus, 4+ Under Par, Better Inside
6 – CHILENO – Brad Cox doesn’t claim many – wins at 37% when he does
4 – WHISKEY N SODA – TLRSP#+4 – unbeaten in 2 at the distance and everybody knows to bet Linda Rice off the claim
5 – NORMANDY HERO – maybe too much early speed for the rest
2 – PORTOS – big overlay and top PAR PLUS – why not
Race 5: 6 ½ Furlongs – Bias: Stalkers, 21% w2w – PP: Rail Bad, 2/3 Fair, 4-7 Best, 8+ Discount
2- EVERYONELOVESLINDA – hit the board in 8/10 at AQ and 4/5 at the distance – good works
7 – SHESALITTLE EDGY – Comes off the bench hot and had TLRSP#+ 8 – better ATB and fractions
8 – TRICKY TEMPER – been facing much better in stakes races – by far lowest level in last 10
3 – FANCY AZTECA – tr Richard Dutrow is in fire – winning at 46% – can’t bet against that
Race 6: 1 1/8 Miles – Bias: Closers, 20% w2w 2/10 – PP: Rail Bonus, 2/3 Fair, 4-7 Discount, 8+ Best
2 – PROVE WORTHY – will be rolling hard at the end – one of two horses with a PAR run and most upside
1 – MELT WITH YOU – TLRSP#+4 – faster fractions last out – not the biggest fan of Parx risers
7 – MIDNIGHT WORKER – Lone E and should be out front – big Overlay in 3rd up
4 – ICE ROAD – steady performer that should be coming at the end
Race 7: 7 Furlongs – Bias: Closers, 18% w2w – PP: Rail Small Discount, 2/3 Bonus, 4-7 Discount, 8+ Best
8 – SPEIGHTFUL LILY – looks like the horse loves to perform after some rest – like today
11 – MOSIENKO – along with the 8 – the only other with a PAR race on the recent resume
2 – MAGGY’S PALACE – resume says expect a big bounce in 3rd up
4 – THE SHOE LADY – going to be forward and like Manny Franco on frontrunner types
Race 8: 1 1/8 Miles – Bias: Closers, 20% w2w 2/10 – PP: Rail Bonus, 2/3 Fair, 4-7 Discount, 8+ Best
6 – MARGIN OF AIR – Top TOTAL PACE +6 – career best performance was lone trip at AQ
3 – YO DADDY – been facing off versus better
7 – MAMA’S GOLD – TLRSP#+ 6 and has the most upside – should be forward
1 – DONEGAL SURGES – primarily runs in low level stakes – but struggles first up
Race 9: 6 Furlongs – Bias: Early Speed, 46% w2w – PP: Mostly Fair 1-7, Small Bump 8+
1 – DRIVE THRU – 2nd race improvement is all that’s needed
4 – ALLOFASUDDENLEE – responded well in his first dirt run – 3rd up here after better EP
2 – MAGIC BEACH – maybe most untapped potential in just 3rd start
11 – SCHERZANDO – maybe a class dropper with plenty of upside and par races on the resume
