Tampa Bay Horse Racing Tips, Commentary, Analysis and Suggested Wagers
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Free Tampa Bay Racing Picks
Terry Hollywood Hay’s Picks:
Tampa Bay – 12-18-2024
Race 1 -Female
1 – Oops Haha – She has finished in the money in three out of her four career races, the rail post is winning at a 24% clip, her best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters she has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
6 – Country Economics – She ran 2nd in her last race at Colonial Downs and she has a high % winning jockey.
7 – Universal Joy – She is a first-time starter whose Sire wins 16% of the races with 1st time Starters, her Dam has 2 winners from 5 starters, her breeding suits today’s sprint distance and she has a high % winning trainer who wins 20% of the starts in debut maiden claiming races.
Longshot:
3 – Dreamwifedreamlife – She finished 3rd in her only start and she has a high % winning trainer.
Alternate:
4 – Cawama
5 – Lady Lyla
Race 2
4 – Its Pizza Time – He ran 2nd in his last race, he has a high % winning trainer who wins 26% of the starts when taking a horse up one class, he has a high % winning jockey and a bullet 4F workout on Dec-07.
7 – Emirates Honor – He finished 3rd vs similar in his only start, he has a high % winning jockey and a good 4F workout on Dec-11.
2 – Fit to Fire – He drops in class today and he has a high % winning trainer who wins 17% of the starts when taking a horse down 2+ classes.
Longshot:
6 – El Galan – He finished 3rd vs similar in his last race and his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters.
Alternate:
8 – High Water Mark
3 – Golden Cash
$.50 Pick 4: 2,4,6,7/1,2,6,8/2,3,6/2,7 – Cost $48.00
Race 3 -Female
2 – Era – She won her last race at Tampa Bay and she has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
1 – Dame Catherine – She finished 3rd vs similar (on Dirt) in her last race and can improve at the shorter distance.
8 – Bolt of Paradise – She finished 3rd in her last race, her best turf speed is fastest among today’s starters, she switches to a high % jockey and she has a high % winning trainer who wins 33% of the starts when taking a horse up 2+ classes.
Longshot:
6 – Jassai – She ran 2nd vs similar in her last race and she has the highest speed figure at today’s distance.
Alternate:
7 – Compass Rises
5 – Permed
Race 4 -Female
6 – Afilada – She has won two races in a row and now goes for a hat trick and she has a high % winning trainer.
3 – Salagadoola – She has won four races out of the last six starts and she has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
2 – Chem Major – She has finished in the money in nine out of his last ten career, winning three of the races and returning to a route will be a plus.
Longshot:
4 – Sing Scat – She finished 3rd vs similar in her last race and her best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters.
Alternate:
1 – Murumbi
7 – Simmering
Race 5-Female
7 – Damaso – She finished 3rd vs tougher in her last race, drops in class today, has the highest speed figure at today’s distance and she has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
2 – Goodbetterbest – She has won five races out of the last eight starts and she has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
3 – Katies a Lady – She finished 3rd vs tougher in her last race and drops in class today.
Longshot:
8 – Maria’s Honor – She finished 3rd in her last race, winning the two previous races and she has a high % winning jockey.
Alternate:
6 – Perhaps Tonight
Race 6-Female
6 – Rowdy Daisy – She drops in class today and she has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
5 – Top Look – She finished 4th in her last race as the favorite but has a high % winning trainer who wins 27% of the races when bringing a beaten favorite back to race again and she has a high % winning jockey.
8 – Lovely Liza – She ran 2nd vs tougher in her last race she has the highest speed figure at today’s distance, her best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters and she has a high % winning jockey.
Longshot:
3 – Moretastic – She has won two races out of his last three starts, drops in class today and he has a high % winning jockey.
Alternate:
7 – Devra Warrior
$.50 Pick 4: #3,5,6,8/2,5,8,10/2,5/1,3,9 – Cost $48.00
Race 7
8 – Adios Buccaneer – He finished 3rd vs tougher in his only start, best turf speed is fastest among today’s starters (tie) and she has a high % winning jockey.
5 – Dontbesoogrouchy – He ran 2nd vs similar (on Dirt) in his last race and he has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
2 – Toro Forward – He finished 3rd vs similar in last race in his last race as the favorite but has a high % winning trainer who wins 31% of the races when bringing a beaten favorite back to race again and his best turf speed is fastest among today’s starters (tie).
Longshot:
10 – Dither – He trainer who wins 20% of the races when bringing a horse back after 90+ days away and can improve while returning to a route.
Race 8
5 – Sir Robert Hall – He won his last race and he has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
2 – Granted Success – He has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
7 – Ambulante – He finished in the money in four out of his last five races, winning two of the starts.
Longshot:
3 – Maptitude – He drops in class today, he has a high % winning trainer who wins 25% of the races in the 2nd start with this trainer, and he has a high % winning jockey.
Alternate:
1 – Song Runner
8 – Bati King
Bet: $10.00 Win & $16.00 place: #5 – $5.00 Exacta Box: #2,5,7 – $4.00 Exacta: 5/2,3,7 – $4.00 DD: 2,5/1,5,8,9
Race 9
5 – Colonel Klink – He has won two races out of his last three races, drops in class today and he has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
1 – No Angel – He ran 2nd vs similar in his last race, the rail post is winning at a 24% clip and he can improve at the shorter distance.
9 – Volkert – He drops in class today, he has the highest last race speed rating and he has a high % winning trainer.
Longshot:
8 – Feast – He won his last race, has the highest speed figure at today’s distance and his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters.
Alternate:
7 – Old Town Road
4 – Raka Raka Cruz
Best Bet of the Day at PARX Racing – 8th Race – #5 – Sir Robert Hall
Rich’s Picks:
Race 1: 6 Furlongs – Bias: Early Speed, 56% w2w – PP: Inside Out – Strong Rail
Can’t stomach an even money favorite at this level – let’s try to beat it
6 – COUNTRY ECONOMICS – has an aggressive ES edge – better ATB and Fractions
7 – UNIVERSAL JOY – highest rated first timer
1 – OOPS HAHA – OK – we can’t leave her out of our picks – TLRSP# +4
3 – DREAMWIFEDREAMLIFE – maybe most upside in the 2nd career race
Race 2: 7 Furlongs – Bias: Tactical Speed, 26% w2w – PP: Rail Bonus, 2/3 Fair, 4-7 Discount, 8+ Best
4 – ITS PIZZA TIME – Top TOTAL PACE +8 – TLRSP# +3 – only PAR+ and SIM FAV – bullet since last
2 – FIT TO FIRE – 1 Length class dropper, better Early and Late Pace – 2nd UP – GP Dropper
8 – HIGH WATER MARK – Saratoga track dropper – steady set of works
6 – EL GALAN – should be forward with a 10 pound weight break
Race 3: 1 Mile Turf – Bias: Closers, 11% w2w – PP: Mostly Fair, 2/3 Discount, 8+ Small Bonus
6 – JASSAI – just missed at this level last out – much better EP – looks much better suited for turf
1 – DAME CATHERINE – Top TOTAL PACE+7 – better EP in last – biggest class dropper
8 – BOLT OF PARADISE – if you know Tampa – you know you have to include jy Pablo Morales
5 – PERMED- SIM FAVE at 15-1 ML – we’ll take her and hope for an ITM finish
Race 4: 1 Mile 40 Yards – Bias: Tactical Speed, 25% w2w – PP: Rail Penalty, 2/3 Bonus, 4-7 Discount, 8+ Bonus
3 – SALAGADOOLA – TLRSP# +6 – SIM FAV with better fractions I last
2 – CHEM MAJOR – Top TOTAL PACE +5 – maintenance work between races
6 – AFILADA – won first race at TB with ease after coming from NYRA
4 – SING SCAT – held speed longer in last and never off the board in 5 on TB dirt
Race 5: 1 1/16 Miles Turf – Bias: Closers, 1/12 w2w – PP: None from Rail, 2/3 Discount, 4-7 Fair, 8+ Best
7 – DAMASO – drops from a NGSTK – 2 lengths easier – should be forward and runs well first up
2 – GOODBETTERBEST – comes in from GP – lone TB turf run didn’t go well though
3 – KATIES A LADY – right distance – winner 5/9 and just 3 in 21 at any other
1 – SIMPLY STRIKING – longshot with a chance – SIM FAV status – only horse that checks all the boxes
Race 6: 6 Furlongs – Bias: Early Speed, 56% w2w – PP: Inside Out – Strong Rail
3 – MORETASTIC – Tampa Debut after TLRSP# + 4 at Flakes – 4 works since
5 – TOP LOOK – most EP by more than a length – better EP and Fractions in last
8 – LOVELY LIZA – ITM 7/9 at the distance – better EP and Fractions too
1 – QUEEN OF CHILL – tough call over the 6 – but 6 at TB 6/0-0-1 – strong rail and biggest class dropper
Race 7: 1 Mile Turf – Bias: Closers, 11% w2w – PP: Mostly Fair, 2/3 Discount, 8+ Small Bonus
8 – ADIOS BUCCANEER – limited Resume says a big bump in 2nd up is possible
5 – DONTBESOOGROUCHY – Pablo on a horse that just missed in his last at this level – only 2nd try on turf – class drop
2 – TORO FORWARD – has run hot with some time off – plenty of work prepping for first since mid April
7 – PEACE NOT WAR – 3rd up and first on turf – two best races – 1 on AW the other on an off dirt track – says grass should be good to go
Race 8: 6 ½ Furlongs – Bias: 4 Races, Early Speed, 2/4 w2w – PP: All from 2-7
5 – SIR ROBERT HALL – TLRSP# +5 – CV says and aggressive uptick is likely in 2nd up – better ATB and Fractions
6 – MR JACK – probably the most consistent performer – runs well fresh
2 – GRANTED SUCCESS – – just need to rerun his first try at TB two back to catch the W here – 1 of 2 with a PAR run
3 – MAPTITUDE – aside from the 2 – the only other with a par race on the resume – got to take the shot
Race 9: 6 Furlongs – Bias: Early Speed, 56% w2w – PP: Inside Out – Strong Rail
1 – NO ANGEL – strong rail – probably better in 2nd up – 4 seconds in a row – distance 6/2-3-0
8 – FEAST – better fractions last out
9 – VOLKERT – track dropper from GP and NYRA with plenty of upside
2 – JAMES GANG – really hard call over the 5 – but inside is better – track and class dropper
