🏇 22 to 1 Tom’s Tips & Rich’s Ranks – Goodwood Saturday Analysis
RACE 1 – Coral Glorious Stakes (Group 3) Cl1 (4yo+) – 1m4f – 8:20 am ET
Tom’s Tips
1 – Al Aasy
He should be the favorite in this race and has been racing in group company with a win in his first start of the season at Sandown. A middle-pack finish last time at Royal Ascot with a slow start and issues during the running of the race. Clear run, better results.
3 – Arabian Crown
Ran third at Newmarket in a Group Two last time in a small field of four horses. He was forwardly placed, took the lead, but showed no finishing effort at the end. He’s a Group Three winner, but is this his correct distance?
4 – Candleford
A very nice winning run at Beverley in a listed race after an awful first start of the season at Royal Ascot in a Group Two. If he is progressive off the last start, he will have a good run here. Good at running third on good to soft going.
Rich’s Ranks
-
3 – Arabian Crown – Finally healthy – 2 starts in a row for the first time since last August
-
1 – Al Aasy – Faster 1½ mile run last out by about 3 seconds
-
4 – Candleford – Tom horse, win – probably not, ITM – most likely
RACE 2 – Coral Summer Handicap (GBBPlus) Cl2 (3yo+) – 1m6f – 8:55 am ET
Tom’s Tips
4 – Stressfree
He adds more distance today after a fifth-place run at Haydock. Toss the effort at Royal Ascot; he appears to want some “juice” in the going. Well, he gets that today and has won on the soft going. Distance isn’t an issue since he’s already run over hurdles at longer distances.
9 – Feigning Madness
His last effort was at Royal Ascot, going 20 furlongs, and he ran eleventh at 50-1. He races in the rear, so some racing luck is needed. He has won on the soft going in a novice race but that was in 2023. First try at this distance and draws inside, so I am looking for a ground-saving trip.
12 – Dancing in Paris
He’s an honest running horse who didn’t have the best of it in his last race at Newmarket, running eighth. They put up with the leaders early, which isn’t his usual approach. I think the trainer will go back to what he does best and close at the end. He’s placed twice this season from four runs on both turf and all-weather.
Rich’s Ranks
-
3 – Subsequent – Drops – popped in only other 2nd up – won lone race at the distance
-
12 – Dancing in Paris – Last race not as bad as it looks – ran 1¾ miles a lot faster
-
8 – French Duke – Chance to be better in 2nd up and won lone Goodwood race
-
7 – Duraji – Expensive horse – Ryan Moore getting on for the first time – tells me something good is coming?
RACE 3 – Qatar Lillie Langtry Stakes (Group 2) (F&M) Cl1 (3yo+) – 1m6f – 9:30 am ET
Tom’s Tips
2 – Danielle
She’s run second in her last two starts from last season, and both were on soft to heavy going. First up, she runs well, but the question is always—is she ready, or does she need a start? The Gosdens know what they are doing.
6 – Sueno
She ran a reasonable effort last time out at Newmarket, running second going 12 furlongs. She hasn’t won this season but has been improving with each start. She is good on soft going.
8 – Serenity Prayer
She only has three starts and a maiden win. A reasonable effort at York in a Group Three behind Whirl. Her last run was at Royal Ascot, where she had a wide trip and trouble towards the end of the race. Jockey switch to Ryan Moore is an interesting move.
Rich’s Ranks
-
7 – Term of Endearment – $1.7 million horse – finally healthy – makes 3rd start in a row for the first time in years
-
9 – Waardah – Crushed last out in first at Goodwood – won 2/3 on turf – only ? is footing
-
3 – Goodie Two Shoes – Two for two at the distance – basically AoN on grass (10:6-0-1)
-
6 – Sueno – Did improve in her previous pair of 2nd starts
RACE 4 – Coral Stewards’ Cup (Heritage Handicap) Cl2 (3yo+) – 6f – 10:05 am ET
Tom’s Tips
26 – Jungle Drums
He needed his last race at Southwell over the all-weather. He showed little in his first start after two races in Dubai over the winter. He won on the soft going at this distance last year in a listed race at York. Second up, and it’s his time to get going again.
16 – Circe
She won her last start at Newmarket as the favorite in a class three handicap. She has other wins at the same level, going six furlongs. Her Epsom race on the soft going was a bit of a messy run. The switch to Ryan Moore is exciting.
7 – Purosangue
He ran in the same type of race last time with some of the same runners as today and ran ninth of twenty-eight. He ran an even race down the center of the course. He gets a better draw today and William Buick.
10 – Seven Questions
He’s run a bunch of races with average results this season at five furlongs for his new connections. He’s also been mainly running in listed or group races. Add distance, and he likes the soft going. At 100-1, why not add him to place in the race? Win, nope.
Rich’s Ranks
-
24 – Two Tribes – Is the winner if he can run his best race – can run 6f under 1:10 – tough task for all the rest
-
5 – Elmonjed – Most consistent with some of the best 6f times
-
9 – Commanche Falls – A bomb at ML 50-1 – 2/2 at Goodwood – last 2 races fast enough to beat most of these
-
22 – Run Boy Run – Cutting back in distance helps – 6f times rate him near the top
RACE 5 – Whispering Angel Handicap Cl2 (3yo 0-105) – 7f – 10:45 am ET
Tom’s Tips
19 – Miami Matrix
He’s run three times at Chester and two winning efforts on soft and good going. Both wins came after being gelded. Is that the difference in turning him into a good horse? Maybe.
16 – Aurora Majesty
He returned to form with a win at Epsom last time out. He steps up a bit after beating older horses. This was his first win on turf after two wins on the all-weather earlier in his career. Coming to form at the right time.
14 – The Fingal Raven
If you toss his awful effort at Royal Ascot, he ran well in all his races, including a third last time out at Sandown. He’s run third or second in five races, including to Guineas winner Ruling Court. A useful handicap horse.
11 – Spirit Of Farhn
This horse has run well on soft to heavy going and won on good to soft last time out in a class four handicap against older horses. In form, over ground he likes—expect a good result.
Rich’s Ranks
-
18 – Dance in the Storm – Won first trip on turf with ease – tried again last out and had problems – no problems here? Maybe a turf horse
-
9 – El Matador – A half-length from being undefeated – always a heavy favorite in 3 starts
-
12 – Mudbir – One of my favorite angles – ran faster last out – getting sharper
-
4 – Montpellier – Trouble at the start of his last – still rallied at 6f – won prior pair at 7f – if last was 7f (like today), might be unbeaten in 3 and be the favorite
