We’re locked in at Tampa Bay Downs with an 8-race card featuring Rich Bieglmeier and Terry Hays analysis and commentary, On today’s show, Rich and Terry break down: Terry’s Best Bet $100 in suggested Bennie and the Bets Pick 4 sequences with structure and coverage Key angles for dirt vs turf form Trainers and riders who consistently deliver at Tampa This is the kind of Tampa card where discipline and surface awareness matter. Dirt races reward tactical speed, while the turf events open the door for trips, class, and timing to make the difference. If you’re looking for structure, experience, and a clear plan, this is the show to watch. 👍 Like the video if it helps 🔔 Subscribe for daily race analysis and track-specific insights
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Terry’s Picks
Tampa Bay Downs – 2-04-26
Race 1-Female
7 – Princess Honor – Ran 2nd vs similar in last race, Highest last race speed rating.
5 – Sexpectations – Drops in class today; Can improve while returning to dirt; Has a high % winning trainer.
8 – That Thing You Do – Has a high % winning jockey.
Longshot:
4 – Dark Wind – Ran 3rd at today’s distance.
Alternate:
2 – E Complicato
Race 2
7 – El Orejon – Won last race at Tampa Bay Downs; Highest last race speed rating; Trainer and jockey has a high win percentage; Good 4F workout (Jan-25).
3 – W W Star – Finished in the money in 2 out of 3 career starts; Drops in class today; Trainer and jockey has a high win percentage; Lasix added.
4 – Chaos Comin – Won last race at Tampa Bay Downs; Highest last race speed rating; Early speed running style helps chances.
Longshot:
5 – Candy Road – Finished in the money in 2 out of last 3 starts; Drops in class today; Best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters; Good 3F workout (Jan-30).
Alternate:
2 – Valdero
6 – Efata
$.50 Pick 4: 2,3,4,5,7/3,6/6,7/1,2,3,5,7 – Cost $50.00
Race 3
6 – Pando – Finished 3rd vs tougher in last race; Drops in class today; Trainer and jockey has a high win percentage.
3 – Peace Cloud – Won 2 races out of the last 4 starts; Drops in class today; Has a trainer who wins 46% of the races when taking a horse down 2+ classes.
4 – Speedy Hans – Ran 2nd vs similar in last race; Highest last race speed rating; Can go the distance.
Longshot:
2 – Bourbon State – Won last race at Tampa Bay Downs; Trainer/Jockey combo in last 14 days (3 3-0-0).
Alternate:
8 – Street Glide
Race 4
7 – He’s My Uncle – Finished 3rd vs similar in last race; Has a trainer who wins 34% of the races when using 1st time Lasix; Has a high % winning jockey.
6 – Classic Equation – Finished 3rd in last race; Highest last race speed rating; Jockey has a high win percentage.
1 – Future Blues – Drops in class today; Lasix added; Trainer and jockey have high win rates.
Longshot:
2 – Thirsted – Switches to a high% trainer; has a high % winning jockey; Best turf speed is fastest among today’s starters.
Alternate:
3 – King of the Trail
Race 5-Female
5 – Just Like You – Money finish in 9 of last 10, placed 3rd against tougher last out; trainer and jockey have high win rates.
1 – Hot Dance – Winner of last race at Tampa Bay Downs with the highest last speed rating; trained by a 22% first-after-claim trainer and ridden by a high-percentage jockey.
2 – Moretastic – Likes PARX Racing, finishing in the money in 70% of the races, winning 30% of the starts; can handle the distance, finishing in the money in 58% of the races, winning 25% of the starts.
Longshot:
3 – Glorious Lady – Finished in the money in 5 out of 6 starts at Tampa Bay Downs, winning 2 races; Trainer and jockey have high win rates.
Alternate:
7 – Kip the Distance
8 – Thelastbulletsmine
$.50 Pick 4: 1,2,3,5,7/2,8/1,2,5,7,10/5,7 – Cost $50.00
Race 6
8 – Gideon – Ran 2nd vs similar in only start; Best turf speed is fastest among today’s starters (tie); Has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
2 – Roscommon – Has a trainer who wins 20% of the races when taking a horse down 2+ classes; Has a high % winning jockey; Good 4F workout (Jan-25).
3 – Shoo In – Has a high % winning trainer and jockey; Lasix added.
Longshot:
9 – Rags to Lace – Can improve while trying grass as Dam has 2 winners from 3 starters and 2 Turf winners; Drops in class today; Has a high % winning Jockey.
Alternate:
6 – Reagan’s Renegade
Bet: $20.00 Win: 8 – $10.00 Exacta Box:2/8 – $10.00 Exacta: 8/2,3,9 – $5.00 Exacta Box: 2,3,8
Race 7
1 – Midnight Onyx – Has won her last two races in a row and now goes for a hat trick; Has a high % winning jockey. Has a high % winning trainer.
5 – Paynter’s Prodigy – Finished in the money in last 3 starts, winning the last race; Likes the distance.
7 – Artempus – Won 3 races out of the last 7 starts; Has a trainer who wins 45% of the races when taking a horse down 2+ classes.
Longshot:
10 – King Freud – Won last race at Tampa Bay Downs; Has a high % winning trainer and Jockey.
Alternate:
2 – Action Seeker
9 – Mission Mike
Race 8-Female
5 – Americandreammaker – Finished 3rd vs tougher in last race; Drops in class today; trainer and jockey have high win rates.
7 – Life Advice: Drops in class; trainer wins 61% of races on 2nd start; top speed at this distance; fastest turf speed among today’s runners.
4 – Attending – Second as favorite last race; 22% winning trainer with success in beaten favorites.
Longshot:
2 – My Gal – Finished 3rd vs similar in last race; Can go the distance.
Alternate:
6 – Portrait of Addie
3 – Apple Shake Shake
Best Bet of the Day at Tampa Bay Downs – 6th Race – #8 – Gideon
Rich’s Picks
Race 1: 5 ½ Furlongs – Early Speed, 4/9 w2w – PP: Only 4-7 Tough
7 – PRINCESS HONOR – TLRSP +13 – LS +6 – Top TOTAL PACE and better ATB
5 – SEXPECTATIONS – YES horse and drops in class should be involved early
3 – ADJUST MY HALO – likely pacesetter good work between races
4 – DARK WIND – only horse with better EP and Fractions
$5 Exacta Box: 7/3,4,5
Race 2: 6 Furlongs – Stalkers, 33% w2w – PP: Rail Tough, 4-7 Best by Far
2 – VALDERO – Speed and 1st Lasix – pair of maintenance works between – 3rd career
4 – CHAOS COMIN – TLRSP# +4 – pacesetter and +5 ES edge – Top C ZONE
5 – CANDY ROAD – Only YES horse, SIM FAV – +8 LS and +5 Top TOTAL PACE – biggest dropper
7 – EL OREJON – tough call over the 1 – repeat of his last would be enough – 2 good works between races
$0.50 Pick 4: 2,4,5/3,4,5,8/2,3,4,7/1,7
Race 3: 1 Mile 40 Yards – Speed, 16% w2w – PP: Clear Outside In
4 – SPEEDY HANS – Top TOTAL PACE +5
3 – PEACE CLOUD – SIM FAV and only YES horse and Top C ZONE – drops
5 – ST. LOUIE LOUIE – likely pacesetter – distance 2/1-1-0
8 – STREET GLIDE – tough call over the 6 – but trainer is not – won 6/10 with jockey Gil Cipriano
Race 4: 1 1/16 Miles Turf – Closers, 25% w2w – PP: Mostly Fair 1-7, but 4-7 Best, 8+ Under Par
3 – KING OF THE TRAIL – all noes and 3 maybes – 2.98 – decent works
4 – BODY BY CARVEL – only Pure MSW dropper – best published work
7 – HE’S MY UNCLE – steady performer – better 5 ways and Z Pattern, not sure I’ve seen that before
2 – THIRSTED – SIM FAV – pacesetter with +7 ES edge
$5 Exacta Key Box: 3/2,4,7
Race 5: 6 Furlongs – Stalkers, 33% w2w – PP: Rail Tough, 4-7 Best by Far, 8+ OK
1 – HOT DANCE – 3SP# increase TLRSP#+9 – better late with better early Fractions – biggest in race edge of LS +5 an Top TOTAL PACE
7 – KIP THE DISTANCE – better EP and Fractions – solid C ZONE
3 – GLORIOUS LADY – SIM FAV that should challenge early and class dropper
8 – THELASTBULLETSMINE – very consistent – cut back in distance could help in 3rd up
$0.50 Pick 4: 1,3,7/8,10/1,4,5,7/4,5,6,7
Race 6: 1 1/16 Miles Turf – Closers, 25% w2w – PP: Mostly Fair 1-7, but 4-7 Best, 8+ Under Par
8 – GIDEON – TLRSP# + 9 SIM FAV – +6 LP and Top TOTAL PACE – ONLY YES with 2nd race upside
10 – RED FERN – only Maybe horse – could be on the pace with best C ZONE
2 – ROSCOMMON – better ATB Class dropper
6 – REAGAN’S RENEGADE – better ATB too and class dropper too
Race 7: 1 Mile 40 Yards – Speed, 16% w2w – PP: Clear Outside In
5 – PAYNTER’S PRODIGY – SIM FAV and Top TOTAL PACE +10
1 – MIDNIGHT ONYX – most LS and strong C ZONE
4 – SECRET TREASURE – super steady with C ZONE
7 – ARTEMPUS – out front with +7 ES – better EP and drops
$5 Exacta Key Box: 5/1,2,4,7
Race 8: 1 1/16 Miles Turf – Closers, 25% w2w – PP: Mostly Fair 1-7, but 4-7 Best, 8+ Under Par
5 – AMERICANDREAMMAKER – BIG SIM FAV – Drops
7 – LIFE ADVICE – you have to give the lone E a chance on and easy lead
6 – PORTRAIT OF ADDIE – been off a long time – seen better – would prefer she was not in for a price
4 – ATTENDING – consistent and as good maybe better in the 3rd up
