It’s Humpday at Tampa Bay Downs with an 8-race card featuring 6 races on fast dirt and two 1-mile turf events on firm footing. This kind of balanced Tampa program demands precision. Dirt speed and pace control matter early, while the mile turf races reward timing, class, and trip awareness. On today’s show, Rich and Terry use Smart Sheets to: See the edge in every race Identify Best Bets and Longshots Break down pace setups and surface advantages Build structured race-by-race analysis Separate logical contenders from vulnerable favorites Tampa rewards patience and discipline. If you’re watching the entire card, you’ll start to see how the track is playing and where the strongest advantages show up.
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Terry’s Picks
Tampa Bay Downs – 2-11-26
Race 1-Female
3 – Soundtrack – Likes Tampa Bay Downs, finishing in the money in 78% of the races, winning 22% of the starts; can handle the distance, finishing in the money in 86% of the races, winning 14% of the starts.
7 – Money Magnettes – Won last race at Tampa Bay Downs; Has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
6 – Secret Victory – Finished 3rd vs tougher (on Turf) in last race; Drops in class today; Has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Longshot:
5 – Megantheebattalion – Ran 3rd at Tampa Bay Downs; Can handle today’s distance.
Alternate:
4 – Sunset Express
1 – Brumbodoppelganger
Race 2-Female
4 – Knowledge Is Good – Finished 2nd as favorite last race; Trainer wins 27% with beaten favorites; Has a high % winning jockey.
2 – Lookin Lovely – Highest last race speed rating; High % winning trainer who wins 22% of the Maiden Claiming races; Switches to a high % winning jockey.
8 – Wickedthiswaycomes – Drops in class today; Trainer and jockey has a high win percentage; Lasix added.
Longshot:
6 – Violet’s Charm – Drops in class today; Has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Alternate:
1 – Lilas Oak Tree
$.50 Pick 4: 2,4/1,2,3,7/8,9,10/2,3,7,9 – Cost $48.00
Race 3
7 – Peripoli – Has won 1 race out of 2 career starts at Tampa Bay Downs; Trainer and jockey has a high win percentage.
1 – Hard Talk – Ran 2nd vs similar in last race; Early speed running style helps chances so the shorter distance may help.
2 – Cademan – Won last race at Tampa Bay Downs; Has a high % winning trainer and jockey; Bullet 3F workout (Jan-28).
Longshot:
3 – Charlie Mac Mac – Won 2 races out of 4 career starts at Tampa Bay Downs; Best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters.
Alternate:
4 – Net Profit
Race 4
8 – Giulio Cesare – Finished 3rd vs similar in last race; Has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
10 – Power Wrench – Finished in the money in 1 race out of 2 starts at Tampa Bay Downs; Trainer and Jockey has a high win percentage.
9 – Gigline Finished 3rd vs similar (on Dirt) in last race; Breeding suggests he will like the grass.
Longshot:
3 – Roscommon – Has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Alternate:
4 – Mystic Isle
Race 5–
3 – World Wide Web – Has a trainer who wins 21% of the races when taking a horse from Turf to Dirt; Has a high % winning jockey; Can improve while returning to a sprint.
2 – Polizon – Ran 2nd vs similar in last race; Can improve at the shorter distance; best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters (tie).
9 – Judy Chop – Drops in class today; Best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters (tie); Lasix added.
Longshot:
7 – Liv Has Rizz – First time starter whose Breeding suits today’s sprint distance; Has a high % winning trainer.
Alternate:
4 – Strong Temptation
1 – Lucho
$.50 Pick 4: 2,3,7,9/5,6/6,8/2,4,6,7,8,10 – Cost $48.00
Race 6
5 – Undalay – Ran 2nd vs tougher in only start; Drops in class today; Has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
6 – Limit Up – Finished 3rd vs similar in last race; Highest speed figure at today’s distance; Has a high % winning jockey.
3 – Circle Back Jack – Drops in class today; Has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Longshot:
7 – Sultan the Great – Drops in class today; Can do the distance.
Alternate:
8 – Star Kanoo
10 – Latin Spice
Bet: $20.00 Win: 5 – $10.00 Exacta Box:5/6 – $10.00 Exacta: 5/3,6,7 – $5.00 Exacta Box: 3,5,6
Race 7
6 – Take Your Medicine – Finished in the money in last 4 starts, winning the 1 race; Has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
8 – Profitability – Ran 2nd vs similar in last race; Has a high % winning trainer and Jockey.
2 – Double Echo – Switches to a high % winning jockey; Drops in class today.
Longshot:
11 – Breath Deeply – Highest speed figure at today’s distance; Best dirt speed is close to the Avg Winning Speed.
Alternate:
1 – Island Spirit
Race 8
6 – Sky Masterson – Finished 3rd vs similar in last race; Has a high % winning trainer; Likes the distance.
8 – Fortunate Ryder – Has won 1 race out of 2 starts at Tampa Bay Downs; Has a high % winning trainer and Jockey.
10 – Ky Thirty Won – Should improve while returning to Turf and a route; Trainer/Jockey combo in last 14 days (3 2-0-0).
Longshot:
7 – So So – Won last race at Tampa Bay Downs; Has a high % winning trainer and Jockey.
Alternate:
2 – Ragman
4 – Mr Business
Best Bet of the Day at Tampa Bay Downs – 6th Race – #5 – Undalay
Rich’s Picks
Race 1: 6 Furlongs – Early Speed, 36% w2w – Rail Tough, 2-7 Positive, 8+ Discount
7 – MONEY MAGNETTES – should be on the lead with best C ZONE – 3sp# Increases – 2nd up
3 – SOUNDTRACK – 3 SP# increases too with the TLRSP# – 2nd up – Distance 7/1-5-0
6 – SECRET VICTORY – highly consistent performer – SIM FAV and class dropper
4 – SUNSET EXPRESS – forget her last race – YES horse and biggest class dropper
Race 2: 1 Mile 40 Yards – Stalkers, 18% w2w – PP: Outside In
4 – KNOWLEDGE IS GOOD – better EP and Fractions
6 – VIOLET’S CHARM – Only YES horse – got to have her no matter how bad the PPs look
2 – LOOKIN LOVELY – Top TOTAL PACE and top C ZONE
8 – WICKEDTHISWAYCOMES – good bias fit- has big chance to get the lead and C ZONE
$0.50 Pick 4: 2,4,8/1,3,7/8,9/2,3,4,7,9
Race 3: 6 ½ Furlongs – Early Speed, 29% w2w – Rail Stinks, 2-7 Positive, 8+ Fair
7 – PERIPOLI – 3rd race bounce back coming – Triple Crown nominated
3 – CHARLIE MAC MAC – only YES horse – just needs to rerun his last
1 – HARD TALK – major SIM FAV and top TOTAL PACE – better ATB and drops
4 – NET PROFIT – tough call over the 2 – but pacesetter and more upside in 3rd race
$5 Exacta Key Box: 7/1,3,4
Race 4: 1 Mile Turf – Early Speed, 25% w2w – PP: Rail Discount. 2-7 Positive, 8+ Discount
8 – GIULIO CESARE – Only YES horse – no choice but to have
9 – GIGLINE – could improve in 2nd up – Top C ZONE
2 – GLEAMING – 1st timer score is weak – but you have to have him versus noes
10 – POWER WRENCH – SIM FAV – Top PAR+
Race 5: 5 ½ Furlongs – Early Speed, 5/11 w2w – PP: Rail Discount, 2/3 Bonus, 4-7 Tough, 8+ Bonus
2 – POLIZON – TLRSP# +12 and Top TOTAL PACE +7 – 0 for 11
3 – WORLD WIDE WEB – SIM FAV – cut back in distance and turf to dirt – difference makers?
9 – JUDY CHOP – speed and first time LASIX – lone E
4 – STRONG TEMPTATION – Top RATED 1ster vs all noes and maybes
$0.50 Pick 4: 2,3,4,7,9/5,7/2,8/4,5,6,7,8
Race 6: 5 ½ Furlongs – Early Speed, 5/11 w2w – PP: Rail Discount, 2/3 Bonus, 4-7 Tough, 8+ Bonus
5 – UNDALAY – TLRSP# +5 and Top TOTAL PACE – 3rd up – strong maintenance work
7 – SULTAN THE GREAT – very consistent performer – run back to Dec 20 race and it’s over
3 – CIRCLE BACK JACK – biggest class dropper and 3rd up
6 – LIMIT UP – should be on the lead and better Mid and LP
Race 7: 7 Furlongs – Early Speed, 22% w2w – PP: Rail Stinks, 2/3 Best, 4-7 Discount, 8+ Bonus
2 – DOUBLE ECHO – on the pace – strong C ZONE
8 – PROFITABILITY – 5 ways better – can pair strong races – TLRSP+4
6 – TAKE YOUR MEDICINE – Tampa 4/1-0-3 – small SIM FAV
10 – KOCTEL WAR – biggest class dropper – speed and cut back in distance help
$5 Exacta Key Box: 2/6,8,10
Race 8: 1 Mile Turf – Early Speed, 25% w2w – PP: Rail Discount. 2-7 Positive, 8+ Discount
8 – FORTUNATE RYDER – 3rd up for the 1st time – boom or bust
6 – SKY MASTERSON – super consistent closer – maybe less distance helps?
5 – JIBILIAN – on the lead with a strong C ZONE
7 – SO SO – 5 SP# increases – 5 ways better in last – SIM FAV
$5 Exacta Key Box: 8/4,5,6,7
