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2026 Santa Anita Derby

Horse Racing Today

Saratoga Picks & Analysis Today | A Little Bit of Everything on a Loaded Card

Saratoga delivers a full, diverse card featuring a little bit of everything—stakes quality runners, developing maidens, and even a distance test that challenges both stamina and strategy. With fast dirt and firm turf conditions, today’s races should play true, putting the focus squarely on pace, positioning, and execution. This full-card breakdown uses Smart Sheets to identify: Horses most likely to be forward at the quarter mile Pace control and projected race flow Total Pace and C-Zone advantages Simulated odds compared to the morning line Profile of a Winner indicators across surfaces and distances With such a wide range of race types, the key is adapting to each scenario—recognizing when speed holds, when class separates, and when value emerges in competitive fields. Today’s card is built for sharp handicapping: High-quality races with proven runners Opportunities in developing fields Strategic wagering angles across multiple race types This is a data-driven breakdown designed to help uncover where races are most likely to be won—and where the best value opportunities exist.
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Terry’s Picks

Saratoga – 6-04-2026

Race 1Female

3 – Luminous Beauty: Ran 2nd vs similar in only start; Strong jockey stats.

6 – Margie’s Girl: Finished 3rd vs similar in only start; Good 4F workout (May-29); Strong trainer and jockey stats.

4 – Dinner Party: First time starter whose Sire wins 17% with 1st time Starters; Dam has 1 winners from 2 starters; Has a high % winning trainer and jockey.

Longshot:

5 – Mindee’s World: First time starter whose Sire wins 19% with 1st time Starters; Breeding suits today’s sprint distance; Has a high % winning trainer and jockey; Good 4F workout (May-23).

Alternate:

7 – Biblical Justice

Race 2-Female

6 – Mythical: Has won 7 races out of 9 career starts; Best Dirt Speed is fastest among today’s starters; Bullet 3F workout (May-28).

1 – Carmel Coast: Won last race at Churchill Downs; Strong trainer and jockey stats.

4 – Paige Turner: Ran 2nd vs similar in last race; Has a high % winning trainer who wins 24% of the Non-Graded Stakes; Strong jockey stats.

Longshot:

3 – Goodall: Finished in the money in 3 races out of the 4 career starts, winning 2 races; Drops in class today; Has a high % winning trainer and jockey.

Alternate:

5 – Irish Jig

2 – Oscar Bound

$.50 Pick 4: 1,3,4,6/8,9/2,6,7/1,4,7,11 – Cost $48.00 

Race 3-

9 – West End Kid: Won last race at Churchill Downs; Best Turf Speed is fastest among today’s starters (tie); Strong trainer and jockey stats.

8 – Glavine: Won last race at Aqueduct; Has a high % winning jockey.

1 – Bottas: Won 2 races out of 3 career starts; Has a high % winning trainer and jockey.

Longshot:

4 – Noble Dynasty: Won 2 races out of the last 3 starts; Best Turf Speed is fastest among today’s starters (tie); Has a high % winning trainer and Irad Ortiz is in the irons.

Alternate:

5 – Blackmail

Race 4Female

6 – Directive: Won last race by 8-lengths; Has a high % winning trainer and jockey.

2 – Pure Joy: Finished in the money in 4 races out of the 4 career starts, winning the last race; Highest last race speed rating; Has a high % winning trainer and jockey.

7 – Metfardeh: Finished 3rd vs similar in last race; Strong trainer and jockey stats.

Longshot:

3 – U Lite Up My Life: Won last race by at Oaklawn Park; Strong trainer and jockey stats.

Alternate:

5 – Measure

1 – Bernieandtherose

$.50 Pick 4: 2,3,6,7/1,4,7,11/3,8,12/7,8 – Cost $48.00 

Race 5Female

11 – Florida Patriot: Ran 2nd vs similar in only start; Has a high % winning trainer and jockey.

7 – I’m Very Sweet: Finished in the money in 4 races out of the 4 career starts; Strong trainer and jockey stats.

4 – Bourbon Milk Punch: Finished 3rd vs similar in last race; Can improve at the shorter distance; Best Turf Speed is fastest among today’s starters; Strong trainer and jockey stats.

Longshot:

1 – My Divine Spirit: Ran 2nd vs similar in last race; Strong jockey stats.

Alternate:

10 – Clearly Sophia

Race-6-Female

12 – Tuthilltown: Finished in the money in 4 races out of 4 career starts, finishing 2nd vs similar in last race; Best Dirt Speed is fastest among today’s starters; Has a high % winning trainer and jockey.

3 – Careless Whisper: Ran 2nd vs similar in only start; Strong trainer and jockey stats; Good 5F workout (May-27).

8 – Liberty’s Advance: Finished in the money in 2 races out of 4 career starts; Strong trainer and jockey stats; Good 4F workout (May-29).

Longshot:

1 – Lake Ariel: Finished 3rd vs similar in last race; Strong jockey stats.

Alternate:

11 – Gotta Gun Runner

Race 7-

7 – Right to Vote: A closer who can catch the front speed at the finish; Has a high % winning trainer and jockey.

8 – Operation Overlord: Finished 3rd vs similar in last race; Highest last race speed rating; Can improve at the shorter distance; Has a high % winning trainer and jockey.

1 – Likeness: Finished 3rd in last race, winning the previous race; Strong trainer and jockey stats; Good 4F workout (May-29).

Longshot:

9 – I Am I Said: Won in 2 out of 4 career starts; Has a high % winning trainer and jockey.

Alternate:

10 – Monterey Bay

Race -8-Female

7 – Gratefully: Undefeated in 5 career starts; Strong trainer and jockey stats; Bullet 4F workout (May-28).

9 – Shoot It True: Finished in the money in 8 races out of the last 10 starts, winning 4 races; Has a high % winning trainer and jockey.

3 – In Our Time: Won last race at Keenland; Has a high % winning trainer and jockey: Likes the distance.

Longshot:

2 – Creed’s Gold: Finished in the money in the last 4 starts, winning 2 races and finishing 3rd in last race; Strong trainer and jockey stats.

Alternate:

4 – Ready to Jam

$.50 Pick 4: 2,3,4,7,9/1,8/1,2,3,7,8/1,6 – Cost $50.00

Race 9-

1 – Miami Frank: Ran 2nd in last race as the favorite but has a high % winning trainer who wins 29% of the races when bringing a beaten favorite back; has a high % winning jockey; Good 4F workout (May-24).

8 – Georgia Magic: Likes Saratoga, finishing in the money in 50% of the races, winning 50% of the starts; At today’s distance, finishing in the money in 40% of the races, winning 20% of the starts.

4 – Sequential: Always in the hunt finishing in the money last 7 starts at Saratoga, winning the last race; Has a high % winning jockey.

Longshot:

2 – Magnanimous Max: Won the last 2 races in a row going for a hat trick; Strong trainer and jockey stats; Likes the distance.

Alternate:

7 – Cocktailsnkringle

6 – Apalta

Race 10-

1 – Flashiest: Ran 2nd in last race; Rail post is winning at a18% clip; Has a high % winning trainer and jockey.

2 – Navy Seal: Finished in the money in all the races at Saratoga, winning 1 race; Has a high % winning trainer and jockey.

3 – Tawny Port: Has shown in the past that he can go the 2-mile distance; Best Turf Speed is fastest among today’s starters; Strong trainer and jockey stats.

Longshot:

8 – Fleetfoot: Won both races at today’s distance, winning the last race; Strong jockey stats.

Alternate:

7 – Corruption: Finished 3rd in last race; Strong trainer and jockey stats.

6 – Concord Green

Race 11-Female

6 – Dividend Recap: Won last race at Aqueduct easily; Strong trainer and jockey stats.

1 – Pretty Lavish: Best Turf Speed is fastest among today’s starters; Strong trainer and jockey stats.

3 – Heavenly Light: Finished 3rd vs similar in last race, winning the 2 previous races; Has a high % winning trainer and jockey.

Longshot:

2 – River Tay: Won her last 4 races; Strong trainer stats.

Alternate:

12 – Autonome

Bet: $20.00 Win: 6 – $10.00 Exacta Box:1/6 – $10.00 Exacta: 6/1,2,3 – $5.00 Exacta Box: 1,3,6

Best Bet of the Day at PARX Racing – 11th Race – #6 – Dividend Recap

Rich’s Picks

Race 1: 5 ½ Furlongs – Early Speed, Inside Out

7 – BIBLICAL JUSTICE – top rated 1ster with some strong works

6 – MARGIE’S GIRL – 2nd race Parability with strong work between starts

3 – LUMINOUS BEAUTY – 2nd race Parability with early speed

2 – MEL WENT HOME – not the highest rated 1ster and has an excellent work

$0.50 Trifecta Box: 2,3,6,7

Race 2: 6 Furlongs – Stalkers – Inside Out

6 – MYTHICAL – TLRSP#+4  as SIM FAV with by far best C ZONE

4 – PAIGE TURNER – Top TOTAL PACE – better in 2nd up with a bullet work

1 – CARMEL COAST – only non win in 3 was a GI – better EP

3 – GOODALL – on the lead with a strong C ZONE

$0.50 Pick 4: 1,4,6/6,9/1,3,6/1,4,5,7,11

Race 3: 1 1/16 Miles Inner Turf – Closers, Rail Solid, 2/3 Discount, 4-7 Bonus, 8+ Almost Fair

6 – BLINGING IT BACK – SIM FAV and Top TOTAL PACE – Only YES

9 – WEST END KID – won the last 2 with ease and a little better in each race

4 – NOBLE DYNASTY – consistent and definitely rolling at the end

5 – BLACKMAIL – strongest C ZONE – 2nd up improvement?

$0.50 Trifecta Box: 4,5,6,9

Race 4: 1 1/8 Miles – Stalkers, Inside Out

6 – DIRECTIVE – smoked the field in her last with 3rd race bounce back potential

1 – BERNIEANDTHEROSE – YES horse on the lead as top C ZONE

3 – U LITE UP MY LIFE – SIM FAV with strong C ZONE and the other YES

2 – PURE JOY – tough call over the 7 – more upside potential

$0.50 Pick 4: 1,3,6/4,5,11/2,3,5,9,12/7,8

Race 5: 5 ½ Furlongs Turf – Stalkers, 2-7 Best

4 – BOURBON MILK PUNCH – YES horse – flipping to Irad with solid works

5 – CHART THE COURSE – 3.0 firster with some great works 4f in 46.1 breezing

11 – FLORIDA PATRIOT – 2nd race upside with +12 TOTAL PACE

7 – I’M VERY SWEET – tough call over the 1 – but Brown put Prat her for the 1st time

$0.50 Trifecta Box: 4,5,7,11

Race 6: 7 Furlongs – Stalkers – Mostly Fair

3 – CARELESS WHISPER – 2nd race Parability vs all Noes and 2 other Maybes

5 – ENTERPRISINGLY – another with 2nd race Parability

2 – SUITED CONNECTORS – Top Rated 1ster and trainer fires 1st up at 31%

12 – TUTHILLTOWN – SIM FAV and Top TOTAL PACE

$0.50 Trifecta Box: 2,3,5,12

Race 7: 1 3/8 Miles Inner Turf – Closers – Rail Discount, 2/3 No Good, 4-7 Best, 8+ Fair

7 – RIGHT TO VOTE – Top TOTAL PACE +9 – 2nd up after more than a year off

8 – OPERATION OVERLORD – 3 SP# increases w/ TLRSP#+11 and SIM FAV

5 – GREYSTONE – YES horse charging at the end

10 – MONTEREY BAY – strong breeding and a Wesley Ward turf horse

$0.50 Trifecta Box: 5,7,8,10

Race 8: 5 ½ Furlongs Turf – Stalkers, 2-7 Best

9 – SHOOT IT TRUE – most upside in the race and SIM FAV – 2/2 at Toga

7 – GRATEFULLY – Top TOTAL PACE with best Average SIM SP#

2 – CREED’S GOLD – super consistent ITM 9/11 on grass and 3rd up – better ATB

10 – ROJA – tough call over the 3 – but taking Irad on the Pacesetter with 3 wins and second in 4 at the distance

$0.50 Pick 4: 2,7,9/1,2,8,10/7,8/2,4,6,9

Race 9: 1 Mile – Early Speed, Mostly Fair but 8+ the Best

1 – MIAMI FRANK – Standout C ZONE and Top TOTAL PACE

2 – MAGNANIMOUS MAX – crushed it in her last and room for more in 2nd up

10 – NORWICH – much better EP in last and resume says 3rd up as good or a lot better

8 – GEORGIA MAGIC – SIM FAV with 3 SP# increases and Irad – won last time he rode

$0.50 Trifecta Box: 1,2,6,8

Race 10: 2 Miles – oh boy

7 – CORRUPTION – average race as good as the best for most other and most upside

8 – FLEETFOOT – distance ain’t a problem 2/2 – strong C ZONE and yes horse

1 – FLASHIEST – better EP with triple digit speed figure ability

3 – TAWNY PORT – SIM FAV – not my favorite horse

$2 Exacta Key Box: 7/1,2,3,8

Race 11: 1 1/16 Miles Turf – Closers, 2/3 Great, the rest under par and 8+ Bad

6 – DIVIDEND RECAP – maybe better in 2nd up – 4 high quality starts in 5 races

4 – MO COMPLEX – top TOTAL PACE could be on the lead with betting value
9 – PRINCESS SUMMER – SIM FAV yes horse at a price and some really good works – why not

2 – RIVER TAY – top closer in the race with strong C ZONE and right post

$0.50 Trifecta Box: 2,4,6,9

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