Humpday at Churchill Downs brings a challenging 9-race card loaded with uncertainty, featuring five maiden races filled with lightly raced and first-time starters still searching for their first win. These are the races where chaos often creates opportunity, and where Smart Sheets can uncover value that traditional handicapping may miss. Today’s full-card analysis focuses on pace projections, Total Pace and C-Zone advantages, simulated odds versus the morning line, quarter-mile positioning, and Profile of a Winner indicators designed to identify overlooked contenders before the betting public catches on. If you’re looking for hidden upside, live longshots, and potential overlays, this Churchill Downs card offers plenty of opportunities to capitalize on mispriced horses.

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Race 1

Terry’s Picks

1. 3 – Relevate: Best Dirt Speed is fastest among today’s starters; Strong trainer and jockey stats.
2. 4 – Berlinwin: Has a 2nd out of 3 starts at Churchill Downs; Trainer who wins 50% of the races in the 2nd start with the trainer.
3. 7 – Let ‘er Sizzle: Drops in class today; Has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
4. Longshot: 5 – Kyler: Drops in class today; Can improve while trying Dirt; Switches to a high % winning jockey; Has a high % winning trainer wins 21% of the races when taking a horse from Turf to Dirt.

Rich’s Picks

1. 4 – BERLINWIN – could be close to the front – better in 2nd up with Top TOTAL PACE +6
2. 3 – RELEVATE – SIM FAV – YES horse with best C ZONE
3. 1 – LEXI’S MELODY – TLRSP#+3 while being better
4. 6 – PREACH TEWMEY NOW – 1st timer versus and the rest are noes

Suggested Bet: $0.50 Trifecta Box: 1,3,4,6

Race 2

Terry’s Picks

1. 7 – Bon Voyage: First time starter whose Dam has 6 winners from 8 starters and 2 stakes winners; Has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
2. 5 – Clonmacnoise: First time starter whose Dam has 2 winners from 3 starters; Good 3F workout (Jun-04).
3. 2 – Icebreak: First time starter whose Sire wins 16% with 1st time Starters; Has a high % winning trainer who wins 19% of the Maiden Sp Wt races; Has a high % winning jockey.
4. Longshot: 1 – Very Classy: First-time starter; strong jockey; good 4F workout (May-30).

Suggested Bet: $.50 Pick 4: 1,2,5,6,7/1,6/1,2,3,5,6/4,5 – Cost $50.00

Rich’s Picks

1. 7 – BON VOYAGE – Tops Rated first timers ranked in order
2. 2 – ICEBREAK
3. 8 – STAZITTO
4. 1 – VERY CLASSY

Suggested Bet: $0.50 Pick 4: 1,2,7,8/1,7/2,3,6/1,2,4,5

Race 3

Terry’s Picks

1. 1 – Warrior Richard: Finished 3rd vs tougher in last race; Highest last race speed rating; Highest speed figure at today’s distance; Has a high % winning trainer.
2. 6 – Dai Vernon: Finished in the money in 4 races out of 6 starts at Churchill Downs; Drops in class today; Switches to a high % winning trainer; Has a high % winning jockey; Bullet 4F workout (Jun-03).
3. 2 – Tres Soles: Finished in the money in 7 races out of the last 8 starts; Has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
4. Longshot: 7 – Saltwater Cowboy: Won 2 races out of the last 4 starts; Early speed running style helps chances; Good 5F workout (May-31).

Rich’s Picks

1. 1- WARRIOR RICHARD – It’s all in the name and +5 TLRSP# and Top TOTAL PACE
2. 7 – SALTWATER COWBOY – very likely pacesetter – better LP and early fractions
3. 3 – NOTARY – could be the best betting value in the race – YES but CD 10/0-0-0
4. 6 – DAI VERNON – been working well – 3 bullets – CD 6/2-1-1

Suggested Bet: $5 Exacta Key Box: 1/3,5,7

Race 4

Terry’s Picks

1. 2 – Banana Frost: First time starter who has a high % winning trainer and jockey; Good 4F workout (May-31).
2. 6 – Voyager: First time starter who has a high % winning trainer and jockey; Bullet 5F workout (May-31).
3. 8 – Devilish Delight: First time starter whose Sire wins 17% with 1st time Starters; Dam has 1 winner from 2 starters; Has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
4. Longshot: 5 – I’m With Her: First time starter whose Dam has 2 winners from 3 starters; Has a high % winning trainer who wins 18% of the 2YO races; Breeding suits today’s sprint distance; Has a high % winning jockey.

Rich’s Picks

1. 2 – BANANA FROST – 1ster with top Score and BGO
2. 6 – VOYAGER – not the best score – but only with BGO and BB
3. 3 – VIOLENT GAL – rest ranked in order
4. 8 – DEVILISH DELIGHT

Race 5

Terry’s Picks

1. 5 – Solaia: Just missed by a neck of winning the first 2 career starts; Has a high % winning trainer and jockey; Blinkers added today.
2. 4 – Lil Tipsy: Finished in the money in the 2 races out of the last 4 starts; Best Dirt Speed is fastest among today’s starters; Has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
3. 2 – Shot At Perfection: Ran 2nd vs similar in last race; Has a high % winning trainer and jockey; Good 4F workout (May-31).
4. Longshot: 3 – Angel From Marin: Drops in class today; Has a trainer who wins 22% of the 1st Maiden Claiming race; Good 4F workout (Jun-03).

Rich’s Picks

1. 4 – LIL TIPSY – only YES horse = must have
2. 5 – SOLAIA – on the lead all by myself +7 ES
3. 1 – TUMBLEWEED QUEEN – top Rated 1ster with some strong works
4. 2 – SHOT AT PERFECTION – TLRSP#+ 5 – decent works prepping

Race 6

Terry’s Picks

1. 9 – Out of Deductions: Finished in the money in 2 races out of 3 starts, winning 1 race at Churchill Downs; Drops in class today; Has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
2. 6 – Sugoi: Finished 3rd vs tougher in last race; Drops in class today; Best Turf Speed is fastest among today’s starters.
3. 5 – Fast Solution: Undefeated in 3 career starts; Good 4F workout (May-29).
4. Longshot: 1 – American Pope: Turf and distance suit; strong trainer/jockey.

Suggested Bet: $.50 Pick 4: 1,5,6,9/1,3,7/5,7/2,7,8,11 – Cost $48.00

Rich’s Picks

1. 5 – FAST SOLUTION – undefeated in 3 – been off 16 months – works suggest he is ready
2. 6 – SUGOI -fairly consistent with the most upside – only better 5 ways
3. 9 – DEMOLITION DUKE – top closer and should be part of the EP – drops a length
4. 4 – SAINT IN THE CITY – on the pace as the biggest class dropper

Suggested Bet: $0.50 Pick 4: 4,5,6,9/1,3,8/4,5/5,7,8,13

Race 7

Terry’s Picks

1. 3 – Capital Connection: Finished in the money in 9 races out of the last 10 starts, winning the last 2 races; Has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
2. 1 – Guardian: Won last race easily; Has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
3. 7 – Send Cash: Won last race at Gulfstream Park; Can handle the distance.
4. Longshot: 2 – Skynet: Won the last 2 races in a row going for a hat trick; Strong trainer and jockey stats.

Rich’s Picks

1. 3 – CAPITAL CONNECTION – only class dropper – big C ZONE Edge – ITM 9/9 distance
2. 8 – COOL COWBOY – YES horse with the most LP in race where all of Pilots and Co Pilots
3. 1 – GUARDIAN – only better ATB – won by 10 in last – much faster in last
4. 4 – TIGER’S LEGACY – last of the YES horses and offers some value

Suggested Bet: $0.50 Trifecta Box: 1,3,4,8

Race 8

Terry’s Picks

1. 5 – Rothko: Finished in the money in the 4 races out of 5 career starts, winning 2 races; Has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
2. 9 – Bullard: Ran 2nd in last race; Strong trainer and jockey stats.
3. 2 – Inexorable: Finished 3rd in last race; Strong trainer and jockey stats.
4. Longshot: 8 – Touchy: Finished in the money in 7 races out of 9 career starts, winning 2 races; Has a high % winning trainer and jockey.

Suggested Bet: $20.00 Win: 5 – $10.00 Exacta Box:5/9 – $10.00 Exacta: 5/2,8,9 – $5.00 Exacta Box: 2,5,9

Rich’s Picks

1. 5 – ROTHKO – TLRSP# +4 as SIM FAV – only better ATB and drops
2. 4 – JOHN HANCOCK – on the PACE with strong C ZONE – chance to really pop in 2nd after more than a year off
3. 9 – BULLARD – 3rd up for Top TOTAL PACE horse with the most upside
4. 8 – TOUCHY – should also press early as top C ZONE

Race 9

Terry’s Picks

1. 7 – Lady Jancis: Beaten only 1-3/4 lengths vs similar in only start; Highest last race speed rating.
2. 8 – Mundy Sweep: Has a high % winning trainer who wins 19% of the races in the 2nd career race a horse has; Lasix added; Good 4F workout (Jun-04).
3. 2 – Last Curtain Call: Best Turf Speed is fastest among today’s starters; Can improve in 2nd start since layoff.
4. Longshot: 5 – Eve: Breeding suggests she will like the grass; Strong trainer and jockey stats.

Rich’s Picks

1. 7 – LADY JANCIS -Yes Horse with robust 2nd race upside
2. 5 – EVE – 3.0 firster with a couple a back bullets
3. 8 – MUNDY SWEEP – 2nd Best 2nd Race Parabilty – great works prepping for first since NOV
4. 13 – BEAU CUP – tough call over the other YES horse – 2 – but more upside in 2nd race

Suggested Bet: $5 Exacta Key Box: 5/2,7,8,13

Best Bets

Terry’s Best Bet of the Day: Race 8 – #5 Rothko