Saratoga features another competitive nine-race card today on fast dirt and firm turf. After a day when favorites controlled much of the action, today’s challenge is finding the value horses before the betting public catches on.

History tells us that Saratoga does not allow the chalk to dominate forever. Several races on today’s card feature logical favorites who could become vulnerable because of pace pressure, difficult trips or short prices. That creates opportunities for disciplined handicappers willing to let probability—not popularity—guide their wagers.

Today’s Smart Sheets breakdown identifies horses most likely to be forward at the quarter mile, projected pace control, Total Pace and C-Zone standouts, simulated odds compared to the morning line, Profile of a Winner indicators and potential overlays hiding behind the favorites.

Yesterday belonged to the chalk. Today, the goal is to identify legitimate value, build stronger Pick 4 and Pick 5 tickets and find the horses capable of producing prices at the Spa.

Founders Club: https://horseracingtoday.net/smart-sheets-daily-horse-racing-analytics-pace-value/

🎯 Download the Smart Sheets
https://horseracingtoday.net/wp-content/uploads/2026/07/SAR_20260723_3df1cc_HRT.pdf

👉 Smart Sheets Explanations
https://horseracingtoday.net/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/HRTSmartSheetsExplanations.pdf

☕ Tip Jar: support the show if our picks help you cash!
https://www.paypal.com/donate/?hosted_button_id=7EY3A57YHD44J

Support us with HRT Gear:
https://horse-racing-today.myspreadshop.com/all

*All information is for entertainment purposes only

Terry’s Picks

Race 1 – Female

3 – Bounding Along: Ran 2nd in only start; Has a high % winning trainer and jockey.

2 – Key Actress: 3rd vs tougher on turf last; early speed suits shorter trip; sharp 4F work Jul-18; strong trainer/jockey stats.

9 – Authentic Beauty: Finished 3rd vs tougher in last race; Drops in class today; strong trainer/jockey stats.

Longshot

5 – Credit Risk: Can improve while returning to Dirt; Best Dirt Speed is fastest among today’s starters; Blinkers added today; Good 3F workout (Jul-12).

Alternates

6 – Run On States

7 – Noisetomakenoise

Suggested Wager

No suggested wager from Terry.

Rick’s Picks

Race 1: 7 Furlongs – Early Speed – 47% w2w – Dominating Rail and Strong 2/3

3 – BOUNDING ALONG – 2nd race Parability way past par and drops a little

2 – KEY ACTRESS – Yes horse – SIM FAV and top PAR+ with most upside to date

5 – CREDIT RISK – YES horse with Top TOTAL PACE of 1 ½ Lengths

6 – RUN ON STATES – biggest drop and edge of 1 length ES where 47% go w2w – Top C ZONE

Suggested Wager

No suggested wager.

Terry’s Picks

Race 2

5 – Blast Furnace: Drops in class today; Best Turf Speed is fastest among today’s starters; strong trainer/jockey stats.

3 – Light Fantastic: Won last race at Aqueduct; high % winning trainer wins 31% in 1st race after claim; high-% winning jockey.

2 – Maximum Promise: Highest last race speed rating; Drops in class today; trainer wins 29% 2nd race after claim.

Longshot

8 – Gun Barrel City: Drops in class today; Trainer wins 30% in 1st start Claiming.

Alternate

7 – Middle Market

Suggested Wager

$0.50 Pick 4: 2,3,5,8 / 1,3,8,9 / 2,5 / 2,4,9

Cost: $48.00

Rick’s Picks

Race 2: 1 1/16 Miles Turf – Closers – None from Rail, 2/3 Fair, 4-7 Best, 8+ Almost Fair

3 – LIGHT FANTASTIC – could be on lead alone as Top TOTAL PACE

2 – MAXIMUM PROMISE – most UPSIDE and has seen better

8 – GUN BARREL CITY – Top closer – and by far best turf breeding – just 6th race as 5 yo

5 – BLAST FURNACE – SIM FAV – YES horse with top PAR+

Suggested Wager

$0.50 Pick 4: 2,3,5,8 / 1,7,9 / 2,5 / 1,2,4,9

Terry’s Picks

Race 3

3 – Norwich: Drops in class today; Trainer wins 22% in Claiming races; Can improve while returning to a sprint; Good 4F workout (Jul-12); strong trainer/jockey stats.

9 – Hey Toby: Drops in class; high % winning trainer wins 33% 2nd after claim; high-% jockey.

1 – Normandy Coast: Rail wins 32%; class drop; strong trainer/jockey; good 3F work Jul-12.

Longshot

8 – Sheriff Bianco: Won 2 races out of the last 4 starts; Has a high % winning trainer and jockey.

Alternate

7 – Mr Skylight

Suggested Wager

No suggested wager from Terry.

Rick’s Picks

Race 3: 7 Furlongs – Early Speed – 47% w2w – Dominating Rail and Strong 2/3

1 – NORMANDY COAST – SIM FAV on the lead with ES and drops – most upside

7 – MR SKYLIGHT – Top TOTAL PACE – only w/ better EP/Fractions and Drops

9 – HEY TOBY – YES – Top PAR+ and some betting value as SIM FAV – Toga 2/1-0-1

3 – NORWICH – Top C ZONE in chaos race

Suggested Wager

$0.50 Pick 5: 1,7,9 / 5 / 1,2,4 / 1,2,9,10 / 3,5

Terry’s Picks

Race 4

2 – Spirit of St Louis: Ran 2nd in last race; Highest speed figure at today’s distance; Best Turf Speed is fastest among today’s starters (tie); strong trainer/jockey stats; Bullet 4F workout (Jul-16).

5 – Salamis: Won 3 races out of the last 5 start; Drops in class today; strong trainer/jockey stats.

7 – Sand Pipes: Finished 3rd vs similar in last race; strong trainer/jockey stats; Bullet 5F workout (Jul-9).

Longshot

1 – Britain’s Kitten: Ran 2nd on all-weather in last race; Has a high % winning jockey.

Alternate

6 – Sea Singer

Suggested Wager

$0.50 Pick 4: 2,5 / 1,2,4,6,9 / 1,5,6,9,10 / 3,5

Cost: $50.00

Rick’s Picks

Race 4: 1 1/8 Miles Inner Turf – Stalkers – All from Posts 2/3 in Three Races

5 – SALAMIS – TLRSP# +3 – Prat and Brown drops from 3 consecutive Graded Stakes

2 – SPIRIT OF ST LOUIS – winner 3/5 at the distance with strong C ZONE

4 – CAPTURE THE FLAG – biggest class dropper and top C ZONE in a chaos race

6 – SEA SINGER – 2nd up after more than a year off – turf breeding is off the charts

Suggested Wager

$0.50 Pick 4: 2,4,5 / 1,2,4,9 / 1,2,9,10 / 3,5

Terry’s Picks

Race 5 – Female

9 – Side Quest: Upgrades to a high-% jockey; turf breeding; high-% trainer wins 33% first-time blinkers.

4 – Cadillac Mary: Finished 3rd vs similar in only start; strong trainer/jockey stats.

2 – Quoted: First-time starter whose breeding suits today’s sprint distance; strong trainer/jockey stats.

Longshot

1 – Cody’s Approval: First-time starter bred for turf and sprints; strong trainer/jockey stats; bullet 4F work Jul-16.

Alternates

6 – All Show

5 – By Grace

Suggested Wager

No suggested wager from Terry.

Rick’s Picks

Race 5: 5 1/2 Furlongs Turf – Stalkers – Rail and Posts 8+

4 – CADILLAC MARY – 2nd race Parability way past Par and drops

1 – CODY’S APPROVAL – top Rated 1ster with BGO

2 – QUOTED – 2nd rated 1ster with BB

9 – SIDE QUEST – 2nd best 2nd race Parability

Suggested Wager

$5 Exacta Key Box: 4 / 1,2,9

Terry’s Picks

Race 6

1 – Ancient World: Rail post is winning at a 42% clip; Switches to a high % winning jockey; high % winning trainer wins 25% of Claiming races; Highest speed figure at today’s distance.

9 – Schlomo: Early speed running style helps chances at the shorter distance; Good 3F workout (Jul-15).

6 – Otto Nipoti: Won last race; Highest last race speed rating; Good 4F workout (Jul-17).

Longshot

5 – Three Little Birds: Finished 3rd in last race; Has a high % winning trainer.

Alternates

10 – Tapwrits Temper

7 – Epitaph

Suggested Wager

$0.50 Pick 4: 1,5,6,9 / 3,5 / 1,2 / 1,3,4,5,6,7

Cost: $48.00

Rick’s Picks

Race 6: 6 Furlongs – Early Speed – 58% w2w – Post Position Dominating Inside 3

1 – ANCIENT WORLD – rail with speed – perfect bias fit

10 – TAPWRITS TEMPER – opposite of bias fit – +6 LS edge and Top TOTAL PACE

2 – LIBERTY RISING – biggest dropper – most upside and standout C ZONE

9 – SCHLOMO – only better EP/FRACTIONS and drops – ITM 4/4 at distance

Suggested Wager

$0.50 Pick 4: 1,2,9,10 / 3,5 / 1,4,7 / 1,3,4,10

Terry’s Picks

Race 7 – Female

3 – All of It: Won both career races; Highest speed figure at today’s distance; Has a high % winning jockey.

5 – Celtic Dawn: Undefeated in 3 career starts; Switches to a high % jockey; Strong 5F workout (Jul-14).

8 – Considerate City: Finished in the money in 5 of the last 7 starts; Strong trainer and jockey stats.

Longshot

1 – New York Special: Finished in the money in both career starts, winning the most recent; Proven at today’s distance.

Alternate

7 – Cosmic Candy Girl

Suggested Wager

No suggested wager from Terry.

Rick’s Picks

Race 7: 1 1/16 Miles Inner Turf – Early Speed – 46% Wire-to-Wire – Inside 3 Strong, Posts 4-7 Weak, 8+ Fair

5 – CELTIC DAWN – On the pace with a Top TOTAL PACE rating of +8 and the lone class dropper.

3 – ALL OF IT – Best simulated speed figure and unbeaten in two convincing victories.

8 – CONSIDERATE CITY – Top C ZONE horse in a competitive race.

1 – NEW YORK SPECIAL – Grades well in most key Smart Sheets categories despite being the lone “No” horse.

Suggested Wager

No suggested wager.

Terry’s Picks

Race 8 – Female

1 – Munnings Express: Finished in the money in all 10 career starts, winning 5; High-percentage trainer and jockey; Bullet 4F workout (Jul-12).

2 – Senza Parole: Finished 3rd against tougher company last out; Drops in class today; Strong trainer and jockey stats.

4 – Beauty Reigns: Finished in the money in 6 of her last 8 starts, winning 2; Strong trainer and jockey stats; Bullet 5F workout (Jul-17).

Longshot

7 – Reputation: Finished 3rd against tougher company last out after winning her previous two races; Switches to a high-percentage trainer and jockey.

Alternates

6 – Queen’s Martini

8 – Beyond Belief

Suggested Wagers

$20 Win: #1 Munnings Express

$10 Exacta Box: 1 / 2

$10 Exacta: 1 / 2,4,7

$5 Exacta Box: 1,2,4

Rick’s Picks

Race 8: 7 Furlongs – Early Speed – 47% Wire-to-Wire – Dominating Rail and Strong Posts 2/3

1 – MUNNINGS EXPRESS – Another outstanding bias fit. Projects to control the pace and owns the top C ZONE rating.

7 – REPUTATION – Smart Sheets favorite with the top TOTAL PACE figure.

4 – BEAUTY REIGNS – Only runner above 50% PAR+ while also posting the best simulated speed figure.

2 – SENZA PAROLE – Drops out of a Grade II for the Brown/Ortiz team. Saratoga record: 3 starts, 1 win, 1 second.

Suggested Wager

No suggested wager.

Terry’s Picks

Race 9 – Female

7 – Garden of Grace: Finished in the money in 7 of 12 career starts; Drops in class today; Owns the fastest Turf Speed figure among today’s starters; Strong trainer and jockey stats.

6 – You Know Better: Finished 3rd against similar company last out; Tied for the highest last-race speed figure; Jockey upgrade.

4 – Avery’s Wonderland: Switches to a high-percentage jockey; Trainer wins 37% with second-time Lasix runners.

Longshot

5 – Dancing Miracle: Runner-up on all-weather in the last start; Strong trainer and jockey combination.

Alternates

1 – Blue Authenticity

3 – Midtown Mischief

Suggested Wager

No suggested wager from Terry.

Rick’s Picks

Race 9: 5 1/2 Furlongs Turf – Stalkers – Rail and Posts 8+

1 – BLUE AUTHENTICITY – Third-race bounce-back candidate for a “YES” horse and could prove difficult to catch.

3 – MIDTOWN MISCHIEF – Third-race bounce-back with the top TOTAL PACE figure.

10 – ANNA BROCKNANA – Strong second-race parability after showing early speed in the debut.

4 – AVERY’S WONDERLAND – “YES” horse with a standout C ZONE advantage.

Suggested Wager

$5 Exacta Key Box: 1 / 3,4,10

Terry’s Best Bet of the Day

Saratoga – Race 8

#1 – Munnings Express

Munnings Express has done everything asked throughout her career, finishing in the money in all ten starts while winning five. She enters this spot with a sharp bullet workout, proven class, and one of the strongest trainer-jockey combinations on the card. Her consistency, tactical speed, and affinity for the seven-furlong distance make her the horse to beat and Terry’s Best Bet of the Day.

Good luck, and enjoy today’s racing at Saratoga!