Rich goes it alone today for eight races at Delaware Park, with six races on fast dirt and two on firm turf. The card also gives us three maiden races — exactly the kind of races where the obvious numbers don’t always tell the whole story.
That’s where Smart Sheets can help make the ambiguous a little clearer. With lightly raced horses, first-time starters and runners still trying to establish what they’re capable of, we’ll dig deeper into: First Timer scores, bullets and workout patterns PAR and second-race Parability SIM Odds versus the Morning Line Speed and pace upside Improvement patterns Class changes Projected race shape Horses the public may be overlooking The goal isn’t to pretend we know everything about horses with limited data. It’s to identify what we do know, reduce the unknowns and find an edge where the betting public may be guessing.
The goal isn’t to pretend we know everything about horses with limited data. It’s to identify what we do know, reduce the unknowns and find an edge where the betting public may be guessing.
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Rich’s Ranks
Race 1: 1 Mile – Early Speed, Mostly Fair, 8+ Bump
6 – AS THE BELL TOLES – a little Metallica – most upside on the pace with TLRSP#+5
1 – STYLISH GEM – could challenge the 6 for the lead
4 – RULES FOR THREE – biggest in race edge of a length LS
3 – WARRIORS JEWEL – YES horse with the 6 and signs of life in last
Race 2: 5 ½ Furlongs – Outside in Early Speed
7 – TROPHY ROOM (Longshot) – profile fit – with a standout C ZONE
1 – LITTLE LANCE – could be on the pace too with top TOTAL PACE
6 – POWERFUL – most upside – better EP/Fractions and drops
2 – THE JUDGE AND JURY – tough call over the 3 – but better Delaware numbers
Exacta Key Box: 7/1,2,3,6
Race 3: 1 Mile 70 Yards – Early Speed, Rail and 8+ Bonus
3 – CHOWSER – most upside in the race – only YES and big drop – Paco
5 – ADIOS BUSTER – TLRSP# +4 in October – but track and class dropping with first Lasix
4 – BAD BOY BUTCH – left arrow that could push for the lead better late and faster early
2 – LINO’S FIRE – top TOTAL PACE but needs to improve by more than a length
Race 4: 6 Furlongs – Early Speed, Mostly Fair, 8+ Bump
10 – TAP YOU ARE IT – TLRSP# +3 and top 2nd race Parability vs all noes and a pair of maybes
2 – HERE’S TO THE BOYS – highest rated 1ster
8 – PIPERS SONG – 2nd highest 1ster
7 – LUCKY TICKET – 2nd best 2nd Race Parability – switches to Paco
$0.50 Trifecta Box: 2,7,8,10
Race 5: 7 ½ Furlongs Turf – 3 Races, 2 closers, 1 w2w – 1 win from the Rail, 2 from 4-7
4 – CAPTAIN CODY – (Best Bet) only YES horse with low level stakes 2nd race Parability
7 – READY SET – highest rated 1ster with a back bullet
5 – CHECKORSEE – 2nd rated 1ster
2 – VICKY ROYAL – biggest class dropper, track dropper and picks up Paco
Race 6: 6 Furlongs – Early Speed, Mostly Fair, 8+ Bump
5 – OAK BROOK LADY – most upside in the race and best SIM SP# – 3rd race bounce back
6 – CHATELOT – TLRSP# +4 in May TOTAL PACE of a length – Paco – 2/2 at the Distance
3 – PROJECT MAXIMUS – lone E on the lead with 1st Lasix and lone dropper
2 – DOC’S MIRACLE – 3 SP# increases – trainer winning at 39% at Delaware
Race 7: 1 1/8 Miles Turf – Stalkers, Mostly Fair, 4-7 Little Edge
5 – SOUPER CRUNCHY – TLRSP# +4 – but spike number – catches Paco winning at 41%
10 – RED SKY MORNING – track dropping with standout C ZONE
4 – TUG – longshot with +8 LS and +9 TOP TOTAL PACE – better EP/Fractions in last
9 – CELTIC PRINCE – most upside, class and track dropping
Race 8: 6 Furlongs – Early Speed, Mostly Fair, 8+ Bump
6 – CALLING ON HEAVEN – by Far the most upside – YES – biggest class and track drop
5 – U CROCS – 3rd race bounce back
1 – CRAZY MILES – better EP/Fractions and 2nd biggest class drop
3 – GRAN CORREDOR – tough call over the 2 – but class and track dropping
