It’s Humpday at Churchill Downs, and Rich is back looking for a rebound after a Steinbeck kind of Tuesday — the best-laid plans of mice and men went astray. Today brings a fresh nine-race card with a fast main track and firm going for the lone turf race. We’ll wipe yesterday’s slate clean, fire up the Smart Sheets and dig into speed, pace, race shape and value to see where the numbers can help us find an edge.
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Rich’s Churchill Downs Ranks
Race 1: 6 ½ Furlongs – Early Speed, Outside In – But only 7 Races – None from Rail
7 – FOUR DIMES – 2nd race upside – did lose to the 2 last out but the 2 is 0/11
2 – PROBLEM SOLVED – better 5 Ways with TLRSP#+ 3 and SIM SP# +8
5 – MY KING AIR – Jose has been winning everything
1 – HODL HARD – on the lead +7 ES with 3rd race bounce back
Race 2: 1 Mile – Early Speed, Rail and 8+ Best – 2/3 Fair, 4-7 Discount
3 – LAUGHNOWCRYLATER – SIM FAV and only with better EP/Fractions
4 – SUITED AND BOOTED – has the biggest in race edge +5 LS and Top TOTAL PACE
1 – CULPRIT – has back talent – finally healthy – 2 races in a row for the 1st time in a year
6 – FLETCHER BAY – 3SP# increases – strongest C ZONE– should be involved early
Race 3: 6 Furlongs – Stalkers, Inside Out
6 – LUCKY SHOT – if he can get on the lead – Lone E with +7 Top TOTAL PACE
2 – SOCIAL HOUR – most upside and tied for the biggest drop
1 – DOCTOR JEFF – consistent – here is Jose again – better Early and Late
8 – BANIDOSO – potential pacesetter with the top C ZONE
Race 4: 6 Furlongs – Stalkers, Inside Out
1 – PROCTOR PHANTOM – biggest class dropper with top SIM SP#
3 – HALFWAY JOKING – SIM FAV with 2nd strongest Par +
6 – TIGER’S LEGACY – TLRSP# +3 and best C ZONE by Far
7 – HESPER – tough call over the 8 – but won last big at CD and was 1st up like today
Race 5: 6 Furlongs – Stalkers, Inside Out
9 – SOUL OF THE NIGHT – 2nd race Parability well past par – Brad Cox horse
6 – DEVIOUS LADY – 2nd best 2nd race Parability – nice work between races
7 – BLAME TO FAME – top rated 1ster with a pair of back bullets
10 – TUMBLING – 2nd rated 1ster with a Back Bullet
$0.50 Trifecta Box: 6,7,9,10
$1 Exacta Box: 6,7,9,10
Race 6: 6 Furlongs – Stalkers, Inside Out
4 – JUST DO BELIEVE – lots of speed here – +5 LS edge – track riser
3 – TETIAROA – SIM FAV – better EP/Fractions and drops
2 – SPECIAL SAUCE – TLRSP# +3 – 2nd up could be better
1 – TEMPTING EVE – longshot that could be on the lead
$0.50 Pick 4: 2,3,4/3,4/5,9,10/2,3,6,7,9
Race 7: 1 Mile – Early Speed, Rail and 8+ Best – 2/3 Fair, 4-7 Discount
3 – GUT REACTION – 3.0 Firster with BGO and BB versus all noes and 1 other firster…
4 – BUFFALO SOLDIER – got to use the other 1ster vs all noes and no 2nd race Parabilities
7 – WHEN I GO – most upside so far and likely pacesetter
5 – MY BOY GARY – bumped in debut was decently bet – 2nd place horse came back to win
Race 8: 1 1/16 Miles – Stalkers, Mostly Fair with 4-7 Small Discount
10 – STELLENBOSCH – $1M Baffert Horse with some strong works prepping
9 – PAGODE – most upside – SIM FAV and Top SIM SP#
5 – PENALTY BOX – CD 2/1-1-0 with Top TOTAL PACE
2 – AMOR PATRIAE – could be on the lead – drops a little and fires 1st up
$3 Exacta Key Box: 10/1,2,5,9
Race 9: 5 ½ Furlongs Turf – Early Speed, Rail Decent, 2/3 Not So Good, 4-7 Dominant, 8+ Worst
3 – D BIGALOW – only YES horse = must have – better EP/Fractions and drops – TP +8
2 – STOIC SAGE – the other class dropper – is a price – best published work between races
6 – JUSTONE MORE THING – 2d race potential horses next – two works since
7 – TONYS KINGDOM – was the 6/5 fav at Prairie Meadows in debut
$2 Exacta Key Box: 3/2,6,7,9
