Nine races. A muddy track. And at Parx, that puts early speed and off-track form squarely under the microscope.

Terry and Rich tackle today’s nine-race card from two different directions. Terry brings traditional handicapping through recent form, class moves, speed figures, trainer and jockey statistics and proven off-track ability. Rich’s Ranks attack the card with Smart Sheets, including SIM Speed, Total Pace, C-ZONE, PAR+, speed edges, improvement patterns and Parx-specific race profiles.

One thing shows up repeatedly in today’s numbers: early speed. Seven of the nine race profiles favor early speed, with the inside-out pattern appearing throughout the sprint races.

Add a muddy surface, and identifying which horses can get forward — and which ones have already proven they can handle an off track — could be especially important.

Let’s get muddy.

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Race 1: 6½ Furlongs – Early Speed, Inside Out

Terry’s Picks

3 – Lex: 3rd as favorite last out; high % winning trainer wins 39% with beaten favorites; Trainer/Jockey combo in last 14 days (5 3-0-0).

4 – Bourbon Aficionado: Ran 2nd vs tougher in last race; Drops in class today; Best Dirt Speed is fastest among today’s starters (tie); Has a high % winning trainer and jockey.

1 – Cassation: Rail post is winning at 20% clip; Drops in class today; Strong trainer and jockey stats.

Longshot:

2 – Starlord: Finished 3rd vs tougher in last race; Drops in class today.

Alternates:

7 – Reelin N Dealin

5 – What It Tiz

Rich’s Ranks

3 – LEX – maybe too much early speed for the rest – most upside – Standout C ZONE

2 – STARLORD – better 5 ways and drops

1 – CASSATION – SIM FAV, Top SIM SP# and Total Pace on the rail

4 – BOURBON AFICIONADO – strong off track record 6/1-3-1

Rich’s $0.50 Pick 4: 3 / 3,5,6 / 3,7 / 1,2,4,6

Race 2: 1 Mile 70 Yards – Early Speed, Mostly Fair – Rail Bonus

Terry’s Picks

6 – Chuck’s Law: Ran 2nd vs similar in last race; Highest last race speed rating; Switches to a high % winning trainer and jockey.

3 – No Mor Stones: Drops in class today; Best Dirt Speed is fastest among today’s starters; Has a high % winning trainer and jockey.

5 – Hephepcutdownnets: Finished 3rd vs similar in last race; Early speed running style helps chances; Strong jockey stats.

Longshot:

4 – Final Joke: Drops in class today; Strong trainer and jockey stats.

Alternate:

7 – Centaur Central

Terry’s $.50 Pick 4: 3,6 / 3,4 / 7 / 1,2,3,4,5,6 – Cost $12.00

Rich’s Ranks

6 – CHUCK’S LAW – TLRSP#+4 – Sanchez and Pino

5 – HEPHEPCUTDOWNNETS – SIM FAV, Top SIM SP# and Top TOTAL PACE

3 – NO MOR STONES – Only Yes horse – on the Pace and Lone E – Most upside

8 – WILL’S MUSIC – too much late speed to ignore +10 LS

Rich’s $2 Exacta Key Box: 6 / 3,5,8

Race 3: 6 Furlongs – Early Speed, Inside Out

Terry’s Picks

4 – Telephone Line: Best Dirt Speed is fastest among today’s starters (tie); Blinkers added today; Has a high % winning trainer and jockey.

3 – Maddie’s Garden: Likes PARX Racing, finishing in the money in 43% of the races, winning 29% of the starts and distance will not be a problem as he has finished in the money in 50% of the races, winning 50% of the starts.

6 – Sunlit: Drops in class today; Early speed running style helps chances; Strong trainer and jockey stats.

Longshot:

2 – May Mischief: Early speed running style helps so the shorter distance is a plus; Has a high % winning trainer who wins 18% of the claiming races; Strong jockey stats.

Alternates:

1 – Mikey’s Song

5 – Rose of Sharon

Rich’s Ranks

3 – MADDIE’S GARDEN – Top TOTAL PACE – won lone trip on an off track

6 – SUNLIT – SIM FAV dropping – should be forward – Top PAR+

4 – TELEPHONE LINE – Sanchez and Pino – again – 3rd up – no wins in the last 10

5 – ROSE OF SHARON – seems to love an off track 8/2-2-1 – other 19/1-0-3

Race 4: 1⅛ Miles – 1 Closer and 1 W2W, Both 2-7

Terry’s Picks

7 – First Trumpet: Finished 3rd vs tougher in last race; Can improve while returning to a route; Has a high % winning jockey.

3 – Tavern Time: Drops in class today; trainer wins 25% of the races in the 2nd race off layoff; Best Dirt speed is faster than the Avg Winning Speed.

4 – Riley’s Rockstar: Highest last race speed rating; Drops in class today; trainer wins 18% of the races when going from a Sprint to Route.

Longshot:

1 – River’s Gamble: Finished in the money in 4 out of the last 5 races, running 2nd vs similar in last race; Can go the distance.

Alternates:

5 – Fully Committed

6 – Fluff the Pillow

Rich’s Ranks

3 – TAVERN TIME – Top TOTAL PACE – 5 Ways Better and Drops – 2nd up and won lone Off

7 – FIRST TRUMPET – maybe too much ES +10 – if the track is playing speed

4 – RILEY’S ROCKSTAR – highly consistent – YES hose that drops

6 – FLUFF THE PILLOW – tough call over the 1 – but Standout C ZONE

Rich’s $0.50 Pick 4: 3,7 / 1,2,4,6 / 3,11 / 5,7

Race 5: 7 Furlongs – Early Speed, Inside Out

Terry’s Picks

3 – Respighi: Been knocking at the door finishing in the money in the last 4 starts, 2nd in last race; Strong trainer and jockey stats.

4 – Wave Rider: Won last race at PARX Racing; Highest last race speed rating; Has a high % winning trainer.

1 – Party With Smarty: Finished 3rd vs similar in last race; Rail post is winning at 24% clip.

Longshot:

5 – Captain Oats: Finished in the money in 3 races out of the 4 career starts; Strong trainer and jockey stats.

Alternates:

6 – Cody Pass

2 – Au Some Warrior

Rich’s Ranks

4 – WAVE RIDER – TLRSP# +3 and TOP TOTAL PACE and drops – Most Upside

2 – AU SOME WARRIOR – should be on pace as SIM FAV and SIM SP#

1 – PARTY WITH SMARTY – should be better in 2nd up – Standout C ZONE

6 – CODY PASS – should also be forward – as much upside as any

Rich’s $3 Exacta Key Box: 4 / 1,2,3,6

Race 6: 6 Furlongs – Early Speed, Inside Out

Terry’s Picks

9 – Amazing Woo: Finished in the money in 6 out of the last 7 races, winning 1 race; Has a high % winning trainer and jockey.

3 – Young Squire: Likes PARX Racing, finishing in the money in 52% of the races, winning 24% of the starts and distance will not be a problem as he has finished in the money in 47% of the races, winning 26% of the starts.

10 – Little Lance: Won last race; Drops in class today; Has a high % winning trainer and jockey.

Longshot:

4 – Lord Winsalot: Finished 3rd vs similar in last race, winning the previous race; Strong trainer and jockey stats.

Alternates:

5 – Biagio

7 – Capital Conquest

Terry’s $.50 Pick 4: 3,4,9,10 / 5,7 / 8,9 / 3,8 – Cost $16.00

Rich’s Ranks

11 – ROMANTIC GAMBLE – TLRSP# +3 – better 2nd up? Loves an off track 5/12 career best

3 – YOUNG SQUIRE – could Pop in 2nd Up – win 2/5 on an off track – drops

4 – LORD WINSALOT – better ATB and will be coming late

1 – NICOLE’S KING – SIM FAV – Top PAR+

Rich’s $3 Exacta Key Box: 11 / 1,3,4,9

Race 7: 6½ Furlongs – Early Speed, Inside Out

Terry’s Picks

5 – Dr. Steve: Finished in the money in 10 out of the last 10 races, winning 5 races; Has a high % winning trainer and jockey.

7 – Winning Time: Drops in class today; Early speed running style helps chances; Good 4F workout (Sep-16); Strong trainer and jockey stats.

3 – Cultivate: Won last race; Strong trainer and jockey stats; Blinkers added today.

Longshot:

6 – Guitar Money: Won 2 races out of the last 3 starts; Has a high % winning trainer and jockey.

Alternates:

1 – Windsor Gold

4 – Big Boys Answer

Terry’s $2.00 Double: 5,7 / 8,9 – Cost $8.00

Terry’s Bets: $20 Win #5; $5 Exacta Box 5/7; $5 Exacta 5 / 3,6,7 – Cost $45.00

Terry’s Best Bet of the Day

#5 DR. STEVE

Rich’s Ranks

5 – DR. STEVE – TLRSP#+8 and Top TOTAL PACE of more than a length – 4/6 on an off track

7 – WINNING TIME – highly consistent performer – going to try to go W2W lone drop

4 – BIG BOYS ANSWER – chance to be better in the 2nd up

3 – CULTIVATE – Ness and Sanchez – won only Parx race with ease – Sanchez gets off the 5

Race 8: 6 Furlongs – Early Speed, Inside Out

Terry’s Picks

9 – More Than Grace: Won the last 6 starts; Has a high % winning trainer and jockey; Best Dirt Speed is fastest among today’s starters (tie).

8 – Divine Intentions: Finished in the money in 9 out of the last 10 races, winning 3 races; Drops in class today; Has a high % winning trainer and jockey.

5 – Mary Q: Finished 3rd in last race; Has a high % winning trainer and jockey.

Longshot:

7 – Shubagail: Good 5F workout (Sep-17); Has a high % winning trainer and jockey.

Alternate:

4 – Jump a Fox

Terry’s Bets: $20 Win #9; $5 Exacta Box 8/9; $5 Exacta 9 / 5,7,8 – Cost $45.00

Rich’s Ranks

9 – MORE THAN GRACE – TLRSP#+11 – SIM SP +8 and Top TOTAL PACE +14

5 – MARY Q – other YES horse with the 9 – lone class dropper

8 – DIVINE INTENTIONS – could be the pacesetter – 1st up questionable

3 – ROCK ME GENTLY – going to take a flyer – forward with Top C ZONE

Race 9: 6 Furlongs – Early Speed, Inside Out

Terry’s Picks

3 – Craving Carbs: Finished 3rd in last race; Early speed running style helps chances so the shorter distance will help; Strong trainer and jockey stats.

8 – Noulikeabook: Won 2 races in a row going for hat trick; Strong trainer and jockey stats.

5 – Briscoe County: Finished 3rd vs tougher in last race; Has a high % winning trainer and jockey.

Longshot:

10 – No Mo Muffins: Early speed running style helps chances so the shorter distance will help; Best Dirt Speed is fastest among today’s starters (tie); Has a high % winning trainer and jockey.

Alternate:

2 – Spooky Gal

Rich’s Ranks

8 – NOULIKEABOOK – 3 SP# increases TLRSP# +5 – career best, but not by much

5 – BRISCOE COUNTY – strong SIM FAV, SIM SP# and Top TOTAL PACE – 3rd up

3 – CRAVING CARBS – Sanchez and Pino – will push for the lead

10 – NO MO MUFFINS – tough call over a bunch of others – upside and strong average race

Rich’s $2 Exacta Key Box: 8 / 2,3,5,7,10

Where Terry and Rich Agree

There is quite a bit of agreement between the two approaches today, beginning with Lex in Race 1. Terry puts the 3 on top after finishing third as the favorite, while Rich also makes Lex his top choice with the most upside and a standout C-ZONE.

Race 2 is even more interesting. Terry and Rich both put Chuck’s Law on top, and both include Hephepcutdownnets and No Mor Stones prominently.

In Race 3, the same three horses appear in both sets of selections: Maddie’s Garden, Sunlit and Telephone Line. Rich gives the edge to Maddie’s Garden, who owns Top Total Pace and won his only previous start on an off track.

Race 4 gives us another strong crossover with Tavern Time, First Trumpet and Riley’s Rockstar all appearing in both sets of top selections.

Terry has Wave Rider second in Race 5, while Rich puts him on top with a TLRSP# +3, Top Total Pace, a class drop and the most upside.

Race 6 could offer more value. Terry’s longshot Lord Winsalot ranks third for Rich, while both also use Young Squire.

Then we get to one of the strongest agreements of the card.

Race 7 – Dr. Steve

Terry makes #5 Dr. Steve his Best Bet of the Day.

Rich puts Dr. Steve on top, too.

And there is plenty behind the opinion: TLRSP# +8, a Total Pace advantage of more than a length and a 4-for-6 record on an off track.

Both handicappers also have Winning Time, Cultivate and Big Boys Answer in their mix.

Race 8 might have an even bigger Smart Sheets advantage.

Terry puts More Than Grace on top after six consecutive wins.

Rich agrees — and the numbers are enormous:

TLRSP# +11. SIM Speed +8. Total Pace +14.

Finally, Race 9 gives us essentially the same four horses from both handicappers: Noulikeabook, Briscoe County, Craving Carbs and No Mo Muffins.

Rich gives the top spot to Noulikeabook, who enters looking for a third consecutive win.

Mud, Speed and Parx

This doesn’t look like a day to ignore the front of the race.

Early speed appears throughout the Parx profiles, and several of today’s strongest contenders either possess a pace advantage or have already shown an ability to perform over an off track.

Lex. Chuck’s Law. Maddie’s Garden. Tavern Time. Wave Rider. Dr. Steve. More Than Grace. Noulikeabook.

There is plenty of agreement between Terry and Rich — but there are also enough longshots and disagreements to make nine muddy races at Parx interesting.

Terry brings the traditional handicapping.

Rich brings the Smart Sheets.

Mother Nature brings the mud.

Let’s see who handles it.