Hong Kong racing is back in the spotlight as 22-1 Tom and Rich break down five competitive races at Sha Tin, featuring a mix of established winners, improving runners, early-speed threats and potential longshots.
Tom examines recent race performances, trips, class changes and running styles, while Rich focuses on speed figures, distance records, pace advantages and horses positioned to improve.
The two handicappers agree on several contenders, but their different approaches also uncover some interesting wagering opportunities.
Race 5 – CANMAKE TOKYO HANDICAP
1:30 AM ET
Tom’s Tips
12 – Bling Bling Genius
Broke from the 11th post last time, crossed over to the lead, and was caught in the final 100m. He set a slow pace. He has won from both inside and outside posts. He is again on the lead.
7 – Ghorgan
Was at the rear last time, straightened for home, and ran a good fifth. He has run faster races and may have a bit of form now, so he will get a good result. Moves from 1000m to try 1600m this time.
6 – Rosewood Fleetfoot
In good recent form, with a series of strong efforts. Post position three helps. He has been a middle-distance horse (1800m–2200m), but his speed rating and the drop in class suggest he will be highly competitive.
Rich’s Ranks
12 – Bling Bling Genius – Lone speed – distance 2/4 and 0/14 at any other.
10 – Gorgeous Victory – Hands down the most consistent best 1-mile times.
8 – Lucky Year – Yet to win – but has the fastest Sha Tin 1-mile time by a little.
5 – Mega Mastermind – Pressure horse – was faster last out – should get a good trip.
Race 6 – ELIZABETH ARDEN HANDICAP
2:00 AM ET
Tom’s Tips
4 – Beauty Award
With only two starts, he has run decent races. He ran second after his first start in Hong Kong, and that was an okay run, too. An okay draw is good enough to get the job done in this race.
1 – Lady’s Love
Won at this distance two times. He used the rail to great advantage, took over the lead at 200m, and just held on. Post position three, and Zac Purton is never a bad option.
11 – Super Love
He ran strongly last time, finishing second and losing by a nose. Last race was his strongest effort to date. He had been improving, with two fourths in the two races before. He needs cover for best results.
Rich’s Ranks
10 – Shotgun – Could be out front without much competition – control the pace.
1 – Lady’s Love – Consistent horse – Zac Purton – we’ll see.
7 – You Are Mine – First timer but cannot overlook reasonable barrier times.
2 – Call Me Sparkle – Maybe better in the second up – times fit.
Race 7 – LA ESTEPHE HANDICAP
2:35 AM ET
Tom’s Tips
1 – Perfectday
A proven runner at this distance; he has the ideal post position and a few wins. In his race, he was closed off and running better than seventh. I think he will bounce back with a strong finishing effort.
7 – Storm Mirror
He won his last two starts and improved in each race. He found a gap to win last time. He has performed well under pressure, and I think he has a good chance of winning three in a row. He is moving up in class from 4 to 3.
13 – Zhuang Yuan Glory
He has had two starts on the all-weather, and those runs were average at best, including his first two runs in Hong Kong. Now switching to the turf, he has only a maiden win. I think he has upside and is a good longshot to take a chance on.
Rich’s Ranks
5 – Chiu Chow Spirit – Top closer IMO and either of the last two races would do.
7 – Storm Mirror – Winner two in a row – speed, speed, speed.
6 – Precision Time – Most flexible horse in the field – can run multiple styles.
8 – Run Run Smart – Fastest 7-furlong times – speed duel with the 7 is the caution.
Race 8 – THE SA SA LADIES’ PURSE
3:05 AM ET
Tom’s Tips
2 – Numbers
He ran second to Romantic Warrior last time in a Group One race. He faced him again and finished seventh. He has speed from the gate and the right post position to make the other horses work hard to get the lead from him.
1 – Beauty Joy
Is the top horse on paper in the race. He has 58 starts in Hong Kong with nine wins, seven seconds, and nine thirds. He ran in a Group 2 last time, and it was not his best effort after winning the two races before. He has won at this level four times, but I think giving weight to my top choice, Numbers, gives Numbers the advantage.
7 – Speed Dragon
He ran a good third at Happy Valley last time and generally does better at that track. At this level, he has two starts, one win and one second. He moves up in class off his last race and drops weight from 131 to 119. At the lower weight, he had a winning effort in January of this year. Price horse.
Rich’s Ranks
1 – Beauty Joy – Should improve in the second up.
7 – Speed Dragon – Third up and winner 3/8 at the distance, 2/17 elsewhere.
3 – Sky Jewellery – Winner 6/10 – hard to argue vs. these – distance is the question.
9 – Le Zonda – Winner 2/5 at the distance – better second up.
Race 9 – NEUE HANDICAP
3:40 AM ET
Tom’s Tips
5 – Fit For Beauty
Lightly raced New Zealand import with one win in three starts. Trials have been only fair, and the Hong Kong notes suggest he may need racing experience. Check the odds, but he appears a future prospect.
6 – Superb Spirit
The most progressive horse in the field. He has never missed the trifecta in five Hong Kong starts, has recent ratings around 99–101, and was an unlucky third over this course and distance after being blocked until near the 100m mark. Drawn ideally in gate 6, he gets a perfect stalking trip. The move to 1400m looks positive rather than a concern.
2 – Celestial Hero
Finally broke through over 1400m last start after covering extra ground throughout. It was one of his most recent races this year. Zac Purton stays aboard. Draw 9 is workable, and recent form is superior to most rivals.
Rich’s Ranks
10 – Papaya Brose – Post not the best – but improved a lot in only other second-up race.
2 – Celestial Hero – Zac Purton and is coming off a win in his first at the distance.
6 – Superb Spirit – Some of the best times at the distance – better in race two off the bench.
9 – Fastoso – Maybe first-up potential – 0/2 at the distance.
Where Tom and Rich Agree
Despite their different handicapping approaches, several horses appear on both lists:
- Race 5: #12 Bling Bling Genius – Both see the early-speed advantage.
- Race 6: #1 Lady’s Love – Proven distance form and Zac Purton.
- Race 7: #7 Storm Mirror – Two straight wins and strong recent speed.
- Race 8: #1 Beauty Joy and #7 Speed Dragon – Both handicappers respect their credentials, although they rank them differently.
- Race 9: #2 Celestial Hero and #6 Superb Spirit – Both see strong recent form and competitive performances at the distance.
Final Thoughts
Five races, two different approaches and plenty of opportunities to find value.
Tom’s international racing experience and Rich’s speed-and-pace analysis provide two perspectives on the Sha Tin card. Their agreements are worth examining, but their disagreements may be just as revealing when searching for overlooked contenders.
Follow Horse Racing Today for Foreign Friday, Tom’s Tips, Rich’s Ranks and international horse racing analysis throughout the year.
