Horse Racing Picks, Analysis, Handicapping and Tips
Terry and Rich discuss…
Horse Racing Picks
Gulfstream Park Full Card Picks
Hot Dog and Prime Rib Pick 4s
Guaranteed Tip Sheet Free Track: PARX
Gulfstream Park Horse Racing Tips and Commentary
Terry “Hollywood” Hay’s Handicapping
Race 1
5 – Reservenotattained – Won two races in a row at Gulfstream Park leading all the way and now shortens up – He has the highest last race speed rating, and his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters -The trainer wins 28% trainer: 1st after a claim and the Jockey in the last 7 days has this record (23 6-3-7).
3 – Lusitano- Ran 2nd vs similar in last race – He has a High % winning trainer.
4 – Strategic Vision– Finished in the money in the last four races, finishing 2nd in last race. Switches to high % winning jockey Paco Lopez.
1 – Allegedly Perfect– The trainer wins 33% 1st race after a claim – Early speed running style helps chances.
Alternate:
7 – Hard Belle
2 – Imperial King
Race 2
1 – Fearless Girl – Finished 3rd vs similar in last race earning the highest last race speed rating – Rail post is winning at 19% clip.
6 – Calidad Likes being the bridesmaid finishing second four times in the last five races – Drops in class today – The trainer wins 24% when bringing a Beaten favorite back to race – Best Dirt Speed is fastest among today’s starters.
4 – Magna Colors – Drops in class today.
5 – Advanced Technolog –. Chance to improve while trying Dirt – Drops in class today – The trainer wins 50% of the races when going from AW to Dirt
Alternate:
2 – Five K Kitten
3 – Sangfroid
Race 3
7 – Veil – Finished 3rd vs tougher in last race – Highest last race speed rating – Drops in class today – Best AW speed is fastest among today’s starters and has high % winning Jockey Paco Lopez.
2 – Afficionado – Went to France to race and now is back to Gulfstream Park where his last win came at – Jockey Irad Ortiz, JR. in the last 7 days has this record (23 6-3-7).
1 – Noble Intentions – Ran a disappointing 6th in her last race after being bumped & steading early Rail post is winning at 18% clip – Drops in class today – Trainer/Jockey combo in the last 14 days has this record (4 2-0-1).
3 – My Masterpiece- Finished 3rd vs tougher in last race -10Dec’21 GP 4f ft :47« B 3/42.
Alternate:
5 – Hy Dollface
6 – Lawn Dart
Race 4
5 – Al Qahira- Ran 2nd vs similar in last race – Trainer/Jockey combo in the last 14 days has this record (8 2-1-0) – Lasix added
8 – Queen Macha – Finished 3rd vs similar (on AW) in last race – Lasix added – Trainer/Jockey combo in the last 7 days has this record (23 6-3-7).
1 – Estate – Finished 3rd vs similar in last race at 7-1/2 furlongs and now stretches out to a 1-1/16 which could help – She has the highest last race speed rating – The trainer wins 18% of the races when using 2nd time Lasix – Best Turf Speed is fastest among today’s starters.
6 – Point Pleasant – The trainer is winning at a 26% Clip – Jockey Tyler Gaffalione is in the irons.
Alternate:
9 – Empress Ellie
3 – Cumulonimbus
Race 5
7 – Freezer Burn – Won last race at Gulfstream Park – Has the highest last race speed rating – The trainer wins 33% with Claim repeater.
1 – Capturini – Won two of the last four races at Gulfstream Park – Drops in class today – She has high % winning Jockey Luis Saez.
4 – Future Flay– Won last race at Gulfstream Park – Her early speed running style helps her chances.
3 – Pretzel – Best Dirt Speed is fastest among today’s starters – Likes Gulfstream Park finishing in the money 50% of the time and the distance 77% of the time
Alternate:
6 – Charlotte the Brit
5 – Day’s Humor
Race 6
7 – Serenade a Kitten – Drops in class today and her best AW speed is fastest among today’s starters.
1 – Destinique – Finished 3rd vs similar in last race earning the highest last race speed rating – The trainer wins 22% when bringing a Beaten favorite back to race.
4 – Current Situation – Had a good workout and then ran a disappointing race??? Has a high % winning Jockey.
3 – Midnight Bella – Has finished in the money 47% of the time during her career, winning 21% of the races – The distant will not present any obstacle.
Alternate:
5 – Money Factor
2 – Fantastic Kingdom
Race 7
3 – Shekky Shebaz Likes to lead but has not quite held on at 5-1/2 furlongs and now cuts back to 5-furlongs – drops in class today – The trainer wins 25% of the time when bringing a beaten favorite back to race – He has the highest speed figure at today’s distance and his best turf speed is fastest among today’s starters – Jockey in the last 7 days has this record (23 6-3-7).
5 – Extravagant Kid – Ran 2nd vs tougher in last race receiving the highest last race speed rating – Drops in class today -The trainer wins 17% of the sprints his horse is entered in – in the last 14 days has this record (8 3-1-1).
1 – Like What I See – Won his last race at Gulfstream Park and the trainer wins 21% when bringing a winner back to race.
6 – Kasim – Finished in the money in the last two races, winning one of them – The trainer wins 33% 1st race after claiming a horse.
Alternate:
2 – Embolden
8 – Harry’s Ontheloose
Race 8
5 – Trappezoid – Finished 3rd vs similar in last race – He has the highest speed figure at today’s distance.
1 – Brasstown – Won last race at Gulfstream Park and earned the highest last race speed rating – His dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters
2 – Hero Tiger – Ran 2nd vs similar in last race – The trainer wins 23% when bringing a beaten favorite back to race
6 – The Mighty Judge – The trainer wins 25% of the races when going from AW to Dirt.
Alternate:
4 – Blessed Journey
Race 9
3 – Brit’s Candyman- Finished 3rd vs similar (on Dirt) in only start – Has a high % winning trainer and Jockey – Breeding suggests he will like the grass as the Dam has 3 winners from 5 starters and 2 Turf winners – Well bet in debut.
7 – Bahamian Captain – Ran 3rd in his maiden race – Highest last race speed rating – Switches to a high % winning jockey – Breeding suggests he will like the grass – Lasix added.
1 – Sunset Provision Finished 3rd vs similar (on AW) in only start – Has a bullet workout on 18Jan GP 4f ft :47.1 B 1/9
9 – Strong Again– May improve while returning to Turf – The trainer wins 18% 2nd time Lasix- May improve with Lasix added.
Alternate:
8 – Wootdareitis
Rich’s Ranks
Race 1 – 5 ½ Furlongs Dirt: 14 races, 12 won by speed, 7 w2w – PP: 4-7 bias, 2/3 > 1, 8+ no Ws
5 – Reservenotattained – top EP/LP Combo, won last two big, better fractions despite adding ½ furlong, ITM 13/13 @ GP, LRSP>PAR
3 – Lusitano – Tie Top Pedigree, 2nd to top pick in last, better in 2nd off bench, maintenance work since, get L Saez who rode 2x before win and 4th.
7 – Hard Belle – usually not a fan of track upgrade, but got beat by Penn National shipper on Pegasus day, good work since last start, switching from GP aw to dirt, only drop in the field 34-28
1 – Allegedly Perfect – 34% off the claim for Tr: Carlos David, Fastest 1/4 Fraction LAST 10, Tie Top Pedigree
Race 2 – 7 Furlongs Dirt: 24 races, 18 won by speed, 7 w2w -PP: Rail and 8+ bias, 2/3>4-7
6 – Calidad – 3rd after a layoff, BTN FAV – Antoni Sano rebounds 25%, Top Pedigree, Denzel
1 – Fearless Girl – Another Denzel turning right around from Jan 23rd, 2 Fastest Opening 1/4 Fractions, TPLRSP#, improve in R2 off bench
4 – Magna Colors – weight break, Fastest 1/4 Fractions, biggest DROP 43-21
3 – Sangfroid – changed on the fly
Race 3 – 5 ½ Furlongs AW: 30 races, 21 won by speed, 8 w2w -PP: Inside 3 and 8+
2 – Afficionado – coming back from France on Jan 24, sometimes need 1, AW is OK, gets Irad
7 – Veil – top LRSP with small DROP 24-22, should be same/maybe slightly better in race 2 after a layoff
4 – Alizee – 3rd after a layoff, best of last pair of 3 race cycles, Top Pedigree
5 – Hy Dollface – decent works getting ready, first on AW, turf races not so good, Fastest 1/4 Fractions
Race 4 – 1 1/16 Miles Turf: 50 races, 32 won by speed, 14 w2w -PP: small inside to outside bias
5 – Al Qahira – is a ½ length from being undefeated in 2, but yet to win, 1st Lasix, well bet in last
8 – Queen Macha – top EP/LP combo, raced well in aw and turf, 1st Lasix, gets Irad
1 – Estate – TLRSP# on first on Turf, bullet work since, Top Pedigree, LRSP>PAR
6 – Point Pleasant – best of the 1st time starters, strong works getting ready, 21 F works since December 27th, should be fit, J/T combo Tyler Gaff/C Clement winners 5/12
3 – Cumulonimbus – longshot, LRSP>PAR on fist on turf, extra distance could help
Race 5 –5 ½ Furlongs Dirt: 14 races, 12 won by speed, 7 w2w – PP: 4-7 bias, 2/3 > 1, 8+ no Ws
1 – Capturini – down 2 classes, Tr: jose D’Angelo win 8/20, better 2f fractions last out, 1 of 2 ws on rail
7 – Freezer Burn – won last by 5 in EX win, Tie Top Pedigree, 20 off or less w STP, LRSP>PAR, trainer Victor Barboza, Jr. 33% claim repeater, Top EP/LP combo
4 – Future Flay – 3SP# Increases, all or nothing 6(2-0-0), won last, claimed, tr: Amador Snachez w 9/45
3 – Pretzel – well bet in last, much improved 2f/4f #s, better in 2nd off the bench, ITM 7/9 @ Distance, 2 Fastest Opening 1/4 Fractions – Ashley Mailloux owner?
Race 6 – 1 Mile 70 yards AW: 68 races, 39 Stks/Clsrs, 7 w2w -PP: Inside out Bias 1-3> 4-7>8+
1 – Destinique – 3rd off the bench, ITM GP 2(1-0-1), Distance W/P/S in 3, TLRSP#, 4SP# Increases, Fastest 1/4 Fractions
5 – Money Factor – bullet work on Jan 28 after running improved fractions in last, 2 Fastest Opening 1/4 Fractions, Top LP#s by a wide margin, look out if she puts the two together
4 – Current Situation – also 3rd off the bench, Top Pedigree, TOP EP#s, just needs to run back 1 race
7 – Serenade a Kitten – Biggest DROP 61-31, 2 Fastest Opening 1/4 Fractions,
Race 7 – 5 Furlongs Turf: 24 Races, 15 won by speed, 11 w2w -PP: 1<2/3>4-7<8+
3 – Shekky Shebaz – BTN FAV, Tr: C Clement 25% rebound, Top EP #s, usually runs fresh, good works
5 – Extravagant Kid – ITM 9/12 @ GP, better 2nd off bench, 2 strong works since last, 3SP# Increases,
6 – Kasim – 1st off the claim, 34% Tr: Carlos David, 6(2-3-0) @ GP, Fastest 1/4 Fractions,
8 – Harrys Ontheloose – 2 Fastest Opening 1/4 Fractions, should be near the lead, 3rd Off the Layoff
Race 8 – 1 Mile Dirt (1 turn): 47 races, 37 won by speed, 16 w2w -PP: Outside in bias
1 – Brasstown – TPRLSP#, much better fractions last out, LRSP>PAR, 2 Fastest Opening 1/4 Fractions, 2 lengths win in last – strong work since
2 – Hero Tiger – ITM 9/13 @ GP, Fastest 1/4 Fractions, BTN FAV, Tr: Juan Avila rebounds at 24%, better fractions finishing behind top pick, LRSP>PAR
5 – Trappezoid – finished behind top 2 in last, LRSP>PAR
7 – Sir Aggravator – won last with big 2f/4f improvement, 12f of works since last, should be fit
Race 9 – 5 Furlongs Turf: 24 Races, 15 won by speed, 11 w2w -PP: 1<2/3>4-7<8+
1 – Sunset Provision – bullet work on Jan 18, ran well on aw in debut, Fastest 1/4 Fractions, LRSP>PAR
7 – Bahamian Captain – LRSP>PAR, similar race to SUNSET PROVISION, Top LP#s by far, 1st Lasix
3 – Brits Candyman – well bet in debut, should be better in race #2
8 – Wootdareitis – 2nd best EP#s, 1st Lasix, well bet in last race, two works since last race
