Aqueduct Horse Racing Tips, Commentary, Analysis and Suggested Wagers
Guaranteed Tip Sheet Free Track: Lone Star Park – https://www.guaranteedtipsheet.com/index.aspx?afid=hrt
Free Aqueduct Picks
Terry Hollywood Hay’s Picks:
Aqueduct – 4-17 -2025
Race 1 – Female
3 – Kyle’s Mom – She finished 3rd in only start at Aqueduct, she has a high % winning trainer who wins 22% of the races when taking a horse from a sprint to a route and she has a high % winning jockey.
4 – Looking for Ginny – She finished 3rd vs tougher in her last race, drops in class today, her best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters and she has a high % winning jockey.
6 – Lumenique – She drops in class today, she has a high % winning trainer who wins 26% of the maiden claiming races he has a horse running in and she has a high % winning jockey.
Longshot:
1 – Aerialist – She can improve in 2nd start since layoff and she has a high % winning jockey.
Alternate:
2 – Exotic Cat
Race 2 – Female
6 – Shirl’s Delight – She ran 2nd vs similar in her last race, her best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters and she has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
1 – Donor Advised – She ran 2nd vs similar in her only start, the rail post is winning at a 22% clip and she has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
3 – That’s Funny – She finished 3rd vs similar in her last race, the longer distance offers hope for improvement and she has a high % winning trainer.
Longshot:
5 – Stand the Rain – She has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Alternate:
2 – Luckforyou
4 – Easily Sidetracked
$.50 Pick 4: 1,3,5,6/3,5/1A,2,4,5/3,5,7 – Cost $48.00
Race 3
5 – Houlton – He finished 3rd vs tougher in his last race, drops in class today and he has a high % winning jockey.
3 – Sorority Prank – He has a high % winning trainer who wins 18% of the claiming races he has a horse running in and he has a high % winning jockey.
1 – Broderick – He won last his race at Aqueduct and he likes the distance.
Longshot:
6 – Incantation – He has shown he can win at Aqueduct and he likes the distance.
Alternate:
4 – Brewing
Race 4–
2 – Neuschwanstein – He won last his race at Aqueduct and he switches to a high % winning trainer and he has a high % winning jockey.
4 – Tetsu – He drops in class today and he has a high % winning trainer who wins 26% of the claiming races he has a horse competing in.
5 – Abadin – He drops in class today, he has the highest speed figure at today’s distance and he has a high % winning trainer.
Longshot:
1A – Brew Pub – He finished 3rd vs tougher in his last race, drops in class today, his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters, he has a high % winning trainer and he has a high % winning jockey.
Alternate:
6 – J J’s Joker
Race 5
3 – Mariachi – He likes PARX Racing, finishing in the money in 80% of the races, winning 40% of the starts, and distance will not be a problem as he has finished in the money in 88% of the races, winning 50% of the starts.
5 – Spun and Won – He won last his race at Aqueduct and he has a high % winning trainer who wins 26% of the maiden claiming races he has a horse running in.
7 – Gun It – He drops in class today, his early speed running style helps chances so the shorter distance can help, he switches to a high % winning jockey and Blinkers are added today.
Longshot:
2 – Cold as Hell – He finished 3rd vs similar in his last race and his early speed running style helps his chances.
$.50 Pick 4: #2,3,5,7/5,6/1A,5/1,3,5,6,7,8 – Cost $48.00
Race 6
6 – Bold Endeavor – He brushed the gate in his last start which effected his race run but had won the two previous races, drops in class today and he has a high % winning trainer and he switches to a high % winning jockey.
5 – Margin of Air – He finished 3rd vs tougher in his last race and he has a high % winning trainer and he switches to a high % winning jockey.
2 – Bossmakinbossmoves – He won last his race at Aqueduct and can handle the distance.
Longshot:
3 – Lost in Rome – He drops in class today and he has a high % winning jockey.
Race 7
1A – Leading Contender – He finished in the money in eight races out of the last nine starts, winning two races, his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters (tie) and he has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
5 – Treaty Obligation – He likes PARX Racing, finishing in the money in 78% of the races, winning 22% of the starts, and distance will not be a problem as he has finished in the money in 83% of the races, winning 50% of the starts.
3 – Ignite the Light – He won last his race at Aqueduct and he has a high % winning trainer.
Longshot:
4 – Reddington – He finished 3rd in his last race and he has a high % winning trainer.
Alternate:
1 – Reasoned Analysis
Bet: $40.00 Win: 1A – $5.00 Exacta: 3,4,5/1A – $15.00 Exacta: 1A/3,4,5
Race 8
6 – King of the Castle – He finished 2nd in his last, he switches to a high % winning trainer who wins 42% of the races in the 1st race after claiming a horse and he switches to a high % winning jockey.
1 – Gorzo – He finished 3rd in his last race and he has a high % winning trainer who wins 25% of the races in the 2nd route race a horse runs in.
7 – Big Ego – He finished in the money in two races out of his last three starts, his early speed running style helps his chances and he has a high % winning trainer.
Longshot:
5 – Fines Creek – He finished 3rd in his last race and he has a high % winning trainer.
Alternate:
8 – Vesuvio
3 – Magni
Best Bet of the Day at Aqueduct Racing – 7th Race #1A – Leading Contender
Rich’s Picks:
Race 1: 1 Mile – Bias: Early Speed, 23% w2w – PP: Outside In
3 – KYLE’S MOM – 2nd career start improvement could be enough
4 – LOOKING FOR GINNY – drops in class – Better EP and Fractions
1 – AERIALIST – maybe too much ES advantage – might forget to stop this time?
6 – LUMENIQUE – debut and first up races have been the best – 1st up here – drops, but the works are dull
Race 2: 1 1/8 Miles – Bias: Early Speed, 38% w2w – PP: Rail Bonus, 2/3 Fair, 4-7 Discount, 8+ Fair
1 – DONOR ADVISED – TLRSP# +3 in debut – 2nd race improvement – borderline stakes
6 – SHIRL’S DELIGHT – has a PAR race – along with the 1- only class dropper
4 – EASILY SIDETRACKED – SIM Says huge overlay – got to take at 30-1 odds
2 – LUCKFORYOU – lone E potential and could be on the lead here
Race 3: 1 Mile – Bias: Early Speed, 23% w2w – PP: Outside In
5 – HOULTON – TLRSP# +6 – only with a PAR race – all of the others are no
1 – BRODERICK – better ATB and fractions – re-run last and could win
3 – SORORITY PRANK – pacesetter – ITM 7/8 at the distance
6 – INCANTATION – best chance if he gets forward – good chance in a short field big overlay
Race 4: 7 Furlongs – Bias: Early Speed, 35% w2w – PP: Rail Bonus, 2/3 Discount, 4-7 Fair, 8+ Bonus
4 – TETSU – should be better in 2nd up and wins when he is close early
2 – NEUSCHWANSTEIN – highly consistent performer that tends to pair top effort
1A – BREW PUB/ 1 – RETURN THE RING – either entry has the class to win – but the distance has been tough for both
5 – ABADIN – good chance to be the leader – last race better than the finish with quicker early fractions
Race 5: 6 Furlongs – Bias: Early Speed, 43% w2w – PP: Outside In – 8+ Bonus – but Mostly Fair
3 – MARIACHI – TLRSP# +3 – Top LP 1 ½ Lengths and Top TOTAL PACE almost 2 lengths
5 – SPUN AND WON – better EP and early FRACTIONS in last
2 – COLD AS HELL – pacesetter with a maintenance work for more stamina today
7 – GUN IT – he’s pushed and faded with Manny Franco riding – cutting back in distance helps
Race 6: 1 1/8 Miles – Bias: Early Speed, 38% w2w – PP: Rail Bonus, 2/3 Fair, 4-7 Discount, 8+ Fair
5 – MARGIN OF AIR – potential pacesetter EP type – better in 2nd up and a pair of maintenance works
6 – BOLD ENDEAVOR – SIM FAV – drops in class – right distance 6/3-0-1 – 7 wins in 42 at others
2 – BOSSMAKINBOSSMOVES – better early fractions – third up
3 – LOST IN ROME – better fractions at 1m versus 7f
Race 7: 1 Mile – Bias: Early Speed, 23% w2w – PP: Outside In
7 – MAGNOLIA MIDNIGHT – Lone E potential and has a good chance to be on the lead
1 – REASONED ANALYSIS/1A – LEADING CONTENDER – either entry has the chance to win
3 – IGNITE THE LIGHT – classic 3rd start in a row for the first time – finally healthy quarter million horse
5 – TREATY OBLIGATION – 4 solid works prepping for first since mid-Feb – Distance 6/3-0-2
Race 8: 1 Mile – Bias: Early Speed, 23% w2w – PP: Outside In
6 – KING OF THE CASTLE – TLRSP#+14 and Top TOTAL PACE of nearly 2 lengths
3 – MAGNI – only pure MSW dropper and you cannot pass on them
7 – BIG EGO – aside from the 6 – the only other with a par race
9 – BREAK THE FALL – tough call over the 5 – more upside in the numbers
