Aqueduct Horse Racing Tips, Commentary, Analysis and Suggested Wagers
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Free Aqueduct Racing Picks
Terry Hollywood Hay’s Picks:
Aqueduct – 11-14-2024
Race 1
3 – Tapwrits Temper – He drops in class today, his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters and has a high % winning jockey.
9 – Well Suited – He drops in class today and he has a high % winning trainer who wins 30% of the races when taking a horse from a maiden to a maiden claiming race.
7 – Vamonos Vamonos – He has a high % winning trainer and a good workout at 4f Nov 10th.
Longshot:
2 – Real Eleve – He drops in class today and he has a high % winning trainer who wins 32% of the races in a horse’s 2nd career race.
Alternate:
8 – Thunder Princess
4 – Papa’s Nico Boy
Race 2-Female
7 – Backstretch Rose – She finished 3rd in her last race, she has the highest last race speed rating (tie) and she has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
5 – Enigmatic – She is one for one at Aqueduct, she has a high % winning trainer and jockey and a good 4F workout on Nov-07.
3 – Elliptic – She won her last race and she has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Longshot:
1 – Bobby Jean – She finished 3rd in her last race, she has the highest speed figure at today’s distance, her best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters and she has a good 4F workout on Nov-05.
Alternate:
6 – La Vita Sofia
8 – Roman Goddess
Bet: $1.00 Exacta Box: #1,3,5,7
$.50 Pick 4: #1,3,5,7/7,8/3,4,5/1,2,7,8 – Cost $48.00
Race 3
8 – Smile Mon – He has won two races in a row and now goes for a hat trick and he has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
7 – Winnin’onweekends – He finished in the money in the last five races, winning three of the starts and he has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
2 – Skylander – He won his last race at Aqueduct and has a high % winning trainer who wins 22% of the races in the 1st after claiming a horse.
Longshot:
5 – Kahala – He finished 3rd in his last race and has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Alternate:
3 – Allaboutthemoney
Bet: $16.00 Win $26.00 Place: #8 – $4.00 DD: 8/3,4,5,9
Bet: $10.00 Exacta: 8/2,5,7
Race 4-Female
4 – Weighted Average – She finished 3rd vs similar in her last start and she has a high % winning trainer who wins 29% of the races the 2nd time Lasix he uses with a horse and she switches to a high % winning jockey.
5 – Steel Lute – She ran 2nd vs similar in her last race, she has the highest speed figure at today’s distance and has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
3 – African Waters – She finished 2nd in her last two starts and has a high % winning jockey.
Longshot:
9 – Akayla – She finished in the money in two of her last three races and he has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Alternate:
8 – Mendee
Race 5-Female
1 – Olatz – She is a first-time starter whose breeding suggests she will like the grass, the rail post is winning at a 24% clip and she has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
2 – Acousticat – She ran 2nd vs similar in her only start, losing by a neck and she has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
7 – Good Long Cry – She ran 2nd vs similar in last race, best turf speed is fastest among today’s starters and has a high % winning jockey.
Longshot:
8 – Chelsey’s Choice – She finished 3rd vs similar in her last start and has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Alternate:
5 – Green Jobs
$.50 Pick 4: #1,2,7,8/1,3,4,6/9,11/3,6,7– Cost $48.00
Race 6
4 – Mason Mania – He won his last race at Aqueduct and has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
6 – Legal Deal – He has a high % winning trainer who wins 23% of the races in the 1st race after claiming a horse, his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters and has a high % winning jockey.
3 – Montebello – He finished 3rd vs similar in his last start as the favorite but has a high % winning trainer who wins 23% of the races when bringing a beaten favorite back to race again, he switches to a high % winning jockey and a good 4F workout on Nov-11.
Longshot:
1 – Mo Rewards – He has won two races out of the last three starts, and he has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Alternate:
7 – Giroovin
Race 7-Female
11 – Reflexivity – She has won two races out of three starts at Aqueduct, her best turf speed is fastest among today’s starters and she has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
9 – Marco T. – She ran 2nd in her last start as the favorite but has a high % winning trainer who wins 26% of the races when bringing a beaten favorite back to race again, she has the highest speed figure at today’s distance, she has a high % winning jockey.
8 – Striker Has Dial – She finished in the money in the four races out of six career starts, winning one of the races and she has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Longshot:
6 – Wudhooh – She won her last race at Aqueduct and has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Alternate:
10 – Lisa’s Vision
Race 8
3 – High Heat – He finished 3rd vs similar in his last race and he has high % winning trainer Wayne Potts and high % winning jockey Jose Ortiz.
6 – Winter’s Ghost – He drops in class today and he has a high % winning trainer who wins 26% of the races when taking a horse down 2+ classes and he has a high % winning jockey.
7 – Nolo Contesto – He drops in class today, his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters (tie) and he has a high % winning trainer.
Longshot:
10 – Classic Mark – He ran 2nd vs similar in his last race, he has the highest last race speed rating and he has a high % winning jockey.
Alternate:
4 – Prince James
9 – Union Lights
Best Bet of the Day at Aqueduct – 3rd Race – #8 – Smile Mon
Rich’s Picks:
Race 1: 6 Furlongs – Bias: Early Speed, 35% w2w – PP: Outside In – Rail Tough Spot
7 – VAMONOS VAMONOS – MSW dropper off a rest, debut was best – maybe one of those that run best off the sidelines?
3 – TAPWRITS TEMPER – only horse that has a par race on the resume
8 – THUNDER PRINCESS – MSW dropper – has flashed some ES
6 – PAPA PAULIE P – showed some ES in debut, a couple of works between, best works between
Race 2: 1 Mile – Bias: Early Speed, 31% w2w – PP: Mostly Fair, 2/3 and 8+ Small Discount
5 – ENIGMATIC – one race at AQ – won by 9 ¾ lengths – Irad riding for the fist time
7 – BACKSTRETCH ROSE – closer, solid at AQ 4/0-1-3, ITM 6/7 at the distance
8 – ROMAN GODDESS – top TOTAL PACE+5, – ITM 11/13 at AQ
1 – BOBBY JEAN – tough call over the 3, but has more back class
Race 3: 1 Mile – Bias: Early Speed, 31% w2w – PP: Mostly Fair, 2/3 and 8+ Small Discount
7 – WINNIN’ONWEEKENDS – TLRSP#+9 – Blistering LP at times and drops in class
4 – FOR SOME REASON – maybe too much early speed for these – won with ease the last time he ran close to this level
2 – SKYLANDER – SIM FAV and highly consistent performer – much faster fractions last out
8 – SMILE MON – crushed it two in a row and a lot faster last out – peak race?
Race 4: 1 1/16 Miles Outer Turf – Bias: Stalkers, 18% w2w – PP: Rail Bonus and Inside Out
5 – STEEL LUTE – TLRSP#+9 – first Lasix could help
3 – AFRICAN WATERS – lone E and could be dangerous is she can get forwards – maybe a finally healthy horse as she makes the 2nd start in a row for the first time in career
8 – MENDEE – 3rd up and better ATB in last – will be forward too
4 – WEIGHTED AVERAGE – has shown the most late speed and it’s not really close
Race 5: 1 1/16 Miles Turf – Bias: Stalkers, 15% w2w – PP: Strong Rail, 2/3 Fair, 4+ Similar Discount
2 – ACOUSTICAT – 2nd race improvement would be more than enough – Chris P angle
1 – OLATZ – first timer 2.5/3 stars – would like to see better works
7 – GOOD LONG CRY – lone horse with a Par Race – Irad rides – 4 seconds in a row – 2 works between races
12 – PIONUS – hard call over the 8 – but more upside in just 2nd career start and higher odds
Race 6: 1 Mile – Bias: Early Speed, 31% w2w – PP: Mostly Fair, 2/3 and 8+ Small Discount
3 – MONTEBELLO – pacesetter with top TOTAL PACE +5 – Irad upgrade – SIM FAV
7 – GIROOVIN – lowest level in last 10 and highly consistent performer where average race is good enough to win
6 – LEGAL DEAL – if you know anything about NY racing – Linda Rice 38% claim and drop
1 – MO REWARDS – TLRSP#+4 -not the biggest fan of track and class risers but has hit the board at AQ 6/1-0-2
Race 7: 6 Furlongs Outer Turf – Bias: Early Speed, 36% w2w – PP: Rail Bonus, 2/3 Fair, 4-7 Discount, 8+ Small Discount
11 – REFLEXIVITY – should be forward – better mid pace and fractions last out
9 – MARCO T. – much faster fractions last out with better pace middle out
4 – COLLABORATION – Irad dropping from a NGSTK where she finished 2nd
10 – LISA’S VISION – very likely to pop in 2nd up
Race 8: 7 Furlongs – Bias: Early Speed, 30% w2w – PP: Outside In
10 – CLASSIC MARK – TLRSP#+3 – weight break
3 – HIGH HEAT – Irad again, consistent performer
4 – PRINCE JAMES – last win was following some rest – like today
6 – WINTER’S GHOST – class dropper with a bullet work between starts
