Aqueduct Horse Racing Tips, Commentary, Analysis and Suggested Wagers
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Free Aqueduct Racing Picks
Terry Hollywood Hay’s Picks:
Aqueduct – 11-21-2024
Race 1-Female
5 – Sharp Smile – She finished 2nd vs similar in her last race and she has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
3 – Kiss Me Slow – She has a high % winning trainer who wins 29% of the races in the 1st race at a route a horse has, she has the highest last race speed rating, has a high % winning jockey and a good 4F workout on Nov-16.
4 – Keepthedreamalive – She is a first-time starter whose Dam has 1 winner from 1 starter, she has a high % winning trainer and jockey and a good 4F workout (Nov-16).
Longshot:
1A – Vanilla Sundae – She has a high % winning trainer and jockey
Alternate:
2B – She’s Fascinating
Race 2
4 – Black Rain – He finished 3rd vs similar in his last race and he has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
3 – Yo Daddy – His best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters and he has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
6 – California Sober – He was beaten only 1-1/2 lengths vs similar (on Turf) in his last start, may improve while returning to dirt and has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Longshot:
5 – Pirate – He has a high % winning trainer who wins 21% of the Allowance races he has a horse competing in and he has a high % winning jockey.
Alternate:
2 – More Vino
Bet: $6.00 Exacta Box: #3/4
$.50 Pick 4: #3,4/1,3,6,7/2,4,7/1,6,8,10– Cost $48.00
Race 3-Female
3 – First Class Cat – She ran 2nd in her last start as the favorite but has a high % winning trainer who wins 23% of the races when bringing a beaten favorite back to race again, she has the highest speed figure at today’s distance, she has a high % winning jockey.
1 – Ariana Rye – She has a high % winning trainer whose horses win 21% of the races in dirt starts, she has a high % winning jockey and her early speed running style helps her chances so the shorter distance should be a plus.
6 – Graceful Rose – She has finished in the money in four races out of five starts at Aqueduct and has finished in the money in the five races out of eight starts at today’s distance.
Longshot:
7 – Foolish Challenge – She finished 3rd in her last race, she has a high % winning trainer and jockey and this combo in the last 14 days has this record (5 2-2-0).
Alternate:
5 – Poseidon’s Mist
4 – Mo Damorninggrouch
Race 4
2 – Strapped – He has finished in the money in the four races out of his last six starts, drops in class today, he has a high % winning trainer who wins 23% of the claiming races she has a horse competing in and his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters.
7 – D Day Sky – He has a high % winning trainer who wins 33% of the races when taking a horse from a sprint-sprint-route, drops in class today and has a high % winning jockey.
4 – Torpedo Run – He won his last race at Aqueduct, he has the highest last race speed rating and a good 4F workout on Nov-14.
Longshot:
5 – Boys Code – He has the highest speed figure at today’s distance and he has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Alternate:
3 – Irish Tenor
6 – Solo Empire
Race 5-Female
10 – Open Flame– She drops in class today, she has a high % winning trainer who wins 20% of the races when taking a horse from a maiden to a maiden claiming race, her best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters and she has a high % winning jockey.
6 – Furry Fox – She drops in class today, she has a high % winning trainer and blinkers are added today.
8 – Pawtucketshuffle – She switches to a high % winning jockey, drops in class today, she has a high % winning trainer who wins 19% of the races in a horse’s 1st route race.
Longshot:
1A – I Heard Somethings – She drops in class today, she has the highest last race speed rating (tie) and can improve while returning to dirt.
Alternate:
5 – Silent Sandy
7 – Classicals Finale
$.50 Pick 4: #1,6,8,10/2,4,6/2,5/2,6,8,9– Cost $48.00
Race 6-Female
6 – Vegas Weekend– She has finished in the money in the last six starts winning two races and she has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
4 – My First Love – She won her last race at Aqueduct and she has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
2 – It Takes Heart – She drops in class today, she has a high % winning trainer who wins 23% of the claiming races he has a horse running in, her best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters and has a high % winning jockey.
Longshot:
8 – R Funny Bizness – She has a high % winning trainer who wins 23% of the races in the 1st race after claiming a horse and she has a high % winning jockey.
Alternate:
1A – Jackson’s Dixie
Race 7-Female
5 – Sue Ellen Mishkin – She has finished in the money in the six races out of six starts at Aqueduct, winning three starts and has finished in the money in the eight races out of eight starts, winning six starts at today’s distance.
2 – A Maize Zing Dotie – She has won six races out of the last nine starts and she has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
7 – Mybronxbaby – She won her last race at Aqueduct and she has a high % winning jockey.
Longshot:
4 – Foxy Cara – She switches to a high % winning jockey and can handle the distance.
Alternate:
3 – Gone and Forgotten
Bet: $16.00 Win $26.00 Place: #5 – $4.00 DD: 5/2,6,8,9
Bet: $10.00 Exacta: 5/2,4,7
Race 8
9 – Bolt d’Plata – He finished 3rd vs similar in his last race, his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters and he has high % winning trainer.
6 – Very Satisfactory – He drops in class today and he has a high % winning trainer who wins 32% of the races when taking a horse from Turf to Dirt.
8 – Dangerous Driver – He ran 2nd vs similar in his last race and he has the highest last race speed rating.
Longshot:
2 – Shakin the Belle – His best dirt speed is close to the avg winning speed, the longer distance offers hope for improvement and he has a high % winning jockey.
Alternate:
4 – Comanche Peak
7 – Bad Boy Butch
Best Bet of the Day at Aqueduct – 7th Race – #5 – Sue Ellen Mishkin
Rich’s Picks:
Race 1: 1 Mile – Bias: Early Speed, 24% w2w – PP: Small Rail Discount, 2/3 Best, 4-7 Biggest Discount, 8+ Small Bonus
3 – KISS ME SLOW – second race improvement is all that’s needed
2B – SHE’S FASCINATING – wide trip in debut, very strong works since
5 – SHARP SMILE – better EP and fractions last out – better in 2nd up
4 – KEEPTHEDREAMALIVE – first timer with decent breeding and works
Race 2: 1 1/8 Miles – Bias: 2 races, Both Closers – PP: 1 Win 4+ and the other 8+
3 – YO DADDY – only horse in the race with a PAR race on its recent scorecard – better fractions
4 – BLACK RAIN – TLRSP#+3 – some risk for regression in 2nd up according to PPs
5 – PIRATE – rerun his last race at AQ and a strong chance to upset
6 – CALIFORNIA SOBER – debut was lone race on dirt was an easy win – next two were on turf
Race 3: 6 Furlongs – Bias: Early Speed, 42% w2w – PP: Outside In, Inside 3 Discount
3 – FIRST CLASS CAT – better EP in last and room for more in 3rd up
1 – ARIANA RYE – a little better fractions last out and resume says 2nd up will be a little to a lot better
4 – MO DAMORNINGGROUCH -maybe too much ES for the rest – 32 Q30 score
5 – POSEIDON’S MIST – another with a chance to show more in second off the sidelines
Race 4: 1 Mile – Bias: Early Speed, 24% w2w – PP: Small Rail Discount, 2/3 Best, 4-7 Biggest Discount, 8+ Small Bonus
2 – STRAPPED – SIM FAV at the lowest level of his career
7 – D DAY SKY – a consistent performer that’s faced much tougher in all of his races
4 – TORPEDO RUN – TLRSP#+5, upped SP# in last 5
3 – IRISH TENOR – going to be out front and if the others don’t care for kickback – w2w as lone E
Race 5: 1 Mile – Bias: Early Speed, 24% w2w – PP: Small Rail Discount, 2/3 Best, 4-7 Biggest Discount, 8+ Small Bonus
1 – MISCHIEVOUS TRICK – 2 for 1 special –1 had better fractions and pace
1A – I HEARD SOMETHINGS – just needs to be a little better in 3rd career start
6 – FURRY FOX – bad trip with multiple excuses in debut – yet, normal 2nd race improvement is all that’s needed
2 – FIFI LA FUME – maybe way too much early speed for the rest EP+11
7 – CLASSICALS FINALE – another that needs to be just a touch better today – but track riser
Race 6: 6 ½ Furlongs – Bias: Tactical Speed, 6 Races, none w2w – PP: Big Time Outside In – Inside 3 been bad
6 – VEGAS WEEKEND – crushed in her last – much better early, 2nd up and an outside post helps
2 – IT TAKES HEART – her average race is better than the best for most of the rest of these
4 – MY FIRST LOVE – very consistent performer – won big at this level last out
8 – R FUNNY BIZNESS – tough call over the entry – tr Michael Catalano, jr – 23% off the claim – strongest on an off track
Race 7: 6 Furlongs – Bias: Early Speed, 42% w2w – PP: Outside In, Inside 3 Discount
2 – A MAIZE ZING DOTIE – TLRSP#+9 – plenty of fast works prepping – almost all or nothing
5 – SUE ELLEN MISHKIN – most upside in the race – never off the board in 6 at AQ and rocks at the distance 8/6-0-2 – Linda Rice tr and owner
7 – MYBRONXBABY – should be forward – winner of 2/3 on an off track with a 2nd where she lost the lead late
4 – FOXY CARA – last race was better than it looks, better fractions despite going longer – better early pace
Race 8: 1 Mile – Bias: Early Speed, 24% w2w – PP: Small Rail Discount, 2/3 Best, 4-7 Biggest Discount, 8+ Small Bonus
6 – VERY SATISFACTORY – one of two of the biggest class drop and has a par race on his resume
2 – SHAKIN THE BELLE – top TOTAL PACE +6 – better EP in last
9 – BOLT D’PLATA – has the most upside – signs of life in his last with much better EP
11 – BOURBON OUTLAW – the other biggest class dropper – 1st up record is suspect – SIM FAV
