It’s a turf-heavy Thursday at Aqueduct, and Rich & Terry are ready to go deep with another strong day of racing analysis! 🏇
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Terry’s Picks
Aqueduct – 10 -13-25
Race 1
2 – Dark Vector – Ran 2nd vs similar in last race; Early speed running style helps chances; Best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters and has a high-percentage jockey.
1 – Leading Role: Drops in class today; rail post has a 20%-win rate. Trainer wins 22% of second starts after claiming, and the jockey has strong winning stats.
6 – Wajda – Has shown that he can win at Aqueduct and has a high % winning trainer who wins 26% of the claiming races she has a horse competing in.
Longshot:
3 – Cool Hand Rich – Has won 1 race out of 2 starts at Aqueduct; Early speed running style helps chances.
Alternate:
4 – Enduring Spirit
5 – Majestic Arc
Race 2
2 – Brew Pub – Finished in the money in the last 5 starts, winning once and finishing in 2nd in his last race; Best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters (tie); Has a high % winning jockey.
3 – Systemic Change – He likes Aqueduct Racing, finishing in the money in 67% of the races, winning 33% of the starts; can handle the distance, finishing in the money in 50% of the races, winning 25% of the starts.
6 – Suerte – Best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters (tie) and blinkers are added today.
Longshot:
7 – Tabeguache – Has a high % winning jockey; Highest speed figure at today’s distance and has a good 4F workout (Nov-08).
Alternate:
5 – Cicciobello
$.50 Pick 4: 2,3/1,3,5,7/2,4,7/5,9,10,12 – Cost $48.00
Race 3
1 – Hellacious – Placed in 2 of 3 starts. Drops in class today with a trainer who wins 26% when moving from maiden to maiden claiming, plus a high-percentage jockey.
3 – Snare – Finished 4th as the favorite in a similar race last time. Trained by trainer who wins 50 % of the races when bringing a beaten favorite back to race. Has a high % winning jockey.
5 – Dew – Finished 3rd vs similar in last race and has a high % winning jockey.
Longshot:
7 – Billy White Shoes – Has a high % winning trainer and best turf speed is close to the Avg Winning Speed.
Alternate:
4 – Joker On Fire
Race 4
2 – Bob John Ray – Won 2 races out of the last 3 starts. Drops in class today. Trained by a high-percentage trainer and has a high % winning jockey.
4 – Winter’s Ghost – Drops in class today; Early speed running style helps chances and can improve while returning to a route.
7 – Peek – Won last race at Aqueduct; Highest last race speed rating; He a high % winning trainer.
Longshot:
3 – O P Firecracker – He likes Aqueduct, finishing in the money in 56% of the races, winning 11% of the starts; can handle the distance, finishing in the money in 67% of the races, winning 17% of the starts.
Alternate:
1 – Commandperformance
Race 5-Female
12 – Livin the Breeze –Trained by a high-percentage trainer, jockey have strong win rates and Best turf speed is fastest among today’s starters.
10 – Cara’s Dreamchaser – Drops in class today and she has a high % winning jockey.
5 – Silly Season – He is a first-time starter whose breeding suggests she will like the grass Trained by a high-percentage winning trainer and ridden by a high-percentage winning.
Longshot:
9 – Raynham Hall – Finished in the money in 2 races out of 4 career starts. Both her trainer and jockey have strong win percentages and she has a good 4F workout (Nov-04).
Alternate:
7 – Bernina Express
Race 6
5 – Dirand – Won last race at Aqueduct; High % winning trainer and jockey.
3 – Space Legend – Drops in class today; Comes in from Great Britian and has a high % winning trainer who wins 26% of the races when shipping to U.S.; Switches to a high % jockey.
2 – Mutaawid – Best turf speed is fastest among today’s starters: He a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Longshot:
1 – Create Trouble – He won last race, he has a high % winning jockey.
Alternate:
9 – Dupont Law
$.50 Pick 4: 1,2,3,5/6,7/5,6,7,8/3,4,8 – Cost $48.00
Race 7–Female
6 – Army Gal – She won 3- races out of 5 starts at Aqueduct; Highest last race speed rating Trained by a high-percentage trainer and jockey have strong win rates.
7 -Senza Parole drops in class and is trained by a 26% second-time Lasix trainer; owns the top dirt speed in today’s field and features strong trainer-jockey stats.
3 – Filly Crystal – Finished in the money in her last 7 races wining 2 races and running 3rd in last race; Early speed running style helps chances.
Longshot:
10 – Grammy Girl – Finished in the money in 8 races out of his last 10 starts winning 3 races including the last start; Trained by a high-percentage trainer who wins 25% of dirt races; Has a bullet 3F workout (Nov-09).
Alternate:
2 – Despo’s Dream
5 – Mazayaat
Bet: $20.00 Win: 6 – $10.00 Exacta Box:6/7 – $10.00 Exacta: 6/3,7,10 – $5.00 Exacta Box: 3,6,7
Race 8–Female
8 – Fancy Lights – Placed in all 3 starts, won last race. Now with a top trainer and high-percentage jockey.
7 – Cosmic Candy Girl – Won last race at Aqueduct; has a high % winning jockey and a good 4F workout (Nov-07).
5 – Maria Callas – Won last race at Aqueduct; Shares fastest turf speed today; trained by a top trainer with a 28%-win rate switching sprint to route and paired with a winning jockey.
Longshot:
6 – Miss Moxee: Finished in the money in all 3 starts, winning twice. Her breeding indicates turf potential, with a dam who produced a turf winner. She is trained by a high-percentage trainer and rides with a top win-rate jockey.
Alternate:
4 – Boomington
1 – She’s Country
Race 9–
4 – Wicked Improbable – Finished in the money in 3 races out of 4 career starts, running 2nd vs similar in last race and has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
3 – A Bourbon for Toby – Placed in 7 of 10 starts; drops in class; has today’s top turf speed; trained by a successful trainer.
8 – Tiz Freedom – Ran 2nd vs similar in last race; Trained by high % winning trainer and ridden by high % winning jockey.
Longshot:
9 – Limo – Finished 3rd vs similar in last race; Trained by a high-percentage trainer; Has a bullet 4F workout (Nov-02).
Alternate:
6 – Disclaimer
Best Bet of the Day at Aqueduct – 7th Race – #6 – Army Gal
Rich’s Picks
Race 1: 7 Furlongs – Bias: Stalkers, 34% w2w – PP: Rail Strong, 2-7 Discount, 8+ Bonus
2 – DARK VECTOR – SIM FAV with top Par+ and Lone P vs all Es
1 – LEADING ROLE – run back to Sept 14 AQ run would be enough
4 – ENDURING SPIRIT – likely pacesetter and tied for top C ZONE
3 – COOL HAND RICH – maybe most upside in just 4th race
Race 2: 1 Mile – Bias: Early Speed, 25% w2w – PP: Outside In
3 – SYSTEMIC CHANGE – biggest in race edge LS +12
2 – BREW PUB – top Total Pace +5 – ITM 50% at the distance
6 – SUERTE – wide trip in last – skinnier field helps
1 – SKYLANDER – TLRSP# +5 and could be better in 2nd up
$0.50 Pick 4: 1,2,3,6/3,6,7/4,7/5,9,12,14
Race 3: 6 Furlong Outer Turf – Bias: Closers, 17% w2w – PP: Inside 3 Stink, 4-7 Best, 8+ Bonus
3 – SNARE – Only YES horse – with the biggest in race edge +7, highly consistent
7 – BILLY WHITE SHOES – just needs to improve little off of his last – strong breeding
6 – HOW ABOUT IT – resume says 2nd up will be better than last – which would be good enough
1 – HELLACIOUS – rail sucks but the better, IMHO, of the 2 pure MSW droppers
$0.50 Trifecta Box: 1,3,6,7
Race 4: 1 1/8 Miles – Bias: Early Speed, 40% w2w – PP: Rail Strong, 2/3 Fair, 4-7 Discount, 8+ Almost Fair
7 – PEEK – TLRSP# +7 and by far best C ZONE as PC – left arrow
4 – WINTER’S GHOST – toss last with lost footing – should revert to usual form in 2nd up
3 – O P FIRECRACKER – consistent at the distance and ITM 8/12
2 – BOB JOHN RAY – ITM 3/5 at Aqueduct – going back to dirt helps
Race 5: 1 1/16 Miles Turf – Bias: Stalkers, 0/7 w2w – PP: Strong Inside Out
9 – RAYNHAM HALL – highly consistent and has a solid maintenance work
12 – LIVIN THE BREEZE – Only YES horse in just 3rd career start
14 – STARSHIP AVA – just missed at this level last out – best published work since
5 – SILLY SEASON – Brown and Flavien on a 1st timer with excellent turf breeding
$0.50 Trifecta: 5,9,12,14/9,12,14/5,7,9,12,14
Race 6: 1 3/8 Miles – Bias: Closers, 2/8 w2w – PP: Rail Bonus, 2/3 Best, 4+ Discount, but inside better than out
2 – MUTAAWID – Big SIM FAV – with upside and 3rd up
3 – SPACE LEGEND – English form way beyond this level – here for a check
6 – KING D’ORO – strong late run in last – bullet work since – 2nd up
9 – DUPONT LAW – an Irish invader – going to benefit from Lasix in just 3rd start
$0.50 Pick 4: 2,3,6,9/2,7/5,7,8/3,4,5,6
$5 Exacta Key Box: 2/3,6,9
Race 7: 6 ½ Furlongs – Bias: Early Speed, 34% w2w – PP: Rail Discount, 2-7 Bonus, 8+ Same Discount as Rail
7 – SENZA PAROLE – Top TOTAL PACE +6 – drops form a Grade 2
2 – DESPO’S DREAM – better fractions, Top C ZONE and big price
3 – FILLY CRYSTAL – strong chance to be out on the lead all by herself
6 – ARMY GAL – TLRSP# +5 rerun that race and it’s a wrap – winner 3/5 at AQ
$0.50 Trifecta Box: 2,3,6,7
Race 8: 1 Mile Turf – Bias: Stalkers, 0/7 ww – PP: None from Rail, 2/3 Best, 4+ Discount
7 – COSMIC CANDY GIRL – not that far from being undefeated in 3
8 – FANCY LIGHTS – 3 solid works between race
5 – MARIA CALLAS – TLRSP# +5, SIM FAV – Left Arrow Pacesetter
9 – SACRED GODDESS – top TOTAL PACE + 6 – been running vs this type of company
$0.50 Trifecta: 5,7,8,9/5,7,8/1,5,7,8,9
Race 9: 1 1/16 Miles Outer Turf – Bias: Closers, 2/7 w2w – PP: Strong Rail, 2-7 Fair, 8+ Discount
3 – A BOURBON FOR TOBY – TLRSP#+3 – SIM FAV – better EP/Fractions and Drops
6 – DISCLAIMER – super consistent – just missed after early race issue in last
4 – WICKED IMPROBABLE – Top Total Pace and just missed at this level in last
5 – OPERATION OVERLORD – Z Pattern in last and room to pop in 3rd career start
$0.50 Trifecta: 3,4,5,6/3,4,6/3,4,5,6,11
