It’s a picture-perfect day at Aqueduct, and we’ve got 9 races on fast dirt and firm turf — ideal conditions for strong handicapping angles, reliable pace setups, and live longshots. Rich and Terry break down the entire card with Smart Sheets data, running-style analysis, and the key factors that separate the contenders from the pretenders.
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Terry’s Picks
Aqueduct – 11-20-25
Race 1-Female
1 – Britain – Finished 3rd vs similar in only start; She has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
3 – Pomerance – First-time starter; dam produced 3 winners (1 stakes) and paired with a high-percentage trainer and jockey.
4 – Backstreets – Has a high-percentage winning jockey.
Longshot:
5 – Interstatelovesong – She is a First-time starter whose Dam has 2 winners from 2 starters and she has a high % winning jockey.
Alternate:
2 – Cravings
Race 2-Female
2 – Off Script – Has been the bridesmaid 6 races out of her 8 career starts but should be the bride today; She has a high % winning jockey.
4 – Neri –Trainer who wins 17% of races in the1st race at a route; has a high-percentage jockey.
6 – Morgana’s Moment – She is a First-time starter whose Dam has 2 winners from 2 starters and she has a high % winning jockey.
Longshot:
5 – Lady Delilah – May improve while returning to Dirt.
Alternate:
1 – Bank On Bebe
$.50 Pick 4: 2,4/1,6/1,2,4,5,7/2,3,4,5,7 – Cost $50.00
Race 3-Female
6 – Itwillbefun – Finished 3rd vs similar in last race. Trained by a high-percentage trainer who wins 24% of claiming races and she has a high % winning jockey.
1 – Sheer Will – Won last race at Aqueduct; Highest last race speed rating; she has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
2 – I’m Kidding –Trained by a high-percentage trainer; Highest speed figure at today’s distance and a good 4F workout (Nov-16).
Longshot:
4 – Bow to Clara – Trained by Linda Rice and ridden by Kendrick Carmouche and her best dirt speed is faster than the avg winning speed.
Alternate:
3 – That’s Funny
5 – Second Chance
Race 4
1 – Whiskey N Soda – A beaten a favorite last race but has a high-percentage trainer (23%-win rate when bringing a horse back); drops in class today and has a high % winning jockey.
5 – Flat On – Finished 3rd vs similar in last race has a high % winning trainer and has a good 4F workout (Nov-16).
2 – Aleah Aleah – Finished 2nd last time, has the highest recent speed rating, and is trained by a trainer with an 18%-win rate for horses returning after 46-90 days.
Longshot:
4 – Awesome Empire – Finished in the money in 4 races out of her last 5 starts, winning 1 of the races and he has a high % winning jockey.
Alternate:
7 – First Trumpet
Race 5-Female
7- Coquito – Third last out against tougher; now drops in class, gets a top jockey, and is trained by a 26% claiming race winner.
2 – It Takes Heart – Won last race at Aqueduct; Best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters and has a good 3F workout (Nov-15).
3 – My First Love – Trained by a 24% claiming race winner, holds the top speed figure at today’s distance.
Longshot:
5 – Pistol Liz Ablazen: Drops in class, holds top speed at this distance, and benefits from a high-percentage trainer and jockey.
Alternate:
4 – Floge
Race 6-Female
9 – Five Dozen Roses: Second in her last race after a win; trained by a trainer with a 25% Maiden Claiming win rate and ridden by a successful jockey.
6 – You Know Better – Gets a top jockey and drops in class; dam has 1 winner from 3 starters. Trainer wins 31% moving horses from maiden to maiden claiming.
5 – Brokealltherules: Runner-up last start. High-percentage trainer/jockey; now with Lasix.
Longshot:
10 – Lady Meringue: First time starter whose Breeding suggests she will like the grass; Breeding suits today’s sprint distance. High-percentage trainer/jockey; now with Lasix.
Alternate:
7 – Froghollowsummer
$.50 Pick 4: 5,6,9,10/3,4,6/2,4/3,6,8,13 – Cost $48.00
Race 7–
3 – Bendoog – Finished in the money in 5 races out of his 5 starts at Aqueduct, winning 3; Has the highest last race speed rating.
6 – Full Screen – Finished in the money in all 5 starts at Aqueduct, switches to a high % jockey and has a high % winning trainer.
4 – Golden Ice has placed in 9 of his last 10 races, winning 5 (including the last 3 consecutively). He is trained by a high-percentage winning trainer.
Longshot:
5 – Warp Nine – He won last race at Laurel, he has a high % winning jockey.
Alternate:
2 – Film Star
Race 8-Female
4 – Danzit – Finished in the money in 3 races out of her 4 career starts, winning 1 of the races and she has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
2 – Midnight Concerto: Third last time, best recent speed rating, and trained by a top trainer.
7 – Purloin – Won last race at Aqueduct; Both her trainer and jockey have strong win percentages.
Longshot:
3 – Pens Street – Finished 3rd in last race; Best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters; Both her trainer and jockey have strong win percentages.
Alternate:
6 – Walk With Me
Bet: $40.00 Win: 4 – $10.00 Exacta: 4/2,3,7 – $5.00 Exacta Box: 2,4,7
Race 9–
8 – Jack’s World – Finished 3rd last out; shares top turf speed, has a high-percentage trainer and jockey, and adds blinkers today.
3 – Kuleana – Finished 3rd vs similar in last race and he a high % winning trainer and jockey.
6 – Hoity Moroni – Finished 3rd in all 3 career starts and the and the longer distance offers hope for improvement.
Longshot:
13 – Leave Me – Ran 2nd vs similar in only start and best turf speed is fastest among today’s starters (tie).
Alternate:
7 – George’s Gold
Best Bet of the Day at Aqueduct – 8th Race – #4 – Danzit
Rich’s Picks
Race 1: 7 Furlongs
1 – BRITAIN – 2nd race improvement well past par
5 – INTERSTATELOVESONG – 2.67 firster with Oct 26th 4f 47.1 – fastest of 129
4 – BACKSTREETS – 2nd race improvement, not as much as the 1
3 – POMERANCE – another 1ster for Chad Brown
Race 2: 1 Mile
2 – OFF SCRIPT – Only YES horse – TLRSP# + 4 vs experienced and +8 Total Pace
3 – OUR PREFERRED PAL – strong C ZONE for likely leader – maybe 1
6 – MORGANA’S MOMENT – 1st timer and not much to beat after the top 2
5 – LADY DELILAH – maybe 2 horse with strongish PAR+
$0.50 Pick 4: 2,3,6/1,2/1,2,4,5/2,4,7,9
Race 3: 6 Furlongs
1 – SHEER WILL – TLRSP#+6 with 3 SP# increases and a pair or works since last
2 – I’M KIDDING – Lone E with a lot of speed compared to the rest
3 – THAT’S FUNNY – solid late run and should be better in round 2 off the bench
6 – ITWILLBEFUN – 5 Ways better – room for more in 3rd up
$5 Exacta Key Box: 1/2,3,6
Race 4: 1 1/8 Miles
1 – WHISKEY N SODA – biggest class drop for SIM FAV – plenty of back class
5 – FLAT ON – highly consistent and ran faster last out
4 – AWESOME EMPIRE – Top Total Pace – better ATB in last
2 – ALEAH ALEAH – another that could be out front by himself
Race 5: 1 Mile
7 – COQUITO – ITM 5/5 at AQ – small Z in last and should be better in 3rd after a layoff
2 – IT TAKES HEART – Lone E that should lead – ITM 6/6 at the distance
9 – SHE’S COOL – better EP early in last and faster at 1 Mile in last vs previous 1 M run
4 – FLOGE – SIM FAV – tough call over the 1 – more upside and finished ahead when they met
$0.50 Trifecta Box: 2,4,7,9
Race 6: 6 Furlong Outer Turf
9 – FIVE DOZEN ROSES – YES horse with biggest in race edge on +7 LS
1 – PUREST PERFORMANCE – is a bomb – but is the other YES horse – got to have her
4 – ENDLESS KISS – 2nd race upside PARability – was the 8/5 fav in MC30k debut
10 – LADY MERINGUE – low rated 1ster vs noes and maybes – nice work on Nov 3
$0.50 Pick 4: 1,4,9,10/2,3/2,4,7/2,3,8,13
$0.50 Trifecta Box: 1,4,9,10
Race 7: 1 1 /8 Miles
3 – BENDOOG – TLRSP# +7 – AQ 5/3-1-1
2 – FILM STAR – catch me if you can – +8 ES edge vs mid backs – strongest C ZONE
6 – FULL SCREEN – AQ 5/0-3-2 – super consistent 2nd up, a little better or a little worse
4 – GOLDEN ICE – most LS of the closers, track riser worries
Race 8: 1 1 /8 Miles
2 – MIDNIGHT CONCERTO – TLRSP# +6 Only YES horse – SIM FAV and lone class dropper
4 – DANZIT – getting better by the race but likes to hang late
7 – PURLOIN – top TOTAL PACE +6 – more upside in the 3rd up
6 – WALK WITH ME – strong Z Pattern in last and while being better ATB
Race 9: 1 1/16 Miles Outer Turf
13 – LEAVE ME – most 2nd race upside vs noes and maybes
3 – KULEANA – blocked in last or might already be a winner
8 – JACK’S WORLD – any improvement from last and it’s probably a wrap
2 – SICILIAN DANCER – got to give the 1ster a shot versus these
$5 Exacta Key Box: 13/2,3,6,8
