It’s a fast-track Thursday at Aqueduct, and today’s 8-race card sets up perfectly for strong pace angles, class drops, and value runners who thrive on a quick surface. Rich and Terry break down every race with Smart Sheets data, race-shape projections, and key factors that help you separate live contenders from the pack.
👉 Download the Smart Sheets for in-depth data and pace insights.
https://horseracingtoday.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/AQ-12-4-25.pdf
Smart Sheets Explanations
https://horseracingtoday.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/05/Data-Sheet-Explanations.pdf
👉 Like what we do? You can support the show through the Tip Jar — it keeps us producing daily analysis and picks!
https://www.paypal.com/donate/?hosted_button_id=7EY3A57YHD44J
Guaranteed Tip Sheet Free Track: Penn National – https://www.guaranteedtipsheet.com/index.aspx?afid=hrt
Terry’s Picks
Aqueduct -12-04-25
Race 1-Female
3 – Formaggio – Ran 2nd vs similar in last race; Highest last race speed rating; Best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters; She has a high % winning jockey.
1 – Relevate: Rail post wins 22% of the time. Returns to dirt with a trainer who has a 22%-win rate switching from turf to dirt. Lasix added; recent bullet 3F workout (Nov-29).
2 – Waveless – First time starter whose Sire wins 17% with 1st time Starters and Dam has 2 winners from 2 starters. Trained by a high-percentage trainer and jockey.
Longshot:
6 – Endless Kiss – She has a high % winning trainer and jockey and blinkers are added today.
Alternate:
4 – Laylani Lou
5 – Pay the Bills
Race 2
3 – Time to Win – Placed in 3 career races: Last race finishing 3rd as the favorite. Has a high % winning trainer who wins 29% of the races with beaten favorite’s and switches to a high-percentage jockey.
1 – Salvation – Ran 2nd vs similar in last race; Best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters (tie) and has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
2 – Roger Roger – Has a high % winning trainer who wins 17% of the dirt starts: Has a high % winning jockey and recent bullet 4F workout (Nov-28).
Longshot:
4 – Love’m Or Liam – She has a high % winning trainer and jockey
Alternate:
6 – Tiz Freedom
5 – Implacable
$.50 Pick 4: 1,3/4,7/1,2,6,7/1,2,3,6,7,8 – Cost $48.00
Race 3
7 – Spirit Dragon – Placed in 3 career races: Finished 3rd vs similar in last race. Highest last race speed rating and has a high-percentage jockey.
4 – Shadow Surge – Class drop today; early speed suits, should benefit from shorter distance, owns today’s top dirt speed.
3 – Dark Vector – Finished in the money in 3 races out of her last 4 starts: Best dirt speed is faster than the Avg Winning Speed.
Longshot:
6 – Pandemic Hero – Finished in the money in 2 races out of his 3 starts at Aqueduct and he has a high % winning jockey.
Alternate:
2 – Tapwrits Temper
5 – Ready Set Twirl
Race 4
1 – Breslau – Won last race; Rail post is winning at a 22% clip and has a high % winning trainer.
2 – Light the Way – Likes Aqueduct, finishing in the money in 63% of the races, winning 19% of the starts; can handle the distance, finishing in the money in 67% of the races.
6 – Exact Estimate – Finished in the money in 3 races out of her last 4 starts, winning 1 race and he has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Longshot:
7 – Dear Dad – Drops in class today; Has a high % winning trainer who wins 21% of the Allowance races and can improve at the shorter distance.
Alternate:
5 – Signator
Race 5-Female
7 – Forever to Go – Placed in 6 out of 8 career races. Switches to a high % winning jockey and has the highest last race speed rating.
8 – Will of a Womanne – Can improve while returning to dirt and she has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
1 – Three Nines Fine – Ran 2nd vs similar in last race; Rail post is winning at a 30% clip; Early speed running style helps chances so the shorter distance can help.
Longshot:
2 – Rare Society – Finished 3rd vs similar in last race; Has a high % winning jockey and blinkers added today.
Alternate:
3 – Patience N Grace
6 – Sassetti
$.50 Pick 4: 1,2,3,7,8 /7,8/1,5/1,2,9,10,11 – Cost $50.00
Race 6-Female
8 – Divine Grace – Ran 2nd vs similar in last race; Best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters; Trained by a high-percentage winning trainer.
7 – Foxy Cara – Ran 2nd in last race and he has a high % winning trainer.
1 – Miss Lao – Finished 3rd in last race; Early speed running style helps chances so the shorter distance can help.
Longshot:
2 – Spring Magic –Trained by a high-percentage winning trainer and has the highest speed figure at today’s distance.
Alternate:
4 – Floge
5 – Rodeo Star
Race 7–
5 – Russian Realm – Likes PARX Racing, finishing in the money in 63% of the races, winning 25% of the starts; can handle the distance, finishing in the money in 80% of the races, winning 40% of the starts.
1 – Cut the Cord – Finished 3rd in last race; Highest speed figure at today’s distance; High % winning trainer and jockey.
2 – Palace Boss – Finished in the money in 6 races out of her last 7 starts, winning 2 starts: He a high % winning trainer.
Longshot:
8 – King’s Leap – He has won his last two races in a row and now goes for a hat trick, and he has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Alternate:
9 – Willintoriskitall
10 – Chief Liam
Bet: $20.00 Win: 5 – $10.00 Exacta Box:1/5 – $10.00 Exacta: 5/1,2,8 – $5.00 Exacta Box: 1,2,5
Race 8–
11 – Frizzante – Ran 2nd vs similar in last race; Highest last race speed rating (tie) and has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
1 – Complex Music – Ran 2nd vs similar in last race; Rail post is winning at a 22% clip and he a high % winning jockey.
9 – Register – Drops in class today; Best Dirt Speed is fastest among today’s starters and he a high % winning jockey.
Longshot:
2 – Smilensaycheese – Won last race at Aqueduct; Trained by a high-percentage trainer and jockey.
Alternate:
10 – Free Dance
3 – Jungle Glow
Best Bet of the Day at Aqueduct – 7th Race – #5 – Russian Realm
Rich’s Picks
Race 1: 7 Furlongs – Bias: Early Speed, 36% w2w – PP: Strong Rail, 2/3 Discount, 4-7 Bonus, None 8+
2 – WAVELESS 1st TIMER vs noes and maybes – decent works
1 – RELEVATE – speed in debut, tried turf in last, back to dirt with 1st time Lasix
3 – FORMAGGIO – TLRSP# +4 and her resume says she will be better in the 2nd up
6 – ENDLESS KISS – tough call over the 4 & 5 – but more upside in just 3rd career start and Top Total Pace
Race 2: 1 Mile – Bias: Early Speed, 23% w2w – PP: Rail Discount, 2/3 Bonus, 4-7 Discount, 8+ Tough
3 – TIME TO WIN – Even Money SIM FAV – Pratt and Brown win at 33%
1 – SALVATION – resume says he could pop in a big way in the 3rd up
5 – IMPLACABLE – lots of speed compared to the rest – 2nd race upside
4 – LOVE’M OR LIAM – Z pattern in last and has 3 works including his best published
$0.50 Pick 4: 1,3,5/4,7/1,2,6/1,6,7,8,9
Race 3: 6 Furlongs – Bias: Early Speed, 47% w2w – PP: Rail Big Bonus, 2/3 Discount, 4-7 Fair, 8+ Bonus
7 – SPIRIT DRAGON – TLRSP#7 for the 7 – 1st time making 2 starts in a row – finally healthy – top total pace and biggest in race edge of LS+7 – and should not be too far off the pace
4 – SHADOW SURGE – SIM FAV – tough start in last – rebound to Oct 11th and it and EZ win
2 – TAPWRITS TEMPER – very consistent – Better ATB with quicker ¼ mile fractions
3 – DARK VECTOR – along with the 4 – the only YES horses – cut back in distance helps
$26 Win: 7
Race 4: 7 Furlongs – Bias: Early Speed, 36% w2w – PP: Strong Rail, 2/3 Discount, 4-7 Bonus, None 8+
1 – BRESLAU – TLRSP#+4 as pacesetter, top LS = Top Total Pace +6 – Bullet work -4f in 46
2 – LIGHT THE WAY – Lone Class Dropper – will push for the lead too top C ZONE and PAR+
6 – EXACT ESTIMATE – hard to believe there are Alpa Angles for Cox – 1st off the claim 38 v 33
5 – SIGNATOR – maybe moving back to dirt helps – winner 3/7 and 2/12 at or on anything else
$2 Exacta Key Box: 1/2,5,6
Race 5: 6 Furlongs – Bias: Early Speed, 47% w2w – PP: Rail Big Bonus, 2/3 Discount, 4-7 Fair, 8+ Bonus
7 – FOREVER TO GO – YES Horse that should be on the lead as Top Total Pace – AQ 5/0-4-0
8 – WILL OF A WOMANNE – SIM FAV – AQ 2/0-2-0 – will be closing and not too far from lead
1 – THREE NINES FINE – another YES horse – big pop or drop in 2nd up
9 – RED BOOTS – last race sucked – but plenty of room from upside in 3rd start – run back to debut give her a good chance
$0.50 Pick 4: 1,7,8,9/2,4,8/6,8/2,5,7,11
Race 6: 1 Mile – Bias: Early Speed, 23% w2w – PP: Rail Discount, 2/3 Bonus, 4-7 Discount, 8+ Tough
4 – FLOGE – SIM FAV with the biggest in race edge +10 – Top Total Pace – Top C ZONE
8 – DIVINE GRACE – TLRSP#+4 – better ATB – winner 3/5 at the distance – track riser
2 – SPRING MAGIC – should be out front – tied for biggest class dropper – tr & jy 2/2
7 – FOXY CARA – better ATB in last in a bounce back effort – cutting back a little helps?
$5 Exacta Key Box: 4/2,5,7,8
Race 7: 1 Mile – Bias: Early Speed, 23% w2w – PP: Rail Discount, 2/3 Bonus, 4-7 Discount, 8+ Tough
8 – KING’S LEAP – strong work – cutting back in distance – resume says 3rd up should be the best of the cycle
6 – ALAN TURING – a little luck away from a 4 race win streak – turf to dirt is the question
5 – RUSSIAN REALM – Flavien winning at 38% – how do you not include him?
1 – CUT THE CORD – probably the most consistent back class switching barns helps?
$0.50 Trifecta Box: 1,5,6,8
Race 8: 7 Furlongs – Bias: Early Speed, 36% w2w – PP: Strong Rail, 2/3 Discount, 4-7 Bonus, None 8+
7 – AERO STAR – Pacesetter and Kendrick – that’s like Peanut Butter and Jelly – they just go together
11 – FRIZZANTE – only YES horse with better EP – Linda Rice 33% staying in the claiming ranks off a win
2 – SMILENSAYCHEESE – by far best C ZONE and lone PC – Top Total Pace
5 – LOU – tough call over a bunch of others – SIM FAV – last race not as bad as it looks – basically same time as a race he won two back – improves in 2nd up
$0.50 Trifecta Box: 2,5,7,11
