It’s Humpday at Aqueduct, the track is fast, and Terry is back alongside Rich to break down all 8 races with data-driven analysis, Smart Sheets insights, and their usual combo of experience + race flow expertise.
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Terry’s Picks
Aqueduct -12-10-25
Race 1-Female
4 – Kay Cup – Finished in the money in 4 races out of her last 5 starts, winning 2 races; Drops in class today and she has a high % winning jockey.
5 – City Blocks – Won last race at Saratoga: Early speed running style helps chances; Best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters.
2 – Lika Rolling Stone – Won last race and she has a high % winning trainer.
Longshot:
1 – Ariana Rye – Finished in the money in 5 races out of her last 7 starts, winning 3 starts and has a high % winning trainer.
Alternate:
3 – Bam’s Bliss Kiss
Race 2
1 – Waitin’onasunnyday – Rail post wins 22% of the time; returns to dirt and owns today’s fastest dirt speed. Notable recent 4F workout (Dec-02).
2 – Tinseltown – First time starter whose Dam has 2 winner from 2 starters and has a high % winning trainer and a good 4F workout (Dec-01).
5 – Just Tipsy – Had an awkward start affecting the finish; Highest last race speed rating; High % winning trainer and a bullet 3F workout (Dec-05).
Longshot:
6 – Slay Sadie Slay – First time starter who has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Alternate:
4 – First Blessing
7 – Sixer
$.50 Pick 4: 1,2,5,6/1,2,8/6,7/1,6,7,9 – Cost $48.00
Race 3-Female
8 – Tammy’s Cruiser – Third last out against similar; tops in last race speed rating; trainer wins 38% after a claim; strong win-rate jockey.
1 – Mia Nipotina: Finished 2nd in last race; Rail post wins 22% of the time; Can handle the distance.
2 – Timia – Finished 3rd vs similar in last race and has a high-percentage jockey.
Longshot:
6 – Cloudy Chance – Finished 3rd in last race; She has a high % winning trainer who wins 27% of the races when shipping a horse in to run.
Alternate:
5 – Laughing Lady
7 – Ragtime Sizzle
Race 4
7 – Celestial Glaze – Ran 2nd vs similar in last race; Best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters and he has a high % winning jockey.
6 – Golden Symphony – Placed in 4 of his 6 at Aqueduct, winning twice; his early speed suits this shorter distance, and he benefits from a high-percentage trainer.
4 – Rithm Nic – Finished 2nd in last race; Highest last race speed rating and he has a good 5F workout (Dec-03).
Longshot:
5 – Shattuck – Finished 3rd vs similar in last race and has a good 4F workout (Dec-01).
Alternate:
2 – Exploration Drops in class today and he has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
1 – Kaz Sugar Bank
Race 5
9 – Hello Newman – Placed 3rd last out; owns the field’s top dirt speed, a strong trainer record, and a solid Dec-03 4F workout.
6 – Island Charlie – Drops in class today; Highest last race speed rating and he has a good 4F workout (Dec-01).
1 – Fric and Frac – Rail post is winning at a 23% clip; Can improve while returning to dirt; drops in class today and blinkers added today.
Longshot:
7 – Army Proud – Finishing in the money in 5 of the races out of 10 starts during career and he has a high % winning jockey.
Alternate:
3 – Until Last Call
5 – Monte Avi
$.50 Pick 4: 1,3,6,7,9 /4,6/2,3,4,6,7/5,7 – Cost $50.00
Race 6
6 – Whiskey Frens – Finished in the money in 9 races out of her last 10 starts, winning 3 starts and has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
4 – Bold Victory – A closer who is stretching out from 7f from a mile which will be a plus and has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
5 – Bar Fourteen – Finished in the money in 3 races out of her last 4 starts, winning 1 start and he has a high % winning trainer.
Longshot:
1 – Tiberius Mercurius – Finished in the money in 2 races out of her last 3 starts at Aqueduct; Drops in class today; Has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Alternate:
3 – Six Kings
Race 7–
4 – What’s Up Bro – Likes PARX Racing, finishing in the money in 67% of the races, winning 33% of the starts; can handle the distance, finishing in the money in 57% of the races, winning 43% of the starts.
7 – Tall Paul – He is 1 for 1 at Aqueduct; Switches to a high % winning jockey and has a good 4F workout (Dec-01.
6 – Factually Correct – Finished 3rd in last race; Best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters: Highest last race speed rating.
Longshot:
2 – Master Freud – Finished in the money in 3 races out of her last 4 starts at Aqueduct; winning the last start and he has a high % winning trainer.
Alternate:
3 – Yo Banana Boy
5 – Braciole
Race 8–
7 – Wajda – Finished 2nd last race; early speed suits this shorter distance. Has the fastest dirt speed today, plus trainer and jockey have high win rates.
5 – Shoot the Nickel – Finished 3rd vs tougher in last race; Drops in class today; Highest speed figure at today’s distance.
2 – Leading Role – Finished 3rd vs similar in last race as the favorite but has a high % winning trainer who wins 19% of the races with beaten favorite’s and has a high-percentage jockey.
Longshot:
4 – Cousin Ed – Highest last race speed rating; May improve while returning to dirt.
Alternate:
3 – Doomed
Bet: $20.00 Win: 7 – $10.00 Exacta Box:5/7 – $10.00 Exacta: 7/2,4,5 – $5.00 Exacta Box: 2,5,7
Best Bet of the Day at Aqueduct – 8th Race – #7 – Wajda
Rich’s Picks
Race 1: 7 Furlongs – Bias: Early Speed, 35% w2w – PP: Rail Bonus, 2/3 Discount, 4-7 Bonus, 8+ Best
5 – CITY BLOCKS – let’s take a shot at the heavy fav – TLRSP#+7 and Top TOTAL PACE +6
4 – KAY CUP – consistent performer dropping from 3 NGSTKs in a row
1 – ARIANA RYE – should be a part of the early pace – but 1st up record is sketchy
3 – BAM’S BLISS KISS – if the 1 doesn’t lead this one will – 3SP# increases
2 – LIKA ROLLING STONE
Race 2: 6 Furlongs – Bias: Early Speed, 50% w2w – PP: Rail Bonus, 2/3 Discount, 4-7 Almost Fair, 8+ Best
3 – GAME FOR IT – strongly rated 1st timer – Nov 9 work 4f in 46.3
6 – SLAY SADIE SLAY – the other strongly rated 1st timer – strong work at CD 47.4
5 – JUST TIPSY – MSW dropper with 2nd race Parabilty well past par
2 – TINSELTOWN – the last of the 1st timers – OK works
$0.50 Pick 4: 3,5,6/1,4,7,8/2,3,4,7/6,7
Race 3: 6 Furlongs – Bias: Early Speed, 50% w2w – PP: Rail Bonus, 2/3 Discount, 4-7 Almost Fair, 8+ Best
7 – RAGTIME SIZZLE – last race was way wide – better and cleaner trip in 2nd up
4 – AURORALINNA – should be forward as the Top PAR+ and TOTAL PACE, SIM FAV
1 – MIA NIPOTINA – biggest in race edge with +9 LS
8 – TAMMY’S CRUISER – TLRSP#+ 6 – been off since April – decent works getting prepped
$5 Exacta Key Box: 7/1,4,8
Race 4: 7 Furlongs – Bias: Early Speed, 35% w2w – PP: Rail Bonus, 2/3 Discount, 4-7 Bonus, 8+ Best
3 – DISARMED – SIM FAV and could be the pace setter and lone class dropper
2 – EXPLORATION – first time for tr Rob Atras – I expect to see him send instead of close
7 – CELESTIAL GLAZE – most consistent with most back class – Flavien winning everything
4 – RITHM NIC – TLRSP#+5 – better EP and LP – has shown stakes level LS before
$2 Exacta Key Box: 3/2,4,7
Race 5: 6 ½ Furlongs – Bias: Early Speed, 39% w2w – PP: Rail Best, 2/3 Huge Hit, 4-7 Bonus, 8+ Discount
6 – ISLAND CHARLIE – TLRSP# 6 – Yes Horse – could be lone E – Lone MSW Dropper
7 – ARMY PROUD – YES Horse – and SIM FAV – got to have him
9 – HELLO NEWMAN – most consistent in the race – hands down
3 – UNTIL LAST CALL – room to pop in 3rd race if so – could get past par
$0.50 Pick 4: 6,7/3,4,5/3,4,6,7/2,4,5,7
Race 6: 1 Mile – Bias: Stalkers, 24% w2w – PP: Rail Fair, 2/3 Best, 4+ Discount, Inside Better
5 – BAR FOURTEEN – Lone E – one the Lead, top C ZONE – catch me if you can
4 – BOLD VICTORY – last race a lot better than it looks – faster by a second
3 – SIX KINGS – the only YES horse – you have to have them
6 – WHISKEY FRENS – has shown strong EP and LP – but never together
$5 Exacta Key Box: 5/3,4,6
Race 7: 6 ½ Furlongs – Bias: Early Speed, 39% w2w – PP: Rail Best, 2/3 Huge Hit, 4-7 Bonus, 8+ Discount
6 – FACTUALLY CORRECT – TLRSP#+6 – Top TOTAL PACE +6 – bunch of works since
7 – TALL PAUL – Terranova claims Back in back in forth with Baffert – won lone AQ trip handily over….
3 – YO BANANA BOY – SIM FAV – run back to Sept 26th and it’s a wrap – 3rd up -first time in more than a year – finally healthy
4 – WHAT’S UP BRO – speed and fade in 1st up – 2 works since – more stamina today
$0.50 Trifecta Box: 3,4,6,7
Race 8: 6 Furlongs – Bias: Early Speed, 50% w2w – PP: Rail Bonus, 2/3 Discount, 4-7 Almost Fair, 8+ Best
4 – COUSIN ED – TLRSP+3 – SIM FAV, biggest in race edge +8LS and Top TOTAL PACE +8
5 – SHOOT THE NICKEL – certainly proven at AQ 5/1-2-1 and the distance 7/1-3-2
2 – LEADING ROLE – rerun Sept 14th race w2w – Kendrick on to do just that – Top C ZONE
7 – WAJDA – the other YES horse with the 4 – resume says a little better in 2nd up
$0.50 Trifecta Box: 2,4,5,7
