We close out 2025 the right way — at Aqueduct, in the Big Apple, where the ball drops and racing history runs deep. Today’s 8-race card features a fast track and a heavy dose of maiden races, setting the stage for breakout performances, improvement cycles, and some sneaky value to finish the year strong.
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Terry’s Picks
Aqueduct -12-31-25
Race 1
7 – Where’s Your Boom – Finished second in last two similar races; trained by a 17% win-rate trainer in 2YO races; blinkers added today.
6 – Combat Mission – Runner-up against tougher last race; drops in class; top dirt speed; high-percentage jockey.
3 – Twenty One Red – Finished 3rd vs similar in last race; Has a high % winning trainer and jockey; Has a good 4F workout (Dec-24).
Longshot:
5 – Le Cadeau – Has a high % winning trainer and jockey; Has a good 4F workout (Dec-24).
Alternate:
4 – Leave Me
1 – Tizlawry
Race 2
3 – Bootsy’s a Rascal – Finished 2nd in last race; and has a high % winning jockey.
1 – Qbits – First time starter whose Dam has 1 winner from 2 starters: Has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
2 – Mission Critical – Has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Longshot: and
6 – Classic Commander – Has a high % winning jockey and a good 4F workout (Dec-24).
Alternate:
7 – Life’s Too Short
$.50 Pick 4: 1,3/1,2,3,4,7/2,5,6,7,10/1,2 – Cost $50.00
Race 3-Female
3 – Maxaluna – She has won her last two races in a row and now goes for a hat trick, and she has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
2 – Will Not Be Swayed – Finished in the money in 2 races out of her last 3 starts, winning 1 start and has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
1 – Hey Cookie: Rail post wins 20% of the time; Has a high-percentage winning trainer and jockey.
Longshot:
4 – Tiz Purple – Won last race at Aqueduct; has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Alternate:
7 – Sheer Will
Race 4
2 – Sabby Sunset – Ran 2nd vs similar in last race; Early speed running style helps chances and he has a high % winning jockey.
7 – Counter Move – Placed in 3 of his 5 at Aqueduct; Drops in class today; He benefits from a high-percentage winning trainer and jockey.
6 – Good Cop – Has a High % trainer who wins 27% of the starts in the 2nd race after claiming a horse.
Longshot:
10 – Army Proud – Runner-up against similar rivals last time; owns the top recent speed rating; early speed and a shorter distance boost his chances.
Alternate:
5 – Forgone
9 – Undergrad
Race 5
2 – Hadrian’s Wall – Ran 2nd in debut against similar; Fastest dirt speed today; Trainer and jockey have high win rates.
1 – Ottinho – Finished 3rd vs similar in only start; Rail post is winning at a 23% clip; Has a high % winning trainer who wins 31% in the 2nd route race.
7 – Double Act – Finished in the money in 2 races out of her last 3 starts at Aqueduct; Trainer and jockey have high win rates.
Longshot:
3 – Grey Bull – Finished 3rd in last race; he has a high % winning trainer.
Alternate:
6 – Gulfy
$.50 Pick 4: 1,2,3,7/1,2,3,4/2,5,7/8,9 – Cost $48.00
Race 6
4 – Kerness K – Can lead or come from behind to win a race, finishing 3rd vs similar in last race; Has a high % winning jockey.
3 – Complex Music – Finished in the money in 3 races out of her last 3 starts at Aqueduct; finishing 3rd vs similar in last race; Has a high % winning jockey.
2 – Re Markably: Placed in 2 of her last 3 races at Aqueduct; holds the highest speed figure at today’s distance and ties for fastest dirt speed among today’s starters.
Longshot:
1 – Derek’s Law: Rail post is winning at a18% clip; Drops in class today; he has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Alternate:
6 – Typhoon Fury
Race 7-Female
2 – Munnings Express – Finished in the money in 4 races out of her 4 career starts, winning 2 races; Has a high % winning jockey.
5 – Kay Cup: Finished 2nd vs similar in last race as the favorite but has a high % winning trainer who wins 21% of the races with beaten favorite’s and has a high-percentage jockey.
7 – Hangover Heaven – Finished in the money in 4 races out of her 5 career starts, winning 2 races; has a high-percentage winning jockey.
Longshot:
6 – City Blocks – Won 3 races out of the last 5 starts; Best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters.
Alternate:
4 – Bam’s Bliss Kiss
3 – Accelerating
Race 8–
9 – Amundson – Likes PARX Racing, finishing in the money in 72% of the races, winning 32% of the starts; can handle the distance, finishing in the money in 67% of the races, winning 42% of the starts.
8 – Emerald Forest – Finished in the money in 9 races out of the last 10 starts, winning 3 races; Drops in class today; has a high-percentage winning trainer.
1 – Prince of Truth – Finished 3rd in last race; Rail post is winning at a 20% clip.
Longshot:
6 – Mister J T – Finished 3rd vs similar in last race; Has a high-percentage winning jockey; Has two bullet workouts in a row.
Alternate:
2 – For Some Reason
10 – Sin Nombre
Bet: $20.00 Win: 9 – $10.00 Exacta Box:8/9 – $10.00 Exacta: 9/1,6,8 – $5.00 Exacta Box: 1,8,9
Best Bet of the Day at Aqueduct – 8th Race – #9 – Amundson
Rich’s Picks
Race 1: 1 Mile – Bias: Stalkers, 26% w2w – PP: Rail Discount, 2/3 Best, 4-7 Discount, 8+ Almost Fair
6 – COMBAT MISSION – TLRSP#+ 6 – pace setter, Top Total Pace – Left Arrow
7 – WHERE’S YOUR BOOM – boom or bust, now or never in the 3rd career race
1 – TIZLAWRY – 3rd start after regressing in 2nd start – 1st was a PAR run for this level
4 – LEAVE ME – Yes horse – another boom/bust 3rd race type – Better EP and Fractions
$10 Win: 6
Race 2: 1 Mile – Bias: Stalkers, 26% w2w – PP: Rail Discount, 2/3 Best, 4-7 Discount, 8+ Almost Fair
8 – MOSCONI – most 2nd race upside – 4 works since debut
7 – LIFE’S TOO SHORT – long shot with next most 2nd race upside despite hitting the gate and a slow start in debut
1 – QBITS – 3/3 first timer – would prefer better works
2 – MISSION CRITICAL – tough call over the 3 – but only YES horse and 2nd up
$0.50 Pick 4: 1,2,7,8/1,2,3,7/2,7,10/1,2
Race 3: 6 ½ Furlongs – Bias: Stalkers, 35% w2w – PP: Strong Rail, 2/3 Discount, 4-7 Bonus, 8+ Hard to win
7 – SHEER WILL – TLRSP#+9 – better 5 ways – 2nd up should look like 1st up
3 – MAXALUNA – won last 2 and 4 of 4 at the distance
1 – HEY COOKIE – lone class dropper and strong C ZONE with benefit of the rail
2 – WILL NOT BE SWAYED – Prat and Rice don’t team up often – won 5/10 – ITM 8/10
Exacta Key Box: 7/1,2,3
Race 4: 6 Furlongs – Bias: Early Speed, 51% w2w – PP: Small Rail Bonus, 2-7 Fair, 8+ Small Discount
7 – COUNTER MOVE – YES horse with some ES and lone Pure MSW dropper
2 – SABBY SUNSET – YES Horse with better EP and Fractions – Top TOTAL PACE
10 – ARMY PROUD – another YES horse with TLRSP#+3 – missed by a nose in last at this level
6 – GOOD COP – 2nd off the claim with Linda Rice – improved plenty if first try with the Rice barn – maintenance work for more today
$5 Exacta Key Box: 7/2,6,10
Race 5: 1 1/8 Miles – Bias: Stalkers, 9% w2w – PP: Strong Rail, 2-7 Discount, 8+ Small Bonus
2 – HADRIAN’S WALL – 2nd race upside puts him into Graded Stakes Company
1 – OTTINHO – well bet in debut – tough start – strong rail – Prat and Brown winning at 41%
5 – PRINT – YES horse and the only the was 5 ways better in last – 4 works since – price
7 – DOUBLE ACT – YES horse – been well bet in every race – showed some serious yellow flags of regression in last
$0.50 Pick 4: 1,2/1,2,4/2,4,5,8/1,2,9,10
Race 6: 6 Furlongs – Bias: Early Speed, 51% w2w – PP: Small Rail Bonus, 2-7 Fair, 8+ Small Discount
4 – KERNESS K – 50% go w2w – left arrow – should be on the lead +7 ES
1 – DEREK’S LAW – on the other end +5 LS and Top TOTAL PACE – major Alpha Angle for trainer – Synneflas hits at 38% in 2nd after the claim vs 17% overall
2 – RE MARKABLY – if the 4 isn’t on the lead, this one should be – upside in 3rd up
9 – TARPAULIN – last of the YES horses – fell in last, returns with some to the most back class
$5 Exacta Key Box: 4/1,2,9
Race 7: 6 ½ Furlongs – Bias: Stalkers, 35% w2w – PP: Strong Rail, 2/3 Discount, 4-7 Bonus, 8+ Hard to win
2 – MUNNINGS EXPRESS – Top TOTAL PACE +5 – Top PAR+ – Popping in only other 2nd start
5 – KAY CUP – super consistent – definitely been up against stronger
8 – INTENTIOUS – biggest edge in the race +10 LS
4 – BAM’S BLISS KISS – big overlay – should be on the pace – SIM FAV
Race 8: 6 ½ Furlongs – Bias: Stalkers, 35% w2w – PP: Strong Rail, 2/3 Discount, 4-7 Bonus, 8+ Hard to win
9 – AMUNDSON – drop off the claim for Linda Rice 38% vs 23% overall
1 – PRINCE OF TRUTH – SIM FAV – Top TOTAL PACE – longshot on the strong rail – why not
2 – FOR SOME REASON – 3 SP# increases in a row and should be a part of the early show
10 – SIN NOMBRE – TLRSP# +3 – Better EP in last – tough call over the 8
