English Horse Racing Picks and Analysis
Tom and Rich return to foreign Friday at Ascot Racetrack, a little scouting action in preparation for the Royal Ascot in June.
Ascot Racecourse (Free Ascot Past Performances)
Race 1: Peroni Nastro Azzurro Handicap
Race 2: Peroni Nastro Azzurro EBF Fillies’ Handicap
Race 3: Peroni Nastro Azzurro Victoria Cup
Race 5: Carey Group Handicap
Race 7: Peroni Nastro Azzurro 0.0% Handicap
Ascot Racecourse Tips
22 to 1 Tom’s Tips
Race 1 – 1:30
Peroni Nastro Azzurro Handicap Cl3 (4yo+ 0-95) 1m4f
5 – Saratoga Gold – Draw 2
He hasn’t raced since October, but Charlie Hills horses are running well, with five wins from 25 starts in the past 14 days and 2 winners today at Ascot.
He won off a break last year in class 4 at Goodwood, going a similar distance.
He raced at Ascot without success but maybe good enough this time, coming into the race fresh.
8 – Savvy Knight – Draw 10
He used an all-weather race to prep for this race and ran ok 4th at Kempton.
He won the first three races of his career and then nothing.
He ran at Royal Ascot in a handicap class 2 and ran 4th going 12 furlongs.
The last race showed enough to get a placing here.
He will have to overcome an outside post position.
6 – Green Team – Draw 8
Coming from Dubai, and last raced in a group 2, doing nothing but losing by 14L.
He had one ok race in a handicap in Dubai; the rest are forgettable.
His only a maiden winner at Ayr, but I will take a chance at a reasonable price.
Race 2 – 2:05
Peroni Nastro Azzurro EBF Fillies’ Handicap Cl2 (3yo+) 1m
1 – Julia Augusta – Draw 4
She won the first two starts at 1 mile of her career (one all-weather, one on the turf), then ran in a class 2 handicap and ran 3rd.
Put away to return here. She won her novice on the all-weather for the first start.
She was the favorite in her last race and missed by 1 ½ lengths.
The right spot for the return, and Roger Varian is winning at 19% over the past 14 days.
2 – Don’t Tell Claire – Draw 3
The first start of the season was an average effort on the all-weather at Kempton at a big price.
She has won on the all-weather but has four wins on the turf.
All those wins are at 1 mile.
She’s won at Ascot on the straight course but has five starts and only one placing.
I will take a chance at 12-1 or greater.
10 – Mountain Song – Draw 5
She Won the last start on the all-weather, going 1 mile and has run second in her other three races, which are also on the all-weather.
The last race was the shortest distance run to date, and this one may be a handicapper miler.
The switch to turf shouldn’t be an issue based on her breeding by Sea The Stars, and all these mares off-spring have won on the turf.
Race 3 – 2:40
Victoria Cup (Premier Handicap) Cl2 (4yo+) 7f
5 – Fresh – Draw 11
Ok effort for first start of the season on the all-weather, raced in the back and was pushed along but wasn’t getting to the leaders. Need race.
He has 10 starts at Ascot with 3 wins 2 seconds 1 third .
He’s won 2 races at 7 furlongs from 6 tries.
I think this is a good spot for him
1 – Spycatcher – Draw 6
Won first start of the season at Thirsk 7 furlongs on the soft going.
They were racing him in group races and he ran second to Highfield Princess last May in a group 2 race.
Confidence builder in the last race for bigger thinks to come.
7 – Totally Charming – Draw 13
Average run at the Curragh last out, going 1 mile in a handicap. First race of the season, and he went off as the 5-1 favorite.
He won his last season start at Doncaster, going 7 furlongs in a class 3 handicap.
One run at Royal Ascot was a 9th of 29 horses in a class 2 race at 1 mile.
Great record on the all-weather with five starts, three wins, 1 second, and one third. Still, trying to figure out why they choose to run him here, but 7 furlongs the right distance? Maybe
Race 5 – 3:45
Carey Group Handicap Cl3 (3yo 0-90) 1m2f
3 – Maasai Mara – Draw 7
All his efforts have been ok, with one win at 11 furlongs and a distant second at 12 furlongs.
He ran twice on the turf, his first two starts, and ran 4th at 7 furlongs and 2nd at 1 mile.
Based on the last two efforts, he wants distance, and this is the right spot to get a win on the turf, a distance that may suit him well.
4 – Westeron – Draw 2
He is still a maiden but ran second in his last two races at 8 ½ furlongs and second going 10 furlongs.
None of his effort have been awful running 4th in one race and 5th in the other.
Granted, these were maiden races but we there are maidens in this race.
More distance help him.
5 – Mlle Chanel – Draw 4
Won the first start in novice at 7 furlongs at Chester.
He tried listed company in the next race and ran 6th at 7 furlongs.
He returned to the races; he ran 4th (of 5) in the all-weather run at Newcastle.
The mares off-spring have mainly won in distance races for the distance and the turf may suit this horse in this race.
Race 7 – 4:55
Peroni Nastro Azzurro Handicap Cl4 (4yo+ 0-80) 6f
8 – Coco Bear – Draw 7
Won has two races, both at 6 furlongs and both in class 4 races.
He has been mainly racing at the lower levels of class races in the past but has five wins from 21 starts, and all wins are at 6 furlongs.
Verse this field. I think he gets this third win.
He does get a weight penalty for his wins.
1 – Indian Creek – Draw 10
He had three races in 2023 and 1 win one third and one sixth in his first start.
His last race was at the class 3 level at Thirsk.
He’s been good at this distance, with four wins from 33 starts and 11 in-the-money finishes.
Based on the last two races, running on soft to heavy going, he done well enough to have a good run again at this level.
2 – Mister Bluebird – Draw 2
Ran second in his first start of the season after some issues at the start of the race.
He ran second most of the race and finished second at 7 furlongs.
He has won at Ascot before at this distance.
He doesn’t have a great record at this distance, but I think he is good enough for an in-the-money run off his last effort as long as he is forwardly placed.
Rich’s Ranks
Race 1: Peroni Nastro Azzurro Handicap – 8:30 am eastern
5 – SARATOAG GOLD – loves the distance 7/4-0-1, all others 16/3-0-1
4 – NATHANAEL GREENE – finished 2nd by just ¾ lengths at the distance, 1 ½ and shorter seems right
2 – RHYTHMIC INTENT – should be better in 2nd up, benefits, I think, if the track is upgraded
1 – SIR RUMI – is the top weight, more often than not runs a high-quality race
Race 2: Peroni Nastro Azzurro EBF Fillies’ Handicap – 9:05 am eastern
8 – TIMELESS MELODY – was off for a year and came back to win with ease in first on turf
1 – JULIA AUGUSTA – won debut and only other first up race – like today
3 – BELHAVEN – distance 4/3-0-0, classic third start after a layoff
4 – PERFECT THUNDER – a neck away from winning last two first up runs, now or never
Race 3: Peroni Nastro Azzurro Victoria Cup – 9:40 am eastern
11 – RAINBOW FIRE won three of four at the distance, all on turf, debut was lone miss
5 – FRESH – good success at Ascot, 10/3-2-1, others 12/1-3-1
9 – BIGGLES – Distance 5/2-2-1, Turf 7/3-2-1 – likely to improve 2nd up
18 – REBEL TERRITORY – came off the sidelines to win and his resume suggests more in round 2
Race 5: Carey Group Handicap – 10:45 am eastern
1 – SHAHBAZ – most experienced, room for more in 2nd after a layoff , 4-5 High quality races in 7
3 – MAASAI MARA – always well backed by punters, 3rd up
6 – DASHO LENNIE – all three races have been solid, lone W on AW is the concern
5 – MLLE CHANEL – has a turf win, OK race last out, with more fitness today, maybe
Race 7: Peroni Nastro Azzurro 0.0% Handicap – 11:55 am eastern
2 – MISTER BLUEBIRD – has a 6f win in lone Ascot effort, based on resume, 1st up is an indication of form
8 – COCO BEAR – your all or nothing type at the distance 8/4-0-0
4 – COOPERATION – distance 12/3-3-0, third up and coming off of his best race in a while
5 – SPIRITED GUESS – 2023 form reversal from 2022, but the first two were on AW – can it carry over to grass
