Belmont at Aqueduct Horse Racing Tips, Commentary, Analysis and Suggested Wagers
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Free Belmont at Aqueduct Racing Picks
Terry Hollywood Hay’s Picks
Race 1-Hurdle 2-3/8 M
7 – Awakened – He can either lead or come from behind to win a race, he is two for two at today’s distance and he has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
6 – Freddy Flintshire – He finished 3rd in his last race as the favorite but has a high % winning trainer who wins 24% of the races when bringing a beaten favorite back to race again and he has a high % winning jockey.
5 – Rampoldi Plan – He won his last race in a G1 event and has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Longshot:
1 – L’Imperator – He finished 3rd in his last race and his best turf speed is fastest among today’s starters.
Alternate:
4 – Jimmy P
8 – West Newton
Race 2
3 – Out On Bail – He ran 2nd vs similar in his only start and he has a high % winning and jockey.
7 – Mo Plex – He is a First-time starter whose sire wins 33% of the time with1st time Starters and he has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
5 – Chasing Colton – He is a First-time starter whose Dam has 1 winner from 2 starters, he has a high % winning and trainer and jockey and a good 4F workout on Jun-15.
Longshot:
4 – Classic Ruby – He is a First-time starter whose Dam has 1 winner from 1 starter, his breeding suits today’s sprint distance and she has a high % winning jockey.
Alternate:
2 – Vamonos Vamonos
1 – Sky Masterson
Race 3-Female
6 – Khali Magic – She has won three out of her last four starts, her best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters and she switches to a high % winning jockey.
3 – Cinderella’s Cause – She ran 2nd in her last start and she has a high % winning and trainer and jockey.
5- Racing Colors – She finished 3rd in her last race and she has the highest speed figure at today’s distance.
Longshot:
4 – Krystalheir – She has won two races in a row and is now going for a hat trick and she has a high % winning trainer.
Alternate:
2 – Amity Island
$.50 Pick 4: #3,4,5,6/1,2,3,7/1,2/2,3,10 – Cost $48.00
Race 4-Female
6 – Ms Sedona – She ran 2nd vs similar in her last race at Keenland; she has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
1 – Justdeny – She finished 3rd vs similar in her last race, her best turf speed is fastest among today’s starters and she has a high % winning trainer.
3 – Queens Fable – She finished 3rd in her last race and she has a high % winning trainer and she switches to a high % winning jockey.
Longshot:
7 – Mizoula – She has improved her speed rating in the last three races and has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Race 5-Female
1 – Smokin’ Hot Kitty – She finished 8th in her last race on the turf and now returns to the dirt surface where she had won two in a row, she has the highest speed figure at today’s distance and has a high % winning jockey.
2 – Foxy Cara – She finished 3rd vs similar in her last race and has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
6 – Chasing Daylight – She ran 2nd vs similar in her last race and she has the highest last race speed rating (tie).
Longshot:
3 – Brooklyn Dantz – She won her last race at Aqueduct.
Race 6-Female
2 – Quiescent – She finished in the money in her last four races at Aqueduct, winning the last race and she has the highest speed figure at today’s distance.
3 – Laconia – She finished in the money in her last five races, running 3rd in her last race and she has a high % winning trainer and jockey and she has a good 5F workout on Jun-13.
10 – Linarite – She finished 3rd in her last race and has a high % winning jockey.
Longshot:
6 – First Class Cat – She has won two out of her last four races at Aqueduct and she has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
$.50 Pick 4: #2,3,6,10 /1,2,5,6,9,10/1,7/1,8 – Cost $48.00
Race 7-Female
9 – Neigh Jude – She finished 3rd in her last race, has high % winning jockey Irad Ortiz.
1 – Shehanah – She drops in class today; the rail post is winning at a 23% clip and she can improve while returning to dirt.
5 – Going for Glory – She ran 2nd vs similar in her last race and blinkers added today.
Longshot:
10 – Steppin’ Hawk – She was beaten only 1-1/2 lengths vs similar in her last start, her early speed running style helps chances, so she may improve at the shorter distance and her best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters.
Alternate:
6 – My Kinda Mischief
Race 8-Female
1 – Revalita – She drops in class today; she has a high % winning trainer and jockey and Lasix is added.
7 – Breath Away – She has finished in the money in six out of her last eight races, winning two of the starts and she has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
6 – Alluring Angel – She won her last race at Aqueduct; she switches to a high % winning trainer and jockey and Lasix is added
Longshot:
2 – Towhead – He ran 2nd (on Dirt) in her last race, she has the highest last race speed rating (tie) and he has a high % winning trainer.
Alternate:
4 – Malleymoo
Bet: $16.00 Win: # 1 – $1.00 DD: 1,7/1,3,6,8
Race 9
8 – Gem Mint Ten – He ran 2nd vs similar in his last race, he has the highest speed figure at today’s distance, his best turf speed is fastest among today’s starters, and he has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
1 – Slapintheface – He finished in the money in his last four races, winning the last start, and he has a high % winning jockey.
3 – The Paddock Pastor – He finished 4th in his last race as the favorite but has a high % winning trainer who wins 27% of the races when bringing a beaten favorite back to race again and he has a high % winning jockey.
Longshot:
6 – Laurel Valley – He finished 3rd vs similar in his last race, has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Alternate:
2 – Bettrluckythangood
1 – Bernin Hot
Best Bet of the Day at PARX Racing – 8th Race
1 – Revalita
Rich’s Picks:
Race 1: 2 3/8 Miles – Jumpers
1 – L’IMPERATOR
7 – AWAKENED
5 – RAMPOLDI PLAN
4 – JIMMY P
Race 2: 5 ½ Furlongs – Bias: 2 Races, 1 w2w and 1 Co-Pilot – Both Winners From the Rail
3 – OUT ON BAIL – improvement from debut would be enough – will be forward and Manny is excellent on the lead
7 – MO PLEX – 3 of 3 first time starter – Irad rides
4 – CLASSIC RUBY – 2.6 of 3 points on the scale – May 17th work at Belmont is best of 1ster
5 – CHASING COLTON – 2.7 of 3 points first timer – solid works schedule
Race 3: 1 Mile – Bias: Early Speed, 33% w2w – PP: Rail Discount, 2/3 Bigger Discount, 4-7 Best, 8+ Like the Rail
6 – KHALI MAGIC – how does this one lose?
4 – KRYSTALHEIR – won two in a row – upped SP# in last 4, decent work between races
3 – CINDERELLA’S CAUSE – right distance 11/3-3-3, faced the top pick three times, hammered every time
5 – RACING COLORS – has crazy good late pace at times
Race 4: 1 3/8 Miles Turf: 4 Races, 1 w2w – Closers for the Rest – PP: 2 from posts 2/3 and 8+
1 – JUSTDENY – 3rd up and has some of the most LS – the extra distance should help
6 – MS SEDONA – just missed graduating last out and might have more upside in 3rd career start
7 – MIZOULA – Irad on a horse that got better in both races after her debut
9 – JITTERBUG – going to get turf for the 1st time – Clement is a strong turf trainer
Race 5: 1 Mile – Bias: Early Speed, 33% w2w – PP: Rail Discount, 2/3 Bigger Discount, 4-7 Best, 8+ Like the Rail
1 – SMOKIN’ HOT KITTY – 2 easy wins in a pair of AQ 1 mile races
6 – CHASING DAYLIGHT – just missed at this level last out – pacesetter
2 – FOXY CARA – rallied after stumbling at the start – closer
3 – BROOKLYN DANTZ – 4th of four and the one you should probably bet
Race 6: 6 Furlongs Outer Turf – Bias: Stalkers, 32% w2w – PP: Rail Bonus, 2/3 Big Discount, 4-7 A Little Under Par, 8+ Bonus
6 – FIRST CLASS CAT – Linda Rice first of the claim – horses usually improve
2 – QUIESCENT – TLRSP# +16 – but is a big candidate to regress
1A – MISS BONNIE T – 3 wide through the 1st turn last out, that rarely works, resume says better effort in round two off the sidelines
10 – LINARITE – probably the most consistent horse in the race – 3rd up – faster by almost 2 second is her last
Race 7: 6 Furlongs – Bias: Early Speed, 45% w2w – PP: Rail Big Bonus, 2/3 Big Hit, 4+ Bonus Better Inside than Out
6 – MY KINDA MISCHIEF – maybe the light is coming on? Her best workouts prepping, 3rd up after running much faster with better EP
1 – SHEHANAH – MSW dropper in only 3rd career start – doesn’t need to be much better to top these
10 – STEPPIN’ HAWK – this one will chase for the lead too, cutting back from 6 1/2f could benefit
9 – NEIGH JUDE – decent effort in her last at this level – switch to Irad the difference?
Race 8: 1 Mile Turf – Bias: 8 Races, 1 w2w, Closers – PP: Strong Rail, 2/3 Discount, 4-7 Bad, 8+ Bonus but not as Good as the Rail
6 – ALLURING ANGEL – off for a long time – lowest level of career – Manny Franco and Chad Brown hit at 26% – Alpha for both
1 – REVALITA – another Brown horse at the lowest level of her career – nothing but Grade stakes since coming from France
7 – BREATH AWAY – best turf breeding, 2nd up chance to be much better or the close to the same
8 – SWOOP TO FINISH – another making the second start after a layoff and resume says she’ll improve
Race 9: 1 1/16 Miles Outer Turf – Bias: 7 Races, 2 w2w, Closers for the Rest, Strong Rail, 2/3 Fair, 4-7 Discount and worst, 8+ Discount
3 – THE PADDOCK PASTOR – the most upside in the race with just two starts so far
8 – GEM MINT TEN – usually runs well coming off the sidelines – four maintenance works
10 – EZ ROLL – a closer with Trevor riding – should be a good fit and won’t be too far off the pace here
9 – SONIC SPEED – this guy fires off the bench and just missed at this level last out
