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Terry’s Picks
Belmont At The Big A -4-07-26 – 4-08-26
Race 1-Female
1 – Coquito – Won last race at Aqueduct; Best Dirt Speed is fastest among today’s starters; Has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
6 – Despo’s Dream – Trained by Linda Rice; Has a high % winning jockey.
3 – Floge – Finished 3rd in last race, winning the previous race; Can improve while returning to a sprint.
Longshot:
5 – Jackie the Joker – Finished 3rd in last race; Highest speed figure at today’s distance.
Alternate:
4 – Curlin’s Magic
2 – Troubled Luck
Race 2
1 – Integration – Finished third as the favorite; The trainer wins 19% with beaten favorites; Has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
2 – A Bourbon for Toby – Won 2 races in a row and now goes for a hat trick; High %winning jockey.
3 – Risk Tolerance – Finished in the money in both races at Aqueduct, winning 1 race; Highest last race speed rating; Has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Longshot:
4 – Carson’s Run – Drops in class today; Best turf speed is fastest among today’s starters (tie); Has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Alternate:
5 Jackie the Joker
$.50 Pick 4: 1,2,3,4/2,5,6/6,7/1,2,4,7 – Cost $48.00
Race 3
6 – Mutaawid – Won 2 races out of 2 starts at Aqueduct; Best Turf Speed is fastest among today’s starters; Has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
2 – Bettrluckythangood – Ran 2nd in last race; High %winning trainer and jockey.
5 – I Am I Said – Won last race last race in GB before coming to USA; Has a high % winning trainer and jockey; Lasix added.
Longshot:
4 – Likeness – Won last race at Gulfstream Park; Has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Alternate:
3 – Miztertonic
Race 4-Female
7 – Tough Street – Ran 2nd in last race; Highest speed figure at today’s distance; Best Dirt Speed is fastest among today’s starters; Trainer and jockey has high win rates.
6 – Helen’s Revenge – Won 4 races out of the last 6 starts; Highest last race speed rating; Trainer and jockey have high win rates.
2 – Khali Magic: Finished 3rd in last race: Drops in class today; Has high % winning trainer and jockey.
Longshot:
4 – Howling Wind– Likes Aqueduct, finishing in the money in 50% of the races, winning 14% of the starts; At today’s distance; finishing in the money in 50% of the races, winning 25% of the starts.
Alternate:
3 – Princess Becca
5 – Carol T
Race 5
7 – White Smoke Rising – Ran 2nd vs similar in only start; Highest last race speed rating; Has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
4 – Disparate Impact: First time starter; Trainer and jockey have high win rates.
2 – Cite Your Sources – First time starter whose Sire wins 20% with 1st time Starters; Dam has 1 winner from 2 starters; Breeding suits today’s sprint distance; Has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Longshot:
1 – Onepac – Finished 3rd vs similar in last; Rail post is winning at a 20% clip.
Alternate:
3 – Party Animal
5 – Chess Match
$.50 Pick 4: 1,2,4,7 /4,6,7/2,3/2,4,6,8 – Cost $48.00
Race 6-Female
6 – Loveontheleftbank – Finished in the money in 4 races out of 6 career starts; Trainer and jockey have high win rates.
4 – Mermaid – Finished 3rd vs tougher in last race; Drops in class today; Best Turf Speed is fastest among today’s starters (tie); Jockey has high win rates.
7 – Playing Games – First time starter whose Breeding suggests she will like the grass; Has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Longshot:
5 – Just Tell Anne: Highest last race speed rating; Best turf speed is fastest among today’s starters (tie); Trainer and Jockey have high win rates.
Alternate:
1 – Tiz the Lady
Race 7
2 – Village Person – Won 2 out of 3 career races; Trainer and Jockey have high win rates.
3 – Ten Cent Town – Won last race at Aqueduct; Has a high % winning trainer and switches to a high % jockey.
7 – Disarmed – Likes Aqueduct, finishing in the money in 44% of the races, winning 17% of the starts; At today’s distance; finishing in the money in 50% of the races, winning 25% of the starts.
Longshot:
8 – Lotsa Trouble – Finished 3rd in last race; Can improve while returning to a sprint.
Alternate:
5 – Thrill of It
1 – Share the Ludt
Bet: $20.00 Win: 2 – $10.00 Exacta Box:2/3 – $10.00 Exacta: 2/3,7,8 – $5.00 Exacta Box: 2,3,7
Race 8
4 – Chips and Fish – Finished 2nd in both career starts; Breeding suggests he will like the grass.
6 – Bold Statement –Has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
2 – Jet Off – Drops in class today; Best Turf Speed is fastest among today’s starters; Has a high % winning trainer who wins 26% of the Maiden Claiming races.
Longshot:
8 – Rules of the Road – Has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Alternate:
9 – Crowbar Artist
10 – Trail Blaze
Best Bet of the Day at Tampa Bay Downs – 7th Race – #2 – Village Person
Rich’s Picks
Race 1: 7 Furlongs – Stalkers, 43% w2w – PP: Strong Outside In
1 – COQUITO – hopefully all the money flows to the 6 and we get better odds +6 TLRSP# w/ three SP# increases and top Total Pace +8
6 – DESPO’S DREAM – Outside post and Standout C ZONE
5 – JACKIE THE JOKER – enough of an early pace edge to have a shot at going w2w
3 – FLOGE – last race was faster early – on and off horse – off in last – let’s get a price
Race 2: 1 3/16 Outer Turf – 4 Races – Closers, Rail and 8+ Are Best, 4-7 Fair, 2/3 Nada
1 – INTEGRATION – unbeaten in 2 on AQ grass – in for a check as he’s faced tons better
3 – RISK TOLERANCE – Brown and Prat – upside – only 2nd time making 2 starts in a row – finally healthy
5 – BIG BLUE LINE – YES horse with value – why not with the heavy hitters up top
4 – CARSON’S RUN – tough call over the 2 – more back class and 1st Lasix
$0.50 Pick 4: 1,3,5/2,3,5,6/1,4,6,7/2,7
Race 3: 1 3/8 Miles Turf – 6 Races, Closers, 1/6 w2w – PP: Rail and 4-7 Solid, 2/3 weak, 8+ None
5 – I AM I SAID – British Invader with best breeding and probably best win
2 – BETTRLUCKYTHANGOOD – topping the list in just about every way
3 – MIZTERTONIC – fired for the win with a similar break (Nov-May) last year
6 – MUTAAWID – undefeated in a pair on AQ grass – including a career best
$5 Exacta Key Box: 5/2,3,6
Race 4: 7 Furlongs – Stalkers, 43% w2w – PP: Strong Outside In
6 – HELEN’S REVENGE – TLRSP#+ 5 – with a few dominate wins in a row – very concerned about a peak effort in last
1 – CITY BLOCKS – YES horse with better EP/FRACTIONs and drops – winner 2/3 at the distance – top C ZONE
7 – TOUGH STREET – been off a while – best average race and most upside – works are eh
4 – HOWLING WIND – out in the lead where 43% – Richard Petty go w2w
$0.50 Trifecta Box: 1,4,6,7
Race 5: 6 ½ Furlongs – Stalkers, 44% w2w – PP: Strong Rail, 2/3 Discount, 4+ Small Bonus
7 – WHITE SMOKE RISING – 2nd race upside that could reach stakes level stuff – horse he lost to came back to win and allowance
2 – CITE YOUR SOURCES – 3.0 firster with a back bullet
6 – IF EVER – 2nd rated 1ster – barely over the…
4 – DISPARATE IMPACT – 3rd rated 1ster for Brown and Prat
$0.50 Pick 4: 2,4,6,7/3,4,5,7/2,3/2,4,5
Race 6: 1 1/16 Miles Turf – 13 races, Stalkers, 2 w2w – PP: Outside In and None From Rail
3 – BATTLE WINNER – 2nd Race PARABILITY well past PAR
4 – MERMAID – even money SIM FAV and Top TOTAL PACE +5 – MSW dropper
5 – JUST TELL ANNE – just needs to build a little on his last race in 2nd up – did so in only other second start
7 – PLAYING GAMES – going to give the decently bred Brown debuter a chance with Prat
$5 Exacta Key Box: 3/4,5,6,7
Race 7: 6 ½ Furlongs – Stalkers, 44% w2w – PP: Strong Rail, 2/3 Discount, 4+ Small Bonus
2 – VILLAGE PERSON – Top C ZONE, Top TOTAL PACE in a chaos race – seen too many win
3 – TEN CENT TOWN – SIM FAV – Brad Cox horse with some of the most upside and strong C ZONE
8 – LOTSA TROUBLE – probably the most consistent in the field – last race was faster by about a half second
5 – THRILL OF IT – TLRSP# + 5 with a couple of bullet maintenance works since
Race 8: 1 1/16 Miles Turf – Closers, 22% w2w – PP: Rail and 8+ Discount, 2-7 Best
4 – CHIPS AND FISH – TLRSP# +4 with 3rd race bounce back ability
2 – JET OFF – only YES horse with aggressive EP edge = must have
5 – DARE DEFYING – biggest class dropper – only 3rd start
8 – RULES OF THE ROAD – looks like he’s probably better than the rest?
$0.50 Trifecta Box: 2,4,5,8
