Rich’s Belmont at the Big A Ranks deliver eight sharp races of handicapping insight blending data, bias trends, and betting strategy. Using Smart Sheet pace analytics and the Profile of a Winner model, Rich breaks down each race with expert commentary, precise picks, and suggested wagers — helping you uncover value and target winners on both turf and dirt at one of New York’s most competitive tracks.
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Belmont at the Big A Ranks — by Rich
Race 1 – 6 Furlongs Outer Turf
Bias: Stalkers | 29% Wire-to-Wire
Post Bias: Rail Discount, 2–7 Bonus, 8+ Worst
Picks:
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2 – Felonious: First-time starter with a back bullet.
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4 – Uncle Aldo: Could bounce back in third career start.
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5 – Brooklyn Styles: Just missed last out, +5 TLRSP# and +5 improvement.
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1 – Mr. Mashigina: Another 1st timer with a solid work tab.
Race 2 – 1 1/16 Miles Turf
Bias: Closers | 17% Wire-to-Wire
Post Bias: Inside 3 Bonus, 4–7 Slight Advantage, 8+ Discount
Picks:
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3 – Tim and Sam: +7 TLRSP#, Top Total Pace, Top C-Zone horse.
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1 – Kuleana: Potential pacesetter, one of only two YES horses, strong recent work.
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2 – Twirling Lad: Needs a rebound after a poor last effort.
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6 – Fazzone: First-time starter with average works; others look weaker.
Suggested Wager:
$0.50 Pick 4 – 1,3 / 1,3,4,5,6 / 2,7 / 3,5,7,8,9
Race 3 – 1 Mile (Dirt)
Bias: Early Speed | 44% Wire-to-Wire
Post Bias: Strong Rail, 2–7 Slightly Under Par, 8+ Fair
Picks:
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3 – Furry Fox: Speed + First Lasix = potent combo; biggest class dropper.
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1 – Spirit of Esther: Held speed longer in last; sharp maintenance work between.
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4 – Another Cleeshay: Big SIM favorite; steady works; faced better fields.
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6 – Handle On You: Top Total Pace (+6); biggest late speed edge (+12 LS).
Suggested Wagers:
$5 Exacta Key Box – 3 / 1,4,5,6
$12 Win – 3
Race 4 – 6 Furlongs (Dirt)
Bias: Early Speed | 30% Wire-to-Wire
Post Bias: Rail Bonus, 2/3 Discount, 4–7 Bonus, 8+ Big Discount
Picks:
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2 – With The Angels: 4-for-4 undefeated, first Lasix, Top LS +6, Top Total Pace +6.
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7 – Filly Crystal: Speed edge; 7-for-10 lifetime; won lone trip at BAQ.
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6 – Practical Lov: Big SIM Fav; improving works.
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5 – Sarir: Class dropper; late runner in mid-forward field.
Race 5 – 7 Furlongs (Dirt)
Bias: Early Speed | 56% Wire-to-Wire
Post Bias: Rail Discount, 2/3 Fair, 4–7 Bonus, 8+ Fair
Picks:
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3 – Ms Sophistication: 2nd race parability; strong work between starts.
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5 – Quiddity: Just missed in debut; highest 2nd race parability.
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9 – Britain: Top-rated first-timer; back bullet work.
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8 – Backstreets: Fastest recent work (213 on Sep 27).
Suggested Wagers:
$0.50 Pick 4 – 3,5,9 / 1,2,3,8 / 2,8 / 2,3,4,5
$0.50 Trifecta Box – 3,5,8,9
Race 6 – 7 Furlongs (Dirt)
Bias: Early Speed | 56% Wire-to-Wire
Post Bias: Rail Discount, 2/3 Fair, 4–7 Bonus, 8+ Fair
Picks:
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2 – Spun Size: Improved early pace; pair of works for added stamina.
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1 – I’m Buzzy: +8 LS edge; sharp in third start off layoff.
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8 – Melle Mel: Top Total Pace +5; sharp bullet work.
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3 – Sailaway: SIM Fav; improved PAR and second-up potential.
Suggested Wager:
$0.50 Trifecta Box – 1,2,3,8
Race 7 – 6 Furlongs Outer Turf
Bias: Stalkers | 29% Wire-to-Wire
Post Bias: Rail Discount, 2–7 Bonus, 8+ Worst
Picks:
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2 – Niagara Skyline: +3 TLRSP#, improving speed; question is Woodbine form transfer.
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8 – Innate: Only one poor race in five; SIM Fav, top Total Pace.
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3 – Hilarious Affair: 2-for-1-0-1 at BAQ turf; strong works between races.
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4 – Finestkind: Only two starts but strong upside.
Suggested Wager:
$0.50 Trifecta Box – 2,3,4,8
Race 8 – 1 Mile Turf
Bias: Closers | 2 of 8 Wire-to-Wire
Post Bias: Rail Fair, 2/3 Discount, 4+ Bonus (Outside > Inside)
Picks:
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3 – Belle of Georgia: Top 2nd race parability; two sharp works.
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2 – Take Home Gold: Top-rated 1st timer (2.95/3); strong stats vs. field.
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4 – Mis Brunellas: Needs cleaner break; top 2nd race parability.
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5 – Just Aloof: Top Jy/Tr combo; second-rated first-timer.
Suggested Wager:
$0.50 Trifecta Box – 2,3,4,5
