Belmont at the Big “A” Tips, Commentary, Analysis and Suggested Wagers
Guaranteed Tip Sheet Free Track: Belterra Park – https://www.guaranteedtipsheet.com/index.aspx?afid=hrt
Free Belmont at the Big “A” Picks
Terry’s Picks
Belmont at the Big A – 10 -02-25
Race 1-Female
2 – Tapit Back– She is a first-time starter whose Dam has 2 winners from 2 starters and a good 4F workout (Sep-27).
7 – Oscar Bound – Drops in class today; Highest last race speed rating; can improve while returning to dirt and she has a high % winning trainer.
3 – Rest Ashore – Drops in class; may improve returning to dirt. Trained by a high-percentage trainer who wins 22% of Maiden Claiming races.
Longshot:
1 – Peace of Gold – Rail post is winning at 23% clip.
Race 2
7 – Underbidder – He is a first-time starter whose breeding suggests he will like the grass, bred well for route distance and has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
1 – Jet Off – He has an early foot, drops in class today and has a high % winning trainer.
8 – Copa de Plata – He has a high % winning trainer and jockey and can improve at the longer distance.
Longshot:
6 – Capo Di Tutti – He has a high % winning trainer whose horse wins 25% in the 1st race at a route, has a high % winning jockey.
Alternate:
5 – Bellamy
$.50 Pick 4: 1,7/2,4,6,7,8/2,6/3,4,5,8,12– Cost $50.00
Race 3
2 – Tarpaulin – Won last race; Highest last race speed rating and both trainer and jockey have high win rates.
6 – Notah – He has finished in the money in 6 races out of 7 starters at Aqueduct, switches to a high % winning trainer and has a high % winning jockey and a good 4F workout (Sep-18).
8 – Free Dance – He has won his last two races in a row and now goes for a hat trick, and he has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Longshot:
7 – Flying Liam – He ran 2nd in last race and has a high % winning jockey.
Alternate:
4 – Crushed It
5 – Celestial Glaze
Race 4
6 – Behold the King – Finished 2nd as the favorite in a similar race last time. Trained by a high-percentage trainer (26%-win rate with beaten favorites), he has the fastest turf speed and top last race speed rating among today’s starters.
2 – Special Envoy– He is a first-time starter; Well Bred and has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
3 – Epic Desire – He a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Longshot:
8 – Oban – He is a first-time starter whose breeding suggests he will like the grass and he has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Alternate:
11 – Senior Lender
7 – Chambersville
Race 5-Female
3 – Just Philtored – She is undefeated in 3 career starts. Both her trainer and jockey have strong win rates. Has a good 4F workout (Sep-27)
4 – Should’ve – She won her debut race, she has a high % winning trainer who won 27% of the 2YO races a horse a horse he trains runs in and she has a high % winning jockey.
8 – Royal Testament – She won last race; she has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Longshot:
5 – Final Accord – Won her debut race. Both trainer and jockey have high win rates.
Alternate:
12 – Bella Knows
$.50 Pick 4: 3,4,5,8,12/3,9/3,8/1,2,3,5,11 – Cost $50.00
Race 6
9 – Master of Arms – Placed in 7 of last 8 starts (1 win, 2nd last out); drops in class today; strong trainer and jockey stats; recent bullet 4F workout (Sep-27).
3 – Forgiving Spirit – He switches to a high % winning trainer who won 39% of the races when dropping a horse after claiming a horse and switches to a high % winning jockey.
4 – Manta Rey – Has a high % winning trainer who 24% of the starts in the 1st race after claiming a horse and likes the distance.
Longshot:
1 – Fitzpatrick – Drops in class today; The rail post is winning at 23% clip and likes distance.
Alternate:
6 – Rabbit Hound
Race 7-Female
8 – Grayosh – She has a win at Aqueduct, drops in class today. Both her trainer and jockey have strong win rates.
3 – Immensitude – Ran 2nd in last race, can improve at the shorter distance and has the highest speed figure at today’s distance.
2 – Fun With Flags – She finished 3rd in last race. Both her trainer and jockey have strong win percentages.
Longshot:
9 – Brocknardini – She has a high % winning trainer and jockey; Likes the distance.
Alternate:
5 – Allamericanbeauty
Bet: $20.00 Win: 8 – $10.00 Exacta Box:3/8 – $10.00 Exacta Box:8/2,3,9 – $5.00 Exacta Box: 2,3,8
Race 8-Female
1 – Garden of Grace – Drops in class today; her trainer wins 26% of maiden claiming race debuts, and she has the fastest turf speed in this field.
5 – Five Dozen Roses – She finished 3rd vs similar in last race. Both her trainer and jockey have strong win percentages.
2 – Tahila – She drops in class today; Trainer who horses win 50% of the races when taking a horse from maiden to maiden claiming race.
Longshot:
3 – Fifi La Fume – She has a high % winning trainer and a good 4F workout (Sep-29).
Alternate:
11 – Froghollowsummer
Best Bet of the Day at Aqueduct – 7th Race – #8 – Grayosh
Rich’s Picks
Race 1: 6 Furlongs – Bias: Stalkers, 22 w2w – PP: Inside Out, None 8+
4 – CAITLINS THREES – possible upside in 2nd career start – decently bet in debut
7 – OSCAR BOUND – speed, cut back in distance and TLRSP#+ 8
1 – PEACE OF GOLD – biggest in race edge – almost 2 lengths LS and Top Total Pace +6
2 – TAPIT BACK – 1st timer versus all noes
$0.50 Trifecta Box: 1,2,3,7
Race 2: 1 1/16 Miles Outer Turf – Early Speed, 1/6 w2w – PP: Outside In – None inside 3
2 – BOLD STATEMENT – Top Rated 1st Timer vs all noes and 1 maybe 5
4 – OMAHA STORM – the maybe w/ TLRSP#+4 and 2nd race parability
7 – UNDERBIDDER – 2nd rated 1st timer – Brown and Prat
6 – CAPO DI TUTTI – another 2nd race parabilty type – just needs a better start
$0.50 Pick 4: 2,4,7/2,7/2,6,7/2,3,5,8,12
$5 Exacta Key Box: 2/4,6,7
3: 7 Furlongs – Bias: Early Speed, 7/13 w2w – PP: Inside 3 Discount, 4-7 Best, 8+ Bonus
7 – FLYING LIAM – could be close to the pace with top LP and Top Total Pace +9
2 – TARPAULIN – TLRSP#+ 3 – three works between races – worried about regression
4 – CRUSHED IT – speed and fade in 1st up – could be better in 2nd up
5 – CELESTIAL GLAZE – good chance to be on the lead – hasn’t done so well at AQ
Race 4: 1 1/16 Miles Turf – Bias: Closers, 1/13 w2w – PP: Rail Bonus, 2/3 Discount, 4-7 Bonus, 8+ Discount
7 – CHAMBERSVILLE – 2nd race upside – Parability with a bullet work
2 – SPECIAL ENVOY – $1Million 1st timer for Brown works are OK
6 – BEHOLD THE KING – TLRSP+14 – anything close to that and he wins – Only YES
8 – OBAN – 2nd rated 1st timer – but not my much
$0.50 Trifecta Box: 2,6,7,8
Race 5: 6 Furlongs Outer Turf – Bias: Stalkers, 29% w2w – PP: Rail Discount, 2/3 Smaller Discount. 4-7 Best, 8+ None
5 – FINAL ACCORD – 2nd race parability is borderline triple digit speed figures
3 – JUST PHILTORED – Top Total Pace – undefeated in three
12 – BELLA KNOWS – all sorts of issues in debut at Toga and still won
2 – SNAPPY COMEBACK – any improvement from first turf race would be good enough
$0.50 Pick 4: 2,3,5,8,12/3,9/2,3,8/1,2,11
$0.50 Trifecta Box: 2,3,5,12
Race 6: 6 Furlongs – Bias: Stalker, 22% w2w – PP: Inside Out
9 – MASTER OF ARMS – TLRSP#+8 – SIM FAV of 1/2 odds – Pacesetter, +10 LS edge
3 – FORGIVING SPIRIT – comes off the bench hot – OK works
1 – FITZPATRICK – solid works between races
4 – MANTA REY – last of the YES horses with better EP and Fractions
Race 7: 1 1/16 Miles Turf – Bias: Closers, 1/13 w2w – PP: Rail Bonus, 2/3 Discount, 4-7 Bonus, 8+ Discount
2 – FUN WITH FLAGS – only 2nd time in her career making two starts in a row – breeding is there
3 – IMMENSITUDE – TLRSP#+4 – SIM FAV and Top Total Pace – better EP in her last
8 – GRAYOSH – should be better in the 2nd up
4 – AVENUE NIEL – very consistent – showed explosive LP in her last
$5 Exacta Key Box: 2/3,4,8
Race 8: 6 Furlongs Outer Turf – Bias: Stalkers, 29% w2w – PP: Rail Discount, 2/3 Smaller Discount. 4-7 Best, 8+ None
1 – GARDEN OF GRACE – MSW Dropper – 1st time 3rd up – boom or bust
2 – TAHILA – TLRSP#+4 – a pair of thirds in 2 at the distance and another MSW dropper
11 – FROGHOLLOWSUMMER – a ton of ES as Lone E +7 ES
5 – FIVE DOZEN ROSES – maybe better in 2nd turf try
