Belmont at the Big “A” Tips, Commentary, Analysis and Suggested Wagers
Guaranteed Tip Sheet Free Track: Remington Park – https://www.guaranteedtipsheet.com/index.aspx?afid=hrt
Free Belmont at the Big “A” Picks
Terry’s Picks
Belmont at the Big A – 10 -09-25
Race 1-Female
2 – Scythian – Finished in the money in 4 races out of her 5 career starts, winning 2; She has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
1 – Can’t Fool Me – Won last race; likes the distance and she has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
5 – Collaboration – Highest speed figure at today’s distance; Best turf speed is fastest among today’s starters. Trained by a high-percentage trainer and jockey.
Longshot:
4 – North End Lady – Finished in the money in 2 races out of her last 3 starts, winning 1 race and she has a high % winning jockey.
Alternate:
7 – Snowy Evening
Race 2
5 – Spikezone – Placed in top positions in 4 consecutive starts, winning twice. Last race finishing 3rd as the favorite. Has a high % winning trainer who wins 26% of the races with beaten favorite’s and has a high-percentage jockey.
3 – Acoustic Ave – He won 3 races out of the last 4 starts, likes the distance and has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
6 – Over and Ollie – Won 2 races out of the last 4 starts, Drops in class today: Has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Longshot:
1 – El Grande O – Finished in the money in 8 races out of her 10 starts at Aqueduct, winning 4: Trained by Linda Rice and ridden by Flavien Prat
Alternate:
2 – Nova Rags
4 – Runninsonofagun
Bet: $20.00 Win: 5 – $10.00 Exacta Box:3/5 – $10.00 Exacta: 5/1,3,6 – $5.00 Exacta Box: 3,5,6
$.50 Pick 4: 3,5/3,4,8/1,5,6,8/4,6,7,8 – Cost $48.00
Race 3-Female
8 – Twirling Lulu– She likes the turf finishing 3rd in her only race on the turf. Trained by a high-percentage trainer who wins 22% of races when bringing a horse back after a 90+ day break.
3 – Lady Angelina – Finished 3rd vs similar (on Dirt) in only start, may improve while trying grass she has a high % winning trainer and a bullet 5F workout (Sep-30).
4 – No Ordinary Love –Trained by a high-percentage trainer and ridden by a high-percentage jockey.
Longshot:
7 – Sassetti – Beaten only 1-1/2 lengths vs similar in last start and she has the best turf speed among today’s starters.
Alternate:
9 – Aperitif
8 – Twirling Lulu
Race 4
8 – Frizzante – Ran 2nd vs similar in last race. Trained by a high-percentage trainer (36%-win rate in the 1st race after claiming a horse) and has a high % winning jockey.
5 – Leftembehind – He ran 2nd vs similar in last race; Highest last race speed rating and has a high % winning trainer.
6 – Who’s the King – Switches to a high % winning jockey, he a high % winning trainer and a good 3F workout (Oct-04).
Longshot:
1 – Brave Bear – He won last race at Aqueduct and he has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Alternate:
4 – Vigano
3 – Leading Contender
Race 5–
8 – Bod Beach has placed in all 4 starts, was runner-up last time against similar competition, shares the fastest dirt speed today, and is paired with a top-winning jockey.
6 – Neigh Baby – Ran 2nd vs similar in last race; Highest last race speed rating; Best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters (tie); Has a good 4F workout (Oct-04).
7 – Hong Kong Phooey – Finished 3rd vs similar in only start and he a high % winning trainer.
Longshot:
4 – Fort Griffin – Finished 3rd vs similar in only start and he has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Alternate:
5 – Mo Curls
$.50 Pick 4: 4,6,7,8/1,6/5,7,8/1,5,9,12 – Cost $48.00
Race 6-Female
6 – Purloin – She finished 3rd in last race, winning the prior race. Trained by a high-percentage trainer who wins 25% of races in the 2nd race after claiming a horse and jockey have strong win rates.
1 – Adrian – Ran 2nd in last race; Rail post is winning at a 30% clip and he has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
4 – Big Air – Ran 2nd vs tougher in last race; Drops in class today; Can improve while returning to a route. Both her trainer and jockey have strong win percentages.
Longshot:
5 – Tower Twenty-Two – Finished 3rd as the favorite in a similar race last time. Trained by a high-percentage trainer (31%-win rate with beaten favorites); Likes the distance.
Alternate:
7 – Circuit Court
2 – That’s Funny
Race 7–
8 – Alexis Zorba – Ran 2nd vs similar in last race; Highest last race speed rating (tie); High % winning trainer.
7 – Let It Ride – Drops in class today; Best Turf Speed is fastest among today’s starters; Switches to a high % jockey and has a high % winning trainer.
5 – Spoken Bluntly – Finished in the money in 5 races out of her 6 starts at Aqueduct, winning 2 at today’s distance: He a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Longshot:
2 – Blown Cover – He won last race at Aqueduct, he has a high % winning trainer and a bullet 4F workout (Sep-30).
Alternate:
3 – Musical Maestro
Race 8–
1 – Sunday Boy – Beaten only 3/4 lengths vs similar in last start after having trouble at the start and has a high % winning trainer.
12 – Make a Prediction – Finished 3rd vs similar in last race; Best Turf speed is faster than the Avg Winning Speed and he a high % winning jockey.
9 – Coach Ryan – Trained by a high-percentage trainer who wins 32% of races in the 2nd route race runs in and his jockey have strong win rates.
Longshot:
5 – A Little At First – Trained by a high-percentage trainer who wins 17% of races in the 1st route race runs in, his jockey have strong win rates and best turf speed is fastest among today’s starters.
Alternate:
7 – Smartkenzie
Best Bet of the Day at Aqueduct – 2nd Race – #5 – Spikezone
Rich’s Picks
Race 1: 1 1/16 Miles Turf – Bias: Closers, 15% w2w – PP: Inside Out
1 – CAN’T FOOL ME – rail, top closer, Sim Fav – top C Zone – looks like a good fit
2 – SCYTHIAN – likely to impress in 2nd up and definitely been against tougher
7 – SNOWY EVENING – top total pace with better EP last out
4 – NORTH END LADY – tough call over the 5 – but bullet work between race and will be better in round 2 off the bench
$8 Win: 1
Race 2: 6 Furlongs – Bias: Stalkers, 29% w2w – PP: Rail Bonus, 2/3 Discount, 4-7 Best, 8+ Worst
5 – SPIKEZONE – Left Arrow pacesetter with best C Zone – won lone AQ run
4 – RUNNINSONOFAGUN – even money SIM FAV with triple digit speed figure ability
3 – ACOUSTIC AVE – really consistent and loves the distance 12/6-1-3 – all others 10/2-2-2
6 – OVER AND OLLIE – drops from a GI and has more back class than the 1 or 2
$0.50 Pick 4: 3,4,5,6/4,7,8,9/5,8/5,6,7
Race 3: 6 Furlongs Outer Turf – Bias: Stalkers, 25% w2w – PP: Rail Discount, 2-7 Best, 8+ None
4 – NO ORDINARY LOVE – might not be the best horse but best with a mid draw
9 – APERITIF – TLRSP# +3 – 3 SP# increases – post hurts
8 – TWIRLING LULU – speed with first lasix and scratch moves her into prime PP
7 – SASSETTI – Only YES horse – has to be in your picks – but the first time scares me
Race 4: 1 1/8 Miles – Bias: Stalkers, 2/6 w2w – PP: None from Rail, 2/3 Fair, 4-7 Discount, 8+ By Far the Best
8 – FRIZZANTE – 3rd up and just missed at this level last out – fits bias
5 – LEFTEMBEHIND – TLRSP#+7 SIM FAV and Top PAR+
1 – BRAVE BEAR – Top Total Pace with strong C ZONE – won last and resume says more to come in 2nd up
3 – LEADING CONTENDER – going to close – Tom horse win – maybe – but ITM 5/5 at the distance
Race 5: 6 Furlongs – Bias: Stalkers, 29% w2w – PP: Rail Bonus, 2/3 Discount, 4-7 Best, 8+ Worst
7 – HONG KONG PHOOEY – 2nd race parability potential goes way past par
5 – MO CURLS – highest rated firster vs all noes and maybes
6 – NEIGH BABY – missed by a neck at this level last out – better ATB with maintenance word
10 – LIFE IS GRAVY – going to take a flyer here – Jun 27 work at Bellmont 4f in 47.3 the 2/100 says this horse might have some hidden talent
$0.50 Pick 4: 5,6,7,10/4,6/2,5,6,7/1,5,12
Race 6: 1 Mile – Bias: Early Speed, 48% w2w – PP: Rail Big Bonus, 2/3 Fair, 4-7 Discount, 8+ Bonus
4 – BIG AIR – TLRSP# +3 – SIM FAV – pacesetter, Lone E with Best C ZONE and Top Total Pace
6 – PURLOIN – biggest in race edge of +7 LS – AQ 2/1-0-1
1 – ADRIAN – huge rail edge – clearly best on dirt 5/1-3-0 and solid maintenance work
7 – CIRCUIT COURT – maybe horse – but speed with 1st Lasix *- love that combo
$5 Exacta Key Box: 4/1,5,6,7
Race 7: 6 Furlongs Outer Turf – Bias: Stalkers, 25% w2w – PP: Rail Discount, 2-7 Best, 8+ None
6 – DEVIL IN DISGUISE – boom or bust making 2 starts in a row for the 1st time – bullet work
2 – BLOWN COVER – highly consistent – just won his 1st time on AQ turf and bullet since
5 – SPOKEN BLUNTLY – SIM FAV – Pacesetter – should go forward and won last 3rd up w2w – looking to do the same today
7 – LET IT RIDE – Top Total Pace horse – Top Par + and I trust Line Maker David Aragona
$5 Exacta Key Box: 6/2,5,7,8
Race 8: 1 1/16 Miles Turf – Bias: Closers, 15% w2w – PP: Inside Out
5 – A LITTLE AT FIRST – TLRSP# so 2nd race Parability makes an even larger gap
12 – MAKE A PREDICTION – YES horse – just missed in last and upped SP# in every race
1 – SUNDAY BOY – all sorts of early problems and just missed in his last and first on grass – better start and best post help
9 – COACH RYAN – 2nd race parability for a horse that was well bet in debut
$0.50 Trifecta Box: 1,5,9,12
