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Belmont at the Big A Picks and Analysis – September 18, 2025

Belmont at the Big A Horse Racing Tips, Commentary, Analysis and Suggested Wagers

Guaranteed Tip Sheet Free Track: Horseshoe Indianapolis – https://www.guaranteedtipsheet.com/index.aspx?afid=hrt

Free Belmont at the Big A Picks

Terry’s Picks:

Belmont at the Big A – 9 -18-25

Race 1

7 – Hidden Path – He finished 3rd in his last race and both trainer and jockey have high win rates.

3 – Zarak the Brave – He finished in the money in his last 2 races, finishing 2nd the last start and he performs well on the turf.

8 – Welshman – He won his last race; Highest last race speed rating; has a high % winning trainer and jockey.

Longshot:

9 – Travesuras – He finished in the money in his last 9 races out of 10 starts, winning 2 races, and he has a high % winning trainer and jockey.

Alternate:

2 – Swore

Race 2-Female

8 – Yo Leven – Drops in class, switches to a top jockey and trainer with a 47%-win rate in second races after claiming. Has the highest speed figure at today’s distance and is the fastest starter on dirt.

7 – She’s Complicated – She finished in the money in 3 races out of 5 starts at Aqueduct; Drops in class today; she has a high % winning trainer and jockey.

1 – Spirit of Esther – Rail post is winning at a 25% clip; Can improve while returning to dirt; Early speed running style helps chances, so the shorter distance will be a plus.

Longshot:

2 – Toxic Girl – She likes PARX Racing, finishing in the money in 56% of the races, winning 11% of the starts and distance will not be a problem as she has finished in the money in 67% of the races, winning 17% of the starts.

Alternate:

3 – Cha Cha Wren

4 – Political Spin

Race 3-Female

2 – Giuliana’s Dream – Tried turf in her last race without success and returns to dirt; Early speed running style helps chances and is trained and ridden by a high-percentage team.

3 – Red Velvet Cake – First-time starter whose Dam has 1 winner from 1 starter and 1 stakes winner and Breeding suits today’s sprint distance.

5 – Sunshine Lily – Her best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters and she has a high % winning jockey.

Longshot:

8 – Patience N Grace – She has the highest last race speed rating, can improve while returning to a sprint and blinkers are added today.

Alternate:

7 – Brokealltherules

4 – Bodegas

$.50 Pick 4: 2,3,5,7,8/4,8/2,5,8,9,10/7,9 – Cost $50.00

Race 4

4 – Innate – Finished in the money 3 out of 4 career starts, winning 1 race, best turf speed is fastest among today’s starters, and both trainer and jockey have high win rates.

8 – Bosun – He has won his last two races in a row and now goes for a hat trick, and he has a high % winning trainer and jockey.

7 – Flat to Da Mat – He likes PARX Racing, finishing in the money in 67% of the races, winning 33% of the starts and distance will not be a problem as she has finished in the money in 100% of the races, winning 33% of the starts.

Longshot:

3 – Feltrinelli – He drops in class today, he has a high % winning trainer and jockey and Lasix is added.

Alternate:

5 -Sesame Seed Bagel

6 – Marcus Giftl

Race 5-Female

9 – Fraudster – Finished 3rd vs similar in last race; Best Turf Speed is fastest among today’s starters, is trained and ridden by a high-percentage team and has a good 4F workout (Sep-11).

10 – Isadora Duncan – First-time starter whose breeding suggests she will like the grass, with a high-percentage winning trainer and jockey.

2 – Pampered– She has high-percentage winning trainer and she has a good 4F workout (Sep-11).

Longshot:

8 – Blue Madame – She ran 6th in her last race as the favorite but switches to a high % winning trainer who wins 29% of the races when bringing a beaten favorite back to race again, and she has a high % winning jockey.

Alternate:

5 – Belle of Georgia

$.50 Pick 4: 2,5,8,9,10/7,9/2,6/2,3,4,5,6 – Cost $50.00

Race 6

9 – Peek – He has finished in the money in 6 races out of the last 7 starts, winning 1 of the races, he has a high % winning trainer who wins 21% of the claiming races he has a horse running in.

7 – Laughing Boy – Finished 3rd vs tougher in last race and is trained and ridden by high-percentage connections.

2 – Bold Endeavor – He has a high % winning trainer and jockey; Highest speed figure at today’s distance and has the best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters.

Longshot:

4 – O P Firecracker – Drops in class today and he has a high % winning trainer.

Alternate:

8 – Tiberius Mercurius

Race 7-Female

6 – Slightly Busy – She placed in 3 out of 5 career starts, winning twice. Both her trainer and jockey have strong win rates, especially when switching from route to sprint races.

2 – Kerry – She performs well at PARX Racing, finishing in the money 86% of the time and winning 29% of her starts. The distance suits her, and both her trainer and jockey have strong win percentages.

1 – Strictly Taboo – She won her last race at Saratoga, she has the highest last race speed rating and she has a high % winning jockey.

Longshot:

7 – Weekend Rags – She finished in the money in 3 races out of 5 starts at Aqueduct; she has a high % winning trainer and can go the distance.

Alternate:

3 – Patria

5 – Linarite

Bet: $20.00 Win & $30.00 Place: 6 – $10.00 Exacta Box:2/6 – $5.00 Exacta Key Box: 6/1,2,7

Race 8

4 – Moe Eighty Eight – He has finished in the money in the last 3 starts, finishing 3rd vs tougher (on Dirt) in last race, and he has a bullet 4F workout (Sep-08).

6 – Oat Coutour – Finished 3rd vs similar (on Dirt) in his last race; Best Turf Speed is fastest among today’s starters.

2 – Askingforafriend – He finished 3rd vs similar in last race; he has a high % winning trainer and jockey.

Longshot:

5 – Before the Wind – Shows potential on turf and jockey also has a strong win rate.

Alternate:

3 – Egyptian

Best Bet of the Day at Aqueduct – 7th Race – #6 – Slightly Busy

Rich’s Picks:

Race 1: 2 ½ Mile Turf Jumpers

1 – SWEET WILL

7 – HIDDEN PATH

2 – SWORE

8 – WELSHMAN

Race 2: 1 Mile – Bias: Early Speed, 33% w2w – PP: Inside Out

7 – SHE’S COMPLICATED – big class dropper – nice works prepping

8 – YO LEVEN – some better fractions last out and C ZONE says a good trip is coming

1 – SPIRIT OF ESTHER – should be forward – fits jy Manny Franco

2 – TOXIC GIRL – TLRSP#+6 – been off a bit – OK works getting ready – SIM FAV

$0.50 Trifecta: 1,2,7,8/1,7,8/1,2,3,7,8

Race 3: 6 Furlongs – Bias: Early Speed, 36% w2w – PP: Rail Discount, 2+ A Touch Better than Fair

3 – RED VELVET CAKE – all noes – so we take the firsters – top rated with solid works

6 – SUGAR RIDE – bullet and go firster

7 – BROKEALLTHERULES – the last of the first timers – saw this yesterday

8 – PATIENCE N GRACE – bounce back race in 3rd start potential

$0.50 Pick 4: 3,6,7/3,4,7,8/1,3,9,10/2,7

Race 4: 6 Furlongs (Outer Turf) – Bias: Early Speed, 46% w2w – PP: Strong Inside Out

4 – INNATE – going forward  – getting extra distance helps

8 – BOSUN – as consistent as can be – 3rd up after winning 2 in a row

3 – FELTRINELLI – been off a long time – some of the back works suggest a solid come back

7 – FLAT TO DA MAT – SIM FAV that will be closing – Prat and Maker ROI of $+3.30

Race 5: 1 1/16 Miles (Turf) – Bias: Closers, 2/18 w2w – PP: Rail Discount, 2/3 Fair, 4-7 Best, 8+ Discount

10 – ISADORA DUNCAN – usually rank the 1sters in order – but the turf breeding is off the charts relative to the rest

9 – FRAUDSTER – YES horse – got to have her – wide trips in first two starts

3 – ONE MORE GUITAR – the other YES horse – getting more distance could help

1 – THE JEWELER – top rated 1ster versus mostly noes and tough call over the 4

4 – GIVE YOUR BEST

$0.50 Pick 4: 1,3,9,10/2,7,9/1,2,4,6/2,4

$0.50 Trifecta: 1,3,9,10/3,9,10/1,3,4,9,10

Race 6: 1 1/8 Miles – Bias: Stalkers, 15% w2w – PP: Rail Bonus, 2/3 Discount, 4-7 A Little Better than Par, 8+ None

2 – BOLD ENDEAVOR – bet PAR+ by a decent margin – needs a bounce back in 3rd up

7 – LAUGHING BOY – going to be on the front – lone E vs middle back types

9 – PEEK – Top Total Pace + 1 ½ lengths – but outside posts no wins – Top C ZONE

4 – O P FIRECRACKER – much better LP in last – ITM 7/10 at the distance

$2 Exacta Key Box: 2/4,5,7,9

Race 7: 6 Furlongs (Outer Turf) – Bias: Early Speed, 46% w2w – PP: Strong Inside Out

6 – SLIGHTLY BUSY – very good chance to be better in the 2nd up – better EP

1 – STRICTLY TABOO – better EP in last in a huge win – more distance could help

2 – KERRY – ITM 6/7 on AQ turf and 6/7 at the distance – Lone E vs all middle backs

4 – BLOSSOMING ERUDITE – SIM FAV and might be catching the right distance 2 wins in 3 races and just 1 win in 9 at any other

Race 8: 1 1/16 Miles (Turf) – Bias: Closers, 2/18 w2w – PP: Rail Discount, 2/3 Fair, 4-7 Best, 8+ Discount

2 – ASKINGFORAFRIEND – YES – 3SP# increases – Top TOTAL PACE +9 – SIM FAV

4 – MOE EIGHTY EIGHT – Better 5 ways and best published bullet work between races

6 – OAT COUTOUR – another with 3SP# increases with the most LS

1 – INSPEIGHTOFCHARLIE – 2nd race Parability vs noes and maybes

$0.50 Trifecta Box: 1,2,4,6

$5 Exacta Key Box: 2/1,3,4,6

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