Belmont at the Big A Horse Racing Tips, Commentary, Analysis and Suggested Wagers
Guaranteed Tip Sheet Free Track: Belterra Park – https://www.guaranteedtipsheet.com/index.aspx?afid=hrt
Free Belmont at the Big A Picks
Terry Hollywood Hay’s Picks:
Aqueduct – 5-08-2025
Race 1
4 – Lean Music Machine – He finished 2nd in his last race as the favorite but has a trainer who wins 31% of the races when bringing a beaten favorite back to race again, his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters and he has a high % winning jockey.
7 – Ranger Battalion – He has a high % winning trainer who wins 23% of the maiden claiming races he has a horse running in and he has a high % winning jockey.
6 – Aerate – He has a high % winning trainer who wins 27% of the maiden claiming races he has a horse running in and he switches to a high % winning jockey.
Longshot:
1 – Natural Hunk – He is a first-time starter whose Dam has 3 winners from 4 starters, his breeding suits today’s sprint distance and he has a high % winning trainer who wins 50% of the of the races with 1st time starters.
Race 2
6 – Macaw – He won his last race at Aqueduct, he has a high % winning trainer who wins 25% of the claiming races he has a horse running in and he has a high % winning jockey.
1 – Outsource – He has a high % winning trainer who wins 44% of the races the 1st time a horse he trains runs in a claiming race, he has a high % winning jockey and he has a 4F workout on May-02.
4 – Gametime Gladiator – He can improve while returning to dirt, he has a high % winning trainer who wins 26% of the races in the 1st race after claiming a horse and he has a bullet 5F workout on May-02.
Longshot:
3 – Unbroken Chain – He won his last race at Aqueduct, he has the highest last race speed rating and he has a high % winning jockey.
$.50 Pick 4: 1,6/2,5,6/2,3,6,8/3,5,6,8 – Cost $48.00
Race 3
6 – Graywing – He has won three races out of his last five starts and he has a high % winning jockey and a good 4F workout on May-03.
5 – Spun and Won – He finished 3rd in his last race and his early speed running style helps chances.
2 – Bramito – He has two wins out of seven starts at Aqueduct and he has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Longshot:
4 – Dot’s Dollar – He ran 2nd vs similar in his last race, he has the highest speed figure at today’s distance and his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters.
Race 4
3 – Lou – He has a high % winning trainer and jockey and he has a bullet 5F workout on May-01.
2 – Glint – He has won two races out of his last three starts, drops in class today and he has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
6 – Narciso Dali – He drops in class today, he has the highest speed figure at today’s distance, his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters and he has a good 4F workout on Apr-30.
Longshot:
8 – Blame It On Daddy – He ran 3rd in his last race, he can handle the distance and he has a high % winning jockey.
Alternate:
1 – Have You Heard
7 – Arcadian
Race 5–Female
5 – Observer – She ran 2nd vs similar in her last race and she has a high % winning trainer who wins 27% of the Maiden Claiming races he has a horse running in and she has a high % winning jockey.
3 – Sunset Park – Her best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters and she has a high % winning jockey who in last 7 days has this (12 3-3-1).
6 – Sounds of Summer – She drops in class today, she has a high % winning jockey and Lasix is added.
Longshot:
8 – Our Lil Surfergirl – She is a first-time starter whose Dam has 4 winners from 7 starters and 1 stakes winner, her breeding suits today’s sprint distance and she has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Alternate:
2 – Silent Sandy
$.50 Pick 4: 3,5,6,8/1,3,4,6/1,5/1,6,9 – Cost $48.00
Race 6
3 – Rotknee – He likes PARX Racing, finishing in the money in 77% of the races, winning 38% of the starts, and at today’s distance is three wins out of three starts and he has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
4 – Octane – He has won 44% of his career starts, drops in class today, his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters and he has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
1 – Twenty Four Mamba – He won his last race and he has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Longshot:
6 – Nova Rags – He has finished in the money in nine races out of his last ten starts, winning two races and he has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Alternate:
5 – Nelson Avenue
2 – Ridgewood Runner
Race 7
1 – Donegal Momentum – He has won four races out of eight career starts, drops in class today and he has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
5 – Big Everest – He likes PARX Racing, finishing in the money in 100% of the races, winning 71% of the starts, and distance will not be a problem as he has finished in the money in 64% of the races and winning 45% of the starts.
4 – Hush of a Storm– He finished 3rd vs tougher (on AW) in his last race, drops in class today and he has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Longshot:
6 – Sherlock’s Jewel – He won his last race and he has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Alternate:
3 – Wonderful Justice
Bet: $40.00 Win: 1 – $10.00 Exacta Box: 1/5 – $10.00 Exacta: 1/3,4,5,6
Race 8
9 – Army Proud – He finished 3rd in his last race, his best turf speed is fastest among today’s starters, he has a high % winning trainer and jockey and Lasix & blinkers are added.
6 – Cousin Ed – He finished 3rd vs tougher in his last race, drops in class today and he has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
1 – Orie – He finished 3rd in his last race and he has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Longshot:
3 – Pandemic Hero – He ran 2nd vs tougher (on Dirt) in his last race and he has a high % winning jockey.
Best Bet of the Day at PARX Racing – 7th Race – #1 – Donegal Momentum
Rich’s Picks:
Race 1: 6 ½ Furlongs – Bias: Early Speed, 39% w2w – PP: Outside In
1 – NATURAL HUNK – 2.92/3 First timer versus a field of Nos and 1 maybe
4 – LEAN MUSIC MACHINE – most consistent horse in the race
7 – RANGER BATTALION – excellent chance to be the pacesetter
6 – AERATE – SIM FAV and we saw plenty of them win yesterday
Race 2: 1 Mile – Bias: Inside 3 Edge, 4-7 Discount, 8+ Fair
3 – UNBROKEN CHAIN – TLRSP#+9 – four solid workouts since – only YES horse – SIM FAV and Top TOTAL PACE +8.5 – two length ES edge
4 – GAMETIME GLADIATOR – Tie for the other SIM FAV – 1 ½ LS edge
6 – MACAW – should see a similar race in round two off the sidelines
1 – OUTSOURCE – very consistent performer – last race better than the finish as he ran a lot faster
Race 3: 6 ½ Furlongs – Bias: Early Speed, 39% w2w – PP: Outside In
2 – BRAMITO – SIM FAV and Top TOTAL PACE – seen a lot of these win
4 – DOT’S DOLLAR – ITM 6/7 at the distance – should be forward – better EP and FRACTIONS
6 – GRAYWING – Pacesetter – with top C ZONE – won both with Manny Franco riding
5 – SPUN AND WON – highly consistent performer – tr wins at 23% off the claim
Race 4: 1 Mile – Bias: Inside 3 Edge, 4-7 Discount, 8+ Fair
2 – GLINT – not sure what happened in his last – move inside helps – ITM 5/6 at the distance
7 – ARCADIAN – lowest level since winning maiden by 9 – the only other time Manny rode
3 – LOU – ran faster last out and has two strong works since
6 – NARCISO DALI – should be on the front with the Top TOTAL PACE +8
Race 5: 6 ½ Furlongs – Bias: Early Speed, 39% w2w – PP: Outside In
5 – OBSERVER – TLRSP# + 3 – Top TOTAL PACE + 1 ½ Lengths – 2nd up improvement
3 – SUNSET PARK – SIM FAV and chance to be a pacesetter
8 – OUR LIL SURFERGIRL – got to give the first timer a chance vs maybes and noes
4 – MALIBU’S DYNAMITE – is going to need a rebound race
Race 6: 7 Furlongs – Bias: Rail Fair, 2/3 Discount, 4-7 Best, 8+ Bad
3 – ROTKNEE – 3 for 3 at the distance – pacesetter – bullet work between races
1 – TWENTY FOUR MAMBA – TLRSP# +6 – and Top TOTAL PACE – maybe a peak race last out and some regression coming?
4 – OCTANE – definitely been seen tougher – strong works for first since mid-October
6 – NOVA RAGS – tough call over the 2 – but lone C vs a field that wants to go forward
Race 7: 1 Mile Turf – Bias: Closers, 22% w2w – PP: Strong Rail, 2/3 Fair, 4-7 Discount, 8+ Fair
1 – DONEGAL MOMENTUM – strong rail – could be pacesetter – 2/2 at the distance – 3rd up
4 – HUSH OF A STORM – SIM FAV with a 1 ½ LS edge – runs well in first up
5 – BIG EVEREST – winner 5/7 on AQ turf – with a second by a neck and third
7 – SON OF A BIRCH – tough call over the 3 – but Top TOTAL PACE has to get the call
Race 8: 6 Furlongs Outer Turf – Bias: Early Speed, 31% w2w – Rail Stinks, 2-7 Small Bonus, 8+ Discount
9 – ARMY PROUD – TLRSP# +6 and Top TOTAL PACE +5 – SIM FAV – first LASIX
3 – PANDEMIC HERO – 3rd up for the first time – a couple of 2nd in a row – biggest dropper
1 – ORIE – been off a while – solid works – rail stinks
13 – HARD PAR – most experienced horse – sizable drop too
