Belmont at the Big A Horse Racing Tips, Commentary, Analysis and Suggested Wagers
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Free Belmont at the Big A Racing Picks
Terry Hollywood Hay’s Picks:
Belmont at Aqueduct – 10-03-2024
Race 1
3 – C Suite Boy – He ran 2nd in his last start, he has a high % winning and trainer who wins 26% of the maiden claiming races that she has a horse competing in, and he has a high % winning jockey and he has a good 4F workout on Sep-26.
2 – Forced Errors – He has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
4 – Shakin the Belle – He finished 3rd in his last race as the favorite but has a trainer who wins 18% of the races when bringing a beaten favorite back to race again, he has a high % jockey and his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters.
Longshot:
6 – Wild Nugget – He has an early foot so the cutback in distance should help and he has a high % winning trainer.
Alternate:
5 – Liberte de Bayeux
1 – Irish Tides
Race 2
1 – Because the Night – He won his last race at Aqueduct, the rail post is winning at a 27% clip and he has a high % winning and trainer and jockey.
5 – Anthracite – He drops in class today, has the highest last race speed rating, he has a high % winning trainer who wins 22% of the races when taking a horse from a sprint to route race, he has the highest speed figure at today’s distance and he has a high % winning jockey.
6- Arrebato – He drops in class today, his early speed running style helps chances, his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters and he has a high % winning jockey.
Longshot:
4 – Mr. Swagger – He drops in class today and blinkers are added today.
Alternate:
3 – Scotto
7 – Strong Light
Bet: $3.00 Exacta Box: #1,5,6
$.50 Pick 4: #1,5/2,3,5,7,8/1,3,6,7,11/3,5 – Cost $50.00
Race 3
8 – Ski Country – He ran 2nd vs similar in his only start, he switches to a high % winning jockey and he has a bullet 3F workout on Sep-27.
7 – Barese – He has the highest speed figure at today’s distance, his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters and blinkers added today.
2 – First Glimpse – He drops in class today and he has the highest last race speed rating.
Longshot:
5 – Mason Mania – He has a high % winning trainer who wins 17% of the races in the 1st race after claiming a horse and has a high % winning jockey.
Alternate:
3 – Grandpa’s Kid
Race 4
7 – Salvation – He ran 2nd vs similar (on Dirt) in his only start, his breeding suggests he will like the grass and he has a high % winning and trainer and jockey.
6 – Courageous Mission – He ran 2nd in his last two races and he has a high % winning trainer.
3 – Mythical Man – He has high % winning trainer who wins 40% of the time in a horse’s 2nd route race, may improve while trying grass and he has a good 4F workout on Sep-27.
Longshot:
11 – Papa’s Nico Boy – He has high % winning trainer who wins 20% of the races with 2YO horses and switches to a high % winning jockey.
Alternate:
1 – Reteko
Race 5-Female
3 – Linarite – She likes being the bridesmaid running 2nd or 3rd in her last seven races, today she may be the bride and she has a high % winning jockey.
5 – Reflexivity – She won her last race, has the highest last race speed rating, her best turf speed is fastest among today’s starters and she has a high % winning trainer who wins 27% of the races in the 1st race after claiming a horse.
2 – Sassy Allie – She won her last race at Aqueduct and she has a high % winning trainer.
Longshot:
1 – Quick Power Nap – She has a high % winning jockey and the distance will not be a problem.
Bet: $3.00 Exacta Box: #2,3,5
$.50 Pick 4: #2,3,5/1,2,4,6/7,10/3,7,9,11 – Cost $48.00
Race 6
6 – Dark Devil – He finished in the money in four career races, running 2nd in his last race, drops in class today and he has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
1 – Houlton – He ran 2nd in his last race, the rail post is winning at a 20% clip, he has a high % winning trainer who wins 22% of the maiden claiming races he has a horse running in and he has a high % winning jockey.
2 – Wajda – He drops in class today and has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Longshot:
4 – Missouri River – He drops in class today, can improve while returning to a sprint and has a high % winning trainer.
Race 7
7 – Full Nelson – He has won five out of his last eight starts and he has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
10- Royal Majesty – He drops in class today; his best turf speed is fastest among today’s starters and has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
11 – Vesting – He ran 3rd in his last race and he has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Longshot:
6 – Palm Tree – He ran 3rd in his last race and he has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Bet: $15.00 Win & $25.00 Place: #7 – $6.00 DD: 7/3,7,9,11
Race 8-Female
7 – Tam I Am– She finished 3rd vs similar in her only start, her best turf speed is fastest among today’s starters, she has a high % winning trainer who wins 26% of the starts in a horse’s 2nd grass race and she has a high % winning jockey.
9 – Pretty Liza – She finished 3rd vs similar in her only start and has a good 4F workout on Sep-24 and blinkers are added today.
3 – Candy Quest – She is a first-time starter, has a high % winning trainer and jockey and has a very good 4F workout on Sep-24.
Longshot:
11 – So Darn Pretty – She is a first-time starter, has a high % winning trainer and jockey and has a very good 4F workout on Sep-27.
Alternate:
10 – Moonscape
5 – Can’t Fool Me
Best Bet of the Day at PARX Racing – 7th Race – #7 – Full Nelson
Rich’s Picks:
Race 1: 6 Furlongs – Bias: Early Speed, 26% w2w – PP: Rail Bonus, 2-7 Under Par, 8+ Best
6 – WILD NUGGET – small drop from Toga, typical 2nd race improvement for likely pacesetter
4 – SHAKIN THE BELLE – a little more late speed and has come closest to matching par
3 – C SUITE BOY – MSW dropper? But is MSW at Belterra and Hawthorne really a drop? some upside in just 3rd career start
2 – FORCED ERRORS – sings of life in his last – better ATB – same move forward today gets it done
Race 2: 1 Mile – Bias: Early Speed, 42% w2w – PP: Big Rail Bonus, 2/3 Fair, 4-7 Been Bad, 8+ Fair
5 – ANTHRACITE – possible pacesetter – drops in class after TLRSP#+ 10
1 – BECAUSE THE NIGHT – won 2/3 on a fast track including his last at this level – rail helps
4 – MR. SWAGGER – drops in class – last was better through first ½ half mile
7 – STRONG LIGHT – consistent – chance to be at his best in 3rd up
Race 3: 1 Mile – Bias: Early Speed, 42% w2w – PP: Big Rail Bonus, 2/3 Fair, 4-7 Been Bad, 8+ Fair
Wide open race
1 – WINTER’S GHOST – going to take a shot in an open race – speed fade last out, 3rd up with a pair of maintenance works including his best published – rail advantage
2 – FIRST GLIMPSE – 3 SP# increases including the TLRSP# +6 and drops in class in 2nd start off the sidelines
4 – ALLABOUTTHEMONEY – best AQ record 13/2-3-2 – a little faster early and late in last
7 – BARESE – has by far the top AQ effort – been facing the toughest – pretty big drop – something wrong and looking to sell or hoping to cash a check?
Race 4: 1 1/16 Miles Turf -Bias: Early Speed, 18% w2w – PP: Big Inside Out Bias
7 – SALVATION – any improvement from debut and it will be hard for the rest to beat – finished 2nd last out – 3rd place horse came back to win next out
10 – MAX N FIFO – bullet work after debut – room to move plenty higher in 2nd career start
1 – RETEKO – no matter what the horse looks like on paper – can’t pass on the rail winning at 37%
3 – MYTHICAL MAN – funky trip as the 5/2 FAV in TOGA MSW 80k debut – better trip today and we could find out why he was the chalk
Race 5: 6 Furlongs Outer Turf – Bias: Early Speed, 38% w2w – PP: Rail Discount, 2/3 Fair, 4-7 Best, 8+ Discount
Open Race as ALL have shown the ability to win at this level
3 – LINARITE – in a race where all have shown they can win – no need to put an even money shot on top – this one sits off the pace and then closes it out
5 – REFLEXIVITY – in case I’m wrong – the even money ML FAV coming off a win under the same conditions
2 – SASSY ALLIE – improved in every race – likely pacesetter – but Manny Franco stays on the 5 instead
6 – TIPSY RUNNER – suppose Irad should be in your picks for an open race
Race 6: 7 Furlongs – Bias: Tactical Speed, 3/10 w2w – PP: Rail Bonus, 2/3 Discount, 4-7 Bonus, 8+ None
6 – DARK DEVIL – runs anything close to his last race and it’s graduation day
1 – HOULTON – 2nd at this level last out – resume says 3rd up should be better than last
2 – WAJDA – 3rd start after a layoff on the MSW drop
4 – MISSOURI RIVER – got to have the other MSW dropper competing at Tier 1 tracks
Race 7: 1 Mile Turf – Bias: w2w or deep closer in the 2 races so far – both from the rail
5 – IN A JAM – class dropper – will make a bold mid move
10 – ROYAL MAJESTY – drops from a pair of G1s where he just missed
9 – DONEGAL MOMENTUM – his muddy race and turf start suggest he might be the best turf horse in the race
2 – TAKE ME TO CHURCH – might have won a G3 last out if he doesn’t collide with a foe – not 100% sure he fits though
Race 8: 6 Furlongs Outer Turf – Bias: Early Speed, 38% w2w – PP: Rail Discount, 2/3 Fair, 4-7 Best, 8+ Discount
7 – TAM I AM – any better in 2nd career race and the rest are running for silver
9 – PRETTY LIZA – another with 2nd race improvement possibly puts her in the winner’s circle
3 – CANDY QUEST – 2.5/3 first timer
11 – SO DARN PRETTY – 2.5 first timer
