Belmont at the Big A Horse Racing Tips, Commentary, Analysis and Suggested Wagers
Guaranteed Tip Sheet Free Track: Delta Donws: https://www.guaranteedtipsheet.com/in…
Free Belmont at the Big A Racing Picks
Terry Hollywood Hay’s Picks:
Belmont at Aqueduct – 10-10-2024
Race 1
8 – Devil’s Cay – He finished 3rd in his last race, his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters (tie) and has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
6 – Sugar Gray Leonard – He can improve while returning to dirt, drops in class today, should improve while returning to a sprint and he has the highest speed figure at today’s distance.
1 – Quick Hammer – He has finished in the money in five races out of nine starts, winning two of the races and he has a high % winning trainer.
Longshot:
7 – Badlands Ruler – He likes PARX Racing finishing in the money in 71% of the races, winning 29% of the starts, and distance will not be a problem as he has finished in the money in 66% of the races, winning 33% of the starts.
Alternate:
3 – Thank You Jon
4 – Whenlovetakesover
Race 2-Female
2 – Marco T. – She finished 2nd in her last start, he has the highest last race speed rating and she has a trainer/ jockey combo in the last 14 days has this record (4 2-0-1).
4 – Im Just Kiddin – She ran 8th in her last race after having trouble as the favorite but has a trainer who wins 34% of the races when bringing a beaten favorite back to race again, she has a high % winning jockey.
1 – Solib – She can improve while returning to a sprint, she has the highest speed figure at today’s distance and she has a high % winning trainer.
Longshot:
3 – Autumn Glory – She finished 3rd in her last race and today’s distance will not be a problem.
Bet: $3.00 Exacta Box: #1,2,4
$.50 Pick 4: #2,4/2,6/2,5,7,9/1,2,3,4,6,7 – Cost $48.00
Race 3-Female
2 – Call Her Bluff – She has won four out of her last five starts, drops in class today and she has a good 4F workout on Oct-01.
6 – Brown Suga Babe – She has won two races in a row and is now going for a hat trick and she has a high % winning trainer.
4 – April Antics – She finished 3rd in her last race, she has a high % winning jockey and has a very good 4F workout on Oct-04.
Longshot:
5 – Racing Colors – She ran 2nd in last her race and has a good 4F workout on Sep-25.
Alternate:
3 – Echo in Eternity
8 – Bernietakescharge
Race 4
7 – Kalik – He drops in class today and he has a high % winning and trainer and jockey.
5 – Bodecream – He finished in the money in four races out of six starts at Aqueduct, winning two of the starts, and he has a high % winning jockey.
2 – Street Ready – He has high % winning trainer and jockey and his best turf speed is fastest among today’s starters.
Longshot:
9 – Ever Dangerous – He drops in class today and has high % winning trainer.
Race 5-Female
3 – Pretti Xtreme – She has a high % winning trainer and jockey and her best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters.
2 – R Funny Bizness – She ran 2nd in her last race at Aqueduct, has the highest last race speed rating, she has a high % winning jockey and a good 4F workout on Oct-02.
4 – Condiment Girl – She has a high % winning trainer who wins 17% of the races in the 1st starts after claiming a horse, her early speed running style helps chances and her highest speed figure at today’s distance.
Longshot:
6 – My First Love – She likes PARX Racing finishing in the money in 60% of the races, winning 27% of the starts, and he has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Alternate:
1 – Gringotts
7 – Ghostly Girl
Bet: $3.00 Exacta Box: #2,3,4
$.50 Pick 4: #1,2,3,4,6,7/6,9/6,8/5,6,7,8 – Cost $48.00
Race 6
9 – J D Factor – He drops in class today; his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters and he has a high % winning trainer who wins 62% of the time in the 1st claiming race a horse competes in.
6 – Chalky Cat – He can improve while returning to a sprint, he has a high % winning trainer who wins 23% when taking a horse from a route to a sprint and he has a high % winning jockey.
4 – Giant’s Fire – He has a high % winning trainer who wins 25% races in the 1st race after claiming a horse and switches to a high % winning jockey and the trainer/jockey combo in the last 7 days has this record (25 7-4-3).
Longshot:
2 – Royal King – He drops in class today and his best dirt speed is faster than the Avg Winning Speed.
Alternate:
1 – Conniving
7 – Irie Man
Race 7-Female
6 – Striker Has Dial – She finished in the money in six career races winning one of starts, her Dam has produced 1 Turf winner and she has a high % winning jockey.
8 – Awesome Czech – She has won two out of her last three starts and drops in class today.
2 – Venencia – She finished 3rd vs similar in her last race, her best turf speed is fastest among today’s starters and she has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Longshot:
1 – Brisbane – She comes in from France after winning her last race, she has high % winning trainer Chad Brown and she has a high % winning jockey and Lasix is added.
Alternate:
5 – By Any Other Name
Bet: $15.00 Win & $25.00 Place: #6 – $6.00 DD: 6/5,6,7,8
Race 8-Female
5 – Tahila – She ran 2nd vs similar in her last race as the favorite but has a trainer who wins 26% of the races when bringing a beaten favorite back to race again and she has a high % winning jockey.
8 – Dreamworkin – She may improve while trying grass, has a high % winning trainer and jockey and has a very good 4F workout on Oct-05.
6 – Kyla’s Kause – She was only beaten 2-1/2 lengths in her debut race and has a high % winning trainer.
Longshot:
7 – Backcheck – She is a first-time starter whose breeding suits today’s sprint distance and she has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Best Bet of the Day at PARX Racing – 7th Race – #6 – Striker Has Dial
Rich’s Picks:
Race 1: 6 Furlongs – Bias: Early Speed, 30% w2w – PP: Outside In Bias – Post 2/3 Dinged Hard
1 – QUICK HAMMER – some of his best works prepping to come off a layoff
8 – DEVIL’S CAY – consistent performer with top TOTAL PACE – struggled a little at AQ 7/0-2-0
3 – THANK YOU JON – speed figures up in the last two with much better LP in last
6 – SUGAR GRAY LEONARD – been running – unsuccessfully on turf – back to dirt where he’s done much better
Race 2: 6 Furlongs Outer Turf – Bias: Early Speed, 30% w2w – PP: Rail Bad, 2/3 Fair, 4-7 Best, 8+ Discount
7 – LATEST EDITION – all or nothing at AQ 5/2-0-0 – best when close to the front – might be the pacesetter today with 42 Q30
2 – MARCO T. – doesn’t look like it in the PPs – but should be forward vs these and usually closes
1 – SOLIB – last run at AQ wins – that was first up like today
6 – GOLDEN ROCKET – 3rd up, shortening up and drops in class
Race 3: 1 1/8 Miles – Bias: 3 Races – Closers, 0 w2w – PP: 1 from 2/3 and the other 2 from 4-7
2 – CALL HER BLUFF – most closing kick by 12 and won’t be too far off the pace
6 – BROWN SUGA BABE – won her last two and neither were close
8 – BERNIETAKESCHARGE – AQ is the course for this horse 5/1-2-1 with by far her best performances
3 – ECHO IN ETERNITY – exploded early in her last with by far best pace and fractions
Race 4: 1 Mile Turf – Bias: Barbell, 2 w2w – 2 closers in 4 races – 2 Wins from Rail, 1 from 4-7 and the other 8+
5 – BODECREAM – 3rd up and was improved through first half last out
7 – KALIK – better ATB in last and room for more in 2nd up
9 – EVER DANGEROUS – was off for more than a year – came back with a solid effort and has three works between races on the drop
10 – KHAFRE – tough call over the 2 – but the 2 hasn’t hit the board in 2 years
Race 5: 7 Furlongs – Bias: Early Speed, 38% w2w – PP: Mostly Fair 1-7, but 2/3 take a hit and 8+ No wins
6 – MY FIRST LOVE – better ATB in last – highly consistent
4 – CONDIMENT GIRL – has some of the most back class – claimed in the last 3 races – reclaimed by the Potts barn – they must think highly
2 – R FUNNY BIZNESS – TLRSP# on a peak race – expect some regression, but not much
3 – PRETTI XTREME – not a big fan – but trust oddsmaker David Aragona and tr won 10/18 on claim and drop
Race 6: 6 ½ Furlongs – Bias: Early Speed, 62% w2w – PP: Rail Fair, 2/3 Dinged, 4-7 Best, 8+ Penalty
6 – CHALKY CAT – 3rd up, resume says big bounce back coming
9 – J D FACTOR – huge class drop? Is something wrong off that last race?
2 – ROYAL KING – should be pacesetter – speed and fade in 1st up on turf –
4 – GIANT’S FIRE – drops in class off the claim – lowest level in last 10
Race 7: 1 Mile Turf – Bias: Barbell, 2 w2w – 2 closers in 4 races – 2 Wins from Rail, 1 from 4-7 and the other 8+
1 – BRISBANE – ran well at top French tracks – been off for more than a year – works are steady for Chad Brown – must like to be forward with Manny on board
2 – VENENCIA – another Brown horse that has faced much tougher
9 – DETERMINED LILLY – won two of three on AQ grass – 3rd up at a price
8 – AWESOME CZECH – been running in NGSTK and should be coming at the end
Race 8: 6 Furlongs Outer Turf – Bias: Early Speed, 30% w2w – PP: Rail Bad, 2/3 Fair, 4-7 Best, 8+ Discount
6 – KYLA’S KAUSE – high end 2nd race improvement would make her hard to beat
8 – DREAMWORKIN – another with 2nd race improvement giving her a big chance
5 – TAHILA – two solid races to start career – will need to be a lot better today if either of the top two pick it up
7 – BACKCHECK – best of the first timers – wish the works were a little sharper
