Belmont at the Big A Horse Racing Tips, Commentary, Analysis and Suggested Wagers
Guaranteed Tip Sheet Free Track: Remington Park: https://www.guaranteedtipsheet.com/in…
Free Belmont at the Big A Racing Picks
Terry Hollywood Hay’s Picks:
Belmont at Aqueduct – 10-17-2024
Race 1-Female
6 – Catalyzed – She finished 2nd in her three career starts, her best turf speed is fastest among today’s starters, she has a high % winning trainer and switches to a high % winning jockey.
5 – Counterinteligence – She is a first-time starter whose breeding suggests she will like the grass she has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
4 – Just So Pretty – She finished 3rd vs similar in her last race and she has a high % winning trainer.
Longshot:
7 – Golden Note – She finished 4th in her last race, has a high % winning trainer who wins 50% of the time in the horse’s 2nd career race.
Race 2-Female
4 – Geopolitics – She won her last race at Saratoga, she has the highest last race speed rating, her best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters and she high % winning trainer and jockey.
1 – Poseidon’s Mist – She is a closer who ran 3rd in her last race after having trouble only missing by a neck and she has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
6 – Miss Lao – She ran 2nd in her last race, switches to a high % winning jockey, she has a trainer who wins 27% of the Allowance races that he has a horse competing in and she has a bullet 3F workout on Oct-10.
Longshot:
2 – Brooklyn Dantz – She has a win at Aqueduct and can improve while returning to dirt.
Alternate:
3 – Amy’s Light
Bet: $3.00 Exacta Box: #1,4,6
$.50 Pick 4: #1,4/3,5/1,2,4,5,7/1,2,4,7,10 – Cost $50.00
Race 3
5 – Runnin’ Ray – He drops in class today and he has a high % winning trainer who wins 22% of the races in the 2nd race after being claimed and he has a high % winning jockey.
3 – Flat Out Flying – He finished 3rd in his last race, his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters (tie) and he has a good 5F workout on Oct-09.
4 – Skylander – He finished 3rd vs tougher in his last race, drops in class today and he has high % winning trainer and jockey.
Longshot:
2 – Suerte – He finished 3rd in his last race as the favorite but switches to a high % winning trainer who wins 44% of the races when bringing a beaten favorite back to race again, his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters (tie) and the rail post is winning at a 23% clip.
Alternate:
7 – Bossmakinbossmoves
Race 4-Female
1 – Twilight Tango – She finished 3rd vs similar in her only start and she has a high % winning and trainer and jockey.
4 – Teller to Win– She finished 3rd vs similar in her only start, she has the highest last race speed rating, her best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters and she was well bet in his debut.
5 – Cha Cha Wren – She finished 3rd vs similar in her only start and she has a high % winning and trainer and jockey.
Longshot:
7 – Rodeo Star – She is a first – time starter who has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Alternate:
3 – Straca
Race 5
1 – Coast Along – He has won two races in a row and is now going for a hat trick and he has a high % winning and trainer and jockey.
4 – Gaslight Dancer – He won his last race at Aqueduct and he has a high % winning and trainer and jockey.
10 – Anaconda – He finished 3rd in his last race and he has a high % winning and trainer and jockey.
Longshot:
5 – Tidal Forces – He has finished in the money in eight races out of his last ten starts, winning four of the races and he has a bullet 3F workout on Oct-11.
Alternate:
7 – Straight Arrow
Bet: $3.00 Exacta Box: #1,4,10
$.50 Pick 4: #1,4,5,7,10 /5,6,7,8,9,10/2/2,3,9,10 – Cost $50.00
Race 6
10 – Confabulation – He ran 2nd vs similar in his last race, has the highest last race speed, he has a high % winning and trainer who wins 23% of the races in the 1st race after being claimed and his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters.
6 – Torpedo Run – He finished 3rd in his last race as the favorite but has a high % winning trainer who wins 28% of the races when bringing a beaten favorite back to race again and has a high % winning jockey.
8 – Trulli Warrior – He has a high % winning trainer who wins 50% of the races when dropping a horse down 2+ classes and he has a high % winning jockey.
Longshot:
5 – Bolt d’Plata – He can improve while returning to dirt, drops in class today and his best dirt speed is faster than the Avg Winning Speed.
Alternate:
9 – Change Your Name
7 – Bad Boy Butch
Race 7-Female
2 – Dancing Dean – She ran 2nd vs similar in her last race, has the highest last race speed and she has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
3 – I’m a Sure Thing – She finished 6th in her last race as the favorite but switches to a high % winning trainer who wins 27% of the races when bringing a beaten favorite back to race again and switches to a high % winning jockey.
4 – Youknownothing – She has finished in the money in two races out of four career starts, winning one of the races and she has a high % winning trainer.
Longshot:
7 – Elle Est Forte – She has finished in the money in three races out of four races at Aqueduct, can handle the distance and she has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Alternate:
8 – Lullaby Land
Bet: $40.00 Win: #2 – $6.00 DD: 2/2,3,9,10
Race 8
2 – Spoken Bluntly – He finished 3rd in his last race, drops in class today and he has a high % winning and trainer and jockey.
3 – Starsinthecity – He finished 3rd in his last race, he has a high % winning and trainer who wins 27% of the races in maiden claiming races and he has a high % winning jockey.
9 – My Life Story – He was beaten only 1-1/2 lengths vs similar in his last start and he has high % winning trainer and jockey.
Longshot:
10 – Scherzando – He drops in class today, he has the highest last race speed rating, can improve while returning to a sprint and his best turf speed is fastest among today’s starters.
Best Bet of the Day at PARX Racing – 7th Race – #2 – Dancing Dean
Rich’s Picks:
Race 1: 1 1/16 Miles Turf – Bias: Stalkers, 12% w2w – PP: Inside Out with Super Strong Rail
6 – CATALYZED – rerun last race and it’s a wrap
7 – GOLDEN NOTE – 2nd race improvement would be enough
5 – COUNTERINTELIGENCE 2.8/3 first timer
1 – SO READY – hard call over the 4 – but the rail has too big of an advantage to pass
Race 2: 7 Furlongs – Bias: Early Speed, 44% w2w – PP: Inside 3 Small Penalty, 4-7 Best, 8+ None
6 – MISS LAO – unlikely any of these are going to beat the 4 – IMO, this one has the best chance
4 – GEOPOLITICS – literally checks every box
3 – AMY’S LIGHT – better in 2nd up – last was better early and then late
1 – POSEIDON’S MIST – take your pick between the 1 or 2 – this one has done better at the distance
Race 3: 1 Mile – Bias: Early Speed, 33% w2w – PP: Rail Best, 2/3 Fair, 4-7 Discount, 8+ Bonus
2 – SUERTE – Lone E – going to be on the lead – right where Kendrick wants to be – Rail Bump
5 – RUNNIN’ RAY – run back to the Aug 21 race at Toga is all that’s needed in 3rd up
7 – BOSSMAKINBOSSMOVES – tons better early in last –
4 – SKYLANDER – has a win and 2nd with D Davis riding – he gets back on with a drop on class and sometimes has explosive LP
Race 4: 1 Mile – Bias: Early Speed, 33% w2w – PP: Rail Best, 2/3 Fair, 4-7 Discount, 8+ Bonus
1 – TWILIGHT TANGO – any 2nd race improvement makes her tough to beat
5 – CHA CHA WREN – looking for the same thing here – better in 2nd race – Manny should get her off to better start
7 – RODEO STAR – 1st timer that doesn’t have a lot to beat
4 – TELLER TO WIN – Parx Riser – SP# is there – but beware of the dip
Race 5: 6 Furlongs Outer Turf – Bias: Early Speed, 30% w2w, Rail Sucks, 2-7 Best, 8+ Penalty
2 – FLUID SITUATION – time to take a shot with a horse for the course 2/2 on AQ grass – Lone EP
7 – STRAIGHT ARROW – been off nearly a year – the works are hot – last at AQ wins
4 – GASLIGHT DANCER – 3rd up – will be closing
10 – ANACONDA – probably the class of the field – much better start last out – 3rd up after more than a year on the bench – boom or bust today
Race 6: 1 Mile – Bias: Early Speed, 33% w2w – PP: Rail Best, 2/3 Fair, 4-7 Discount, 8+ Bonus
10 – CONFABULATION – just needs to be the same as either of his first two starts
5 – BOLT D’PLATA – last race was bad – but does have a par effort on dirt
8 – TRULLI WARRIOR – really consistent performer – drops and returns to dirt
6 – TORPEDO RUN – 3SP# increase and drops today
Race 7: 1 3/8 Miles Turf – Bias: 3 Races, All Deep Closers and all from PPs 2/3
5 – VICTORIA’S DANCER – doesn’t look like it on paper, but could be forward and Manny Franco is an assassin on the lead – let’s take a chance to beat the heavy fav
2 – DANCING DEAN – likely to be less than even money – a little scary because she starts way back –
4 – YOUKNOWNOTHING – drops from a couple of NGSTK and has a 2nd by a length at this level
7 – ELLE EST FORTE – better ATB in last and probably most consistent in the race
Race 8: 6 Furlongs Outer Turf – Bias: Early Speed, 30% w2w, Rail Sucks, 2-7 Best, 8+ Penalty
10 – SCHERZANDO – one of 2 Pure MSW droppers, the other is from HINDY
7 – TOMSCHICKENFINGERS – 2nd race improvement plus first Lasix and could hit at a price
3 – STARSINTHECITY – has hit Par on AQ turf – much better late in last
8 – DRIVE THRU – 2.7/3 firster with a back bullet
