Belmont at the Big A Horse Racing Tips, Commentary, Analysis and Suggested Wagers
Guaranteed Tip Sheet Free Track: Evangeline Downs: https://www.guaranteedtipsheet.com/in…
Free Belmont at the Big A Racing Picks
Terry Hollywood Hay’s Picks:
Belmont at Aqueduct – 10-24-2024
Race 1-Female
6 – Millie Jean – She finished 3rd vs tougher in her last race, drops in class today, her best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters, has a high % winning and trainer who wins 21% of the races in when taking a horse from a maiden race to a maiden claiming race and she has a high % winning jockey.
4 – Bewildered – She drops in class today, and she has a high % winning trainer.
2 – Wild Iris – She drops in class today and she has a high % winning trainer who wins 20% of the races in when using 1st time blinkers.
Longshot:
3 – Azteca Stardust – She finished 3rd in her last race and she has a high % winning trainer.
Alternate:
1 – That’sthefactjack
5 – La Indecente
Bet: $1.00 Exacta Key Box: #6/All
Race 2
6 – Bourbon Chase – He has finished in the money in his last five races, winning one of the races and he has a high % winning and trainer and jockey.
5 – Engineer Empire – He won his last race at Aqueduct and he has a high % winning and trainer and jockey.
3 – Coinage – He has a high % winning and trainer and jockey.
Longshot:
1 – Lotsa Trouble – He finished poorly in his last race after having trouble on the turf and now returns to the dirt where he has never been out of money in his career, winning two out of four starts and he has a high % winning and trainer and jockey.
Alternate:
2 – Allure of Money
4 – Two’s a Crowd
Bet: $1.00 Exacta Box: #1,3,5,6
$.50 Pick 4: #1,3,5,6/3,5,7/1,2,5,9/3,5,10 – Cost $48.00
Race 3-Female
3 – Sweet Anniversary – She won her last race at Finger Lakes; her best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters and she has a bullet 4F workout (Oct-18).
7 – Nolita– She has finished in the money in last four of five career races, winning one of the races at Aqueduct and she has a high % winning trainer.
5 – Malu – She has won in two of her last five races, is trained and owned by Linda Rice and she has a high % winning jockey.
Longshot:
1A – Chasing Daylight – She ran 2nd vs similar in her last race and she has the highest speed figure at today’s distance.
Alternate:
2 – Silent Melody
4 – Starry Midnight
Race 4-Female
9 – Miss Bourbon – She 2nd vs similar in her last start and she has a high % winning and trainer and jockey.
5 – Justheart – She finished 3rd vs similar in her last start, she switches to a high % winning jockey and she has a bullet 3F workout (Oct-17).
2 – Evie Does It – She has a high % winning and trainer who wins 27% of the races when taking a horse from a sprint-route-sprint, returning to a sprint may be a plus and she has the best turf speed among today’s starters.
Longshot:
1 – Dusk – She has the highest speed figure at today’s distance and has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Alternate:
3 – Turriga
8 – Magic Eight Ball
Race 5-Female
9 – Z Train – She closed to finish 3rd in her last start at today’s distance and switches to a high % winning jockey.
5 – Stamp of Approval – She finished 3rd vs tougher in her last races, drops in class today and she has a high % winning and trainer who wins 28% of the races in when taking a horse from a maiden race to a maiden claiming race.
3 – Positive Carry – She finished 2nd vs similar in her last race and she has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Longshot:
4 – Its Satisfactual – She ran 2nd vs tougher in her last race, drops in class today and has a high % winning trainer and she has a bullet 4F workout (Oct-13).
Alternate:
8 – Dazzling Cruiser
Bet: $3.00 Exacta Box: #3,5,9
$.50 Pick 4: #3,4,5,9/1A,2,6,7,8,11/3/8,9 – Cost $24.00
Race 6
8 – Skyloft – He ran 2nd in his last race on the turf and now tries dirt and he has a high % winning and jockey.
7 – Chris’s Revenge – He finished 5th in his debut race after having trouble, he has a high % winning trainer who wins 33% of the races in the 2nd career race a horse has and has a high % winning jockey.
2 – America’s Honor – He finished 3rd in his last two starts and he has a high % winning trainer.
Longshot:
1A – Western Wolf – He has an early foot in his debut race and received an 80-speed rating.
Alternate:
11 – Wolf Beach
6 – Daw Samaa
Race 7
3 – El Grande O – He has finished in the money in nine of his last ten races, winning three of the races, he has a high % winning and trainer and jockey and he has a bullet 4F workout (Oct-18).
5 – Classify – He finished 2nd in his last race, he has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
8 – For Some Reason – He has won two races in a row and now goes for a hat trick and his early speed running style helps chances.
Longshot:
6 – Daufuskie Island – He has a high % winning trainer and jockey and this combo in the last 14 days has this record (4 2-1-0).
Alternate:
1 – Forrest City
4 – Register
Bet: $30.00 Win: #3 – $3.00 DD: 3/5,7,8,9
Race 8
8 – Cattani – He ran 2nd vs similar in his last race just missing the win and he has a high % winning and trainer and jockey.
9 – Bomb Squad – He has the highest last race speed rating, drops in class today and his best turf speed is fastest among today’s starters (tie).
7 – Makeyourmoment – He was beaten only 1-1/2 lengths in his last start as the favorite but has a high % winning trainer who wins 21% of the races when bringing a beaten favorite back to race again and he has high % winning jockey.
Longshot:
5 – Landauer – He closed to be beaten only 3/4 lengths on the turf and he has a good 4F workout on (Oct-19).
Alternate:
4 – Judge Rules
Best Bet of the Day at PARX Racing – 7th Race – 3 – El Grande O
Rich’s Picks:
Race 1: 6 ½ Furlongs – Bias: Early Speed, 48% w2w – PP: 1-3 Discount, 4-7 Best, 8+ Discount
6 – MILLIE JEAN – 4/5 ML 1/5 Post Time? MSW dropper with some nice works – been off a year though
2 – WILD IRIS – last race sucked, 1st after more than a year off, drops and is making a second start following her best published work – only 4 YO – but it is the end of the year
4 – BEWILDERED – the other pure MSW dropper and has a fast work prepping
5 – LA INDECENTE – deceptively a little quicker in her last
Race 2: 1 1/8 Miles – Bias: Stalkers, 1/5 w2w – PP: None from Rail, 1 from 2/3, 4+ Bonus with 8+ Best
6 – BOURBON CHASE – Top TOTAL PACE +16 – most back class – 3rd up is a ? – but two maintenance works between
5 – ENGINEER EMPIRE – first race since December, works are solid and distance is right 2/2
1 – LOTSA TROUBLE – chance to get to the lead and if the fractions are right in 2nd up
4 – TWO’S A CROWD – SIM favorite – our experience is you have to have them
Race 3: 1 Miles – Bias: Tactical Speed, 27% w2w – PP: Inside Out
3 – SWEET ANNIVERSARY – track upgrade from Flakes, decent works – best numbers
7 – NOLITA – making 3 starts in a town for the first time – if she breaks sharply – probably is the best horse
1A – CHASING DAYLIGHT – Terry Angle – Better Fractions and EP in last
4 – STARRY MIDNIGHT – numbers almost Identical to the 3 – repeat two back is all that is needed
Race 4: 6 Furlongs Outer Turf – Bias: Early Speed, 36% w2w – PP: Rail and 8+ Discounted Heavily, 2-7 Bonus
3 – TURRIGA – Q30 qualifier – should compete for the lead – faster fractions but longer in last
9 – MISS BOURBON – PPs say 3rd up could pop – better fractions, best horse worst PP?
2 – EVIE DOES IT – maybe the most upside in the race – cuts back from a mile with a work between
5 – JUSTHEART – been closing – is the switch to Kendrick and indication they will try to get forward today?
Race 5: 1 1/16 Miles Turf – Bias: Tactical Speed, 17% w2w – PP: Strong Inside Out
8 – DAZZLING CRUISER – not a fan of the post – but last race repeat wins, drops and a bullet and go work for first since late August
3 – POSITIVE CARRY – been really close to graduating – best races have been 1st ups like today
5 – STAMP OF APPROVAL – could be the pacesetter and that’s where she wants to be
2 – SUNDAY TIFF – improved in every race – would need to take another step forward – maybe MSW drop is enough?
Race 6: 6 ½ Furlongs – Bias: Early Speed, 48% w2w – PP: 1-3 Discount, 4-7 Best, 8+ Discount
1A WESTERN WOLF/ 1 BRAVE BEAR – 2 for 1 and either can win based on 2nd race improvement for the 1A and the 47.3 four furlong work for the fist time 1
2 – AMERICA’S HONOR – much better through the first ½ mile last out
7 – CHRIS’S REVENGE – another where typical 2nd race improve would do
4 – ARCADIAN – the 2nd best first timer behind the 1 – but many others could fit in this spot
Race 7: 6 ½ Furlongs – Bias: Early Speed, 48% w2w – PP: 1-3 Discount, 4-7 Best, 8+ Discount
3 – EL GRANDE O – drops from a pair of G3s, gets first time Lasix with hot works
5 – CLASSIFY – loves to finish 2nd – five of them in row
7 – TOXIC GRAY – taking a shot with this pick – only horse with a triple digit sp# on his resume
8 – FOR SOME REASON – two big wins in a row – but hasn’t hit PAR for this level – big step up
Race 8: 1 1/8 Miles Outer Turf – Bias: 3 Races – Closers, 0 w2w – PP: 1 from 2/3, 4-7 and 8+
7 – MAKEYOURMOMENT – bounce back race incoming in third career start
9 – BOMB SQUAD – missed by just ¾ a length at this level two back – TLRSP#+8
8 – CATTANI – finally healthy? – Making two starts in a row for the first time in 4 race career as a late four year old
4 – JUDGE RULES – plenty of back races good enough to win here
