Belmont at the Big A Horse Racing Tips, Commentary, Analysis and Suggested Wagers
Guaranteed Tip Sheet Free Track: Fanduel Park: https://www.guaranteedtipsheet.com/in…
Free Belmont at the Big A Racing Picks
Terry Hollywood Hay’s Picks:
Belmont at Aqueduct – 10-31-2024
Race 1
1 – Unswayed – He ran 2nd vs tougher in his last race, drops in class today and switches to a high % jockey.
2 – Dunedin Causeway – He bobbled and bumped at the start of his last race at Aqueduct and did not finish, took a 47-day break but has been steadily working out for his return including having a bullet 4F workout (Oct-22).
4 – Boom Boom Thunder – He finished 3rd vs similar in his last race, has the highest last race speed rating and has a high % winning trainer.
Longshot:
7 – Royal King – He has an early speed running style that helps his chances so he can improve at the shorter distance, he has the highest speed figure at today’s distance, his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters and he has a high % winning jockey.
Alternate:
6 – Muazarah
3 – Solo in Paris
Race 2
7 – Janssen – He ran 2nd vs similar in his last race, he has the highest speed figure at today’s distance, his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters and he has a high % winning jockey.
8 – Burn Rubber – He drops in class today; he has a high % winning and trainer who wins 32% of the races in when taking a horse from a maiden race to a maiden claiming race, he has a high % winning jockey and blinkers added today.
2 – Senegal – He finished 3rd in his last race, he has a high % winning trainer who wins 42% of the races in the 2nd start a horse has with this trainer and he has a high % winning jockey.
Longshot:
5 – Charming Jim – He was beaten only a neck vs tougher (on Turf) in his last start, drops in class today and may improve while returning to dirt.
Alternate:
4 – Berning Beauty
1 – Neptune Beach
Bet: $1.00 Exacta Box: #2,5,7,8
$.50 Pick 4: #1,2,4,5,7,8/2,4/3,4/3,6,8,9 – Cost $48.00
Race 3
4 – Sandy Sweet Tooth – He has never been out of money in his career, winning two out of three starts and he has a high % winning and trainer and jockey.
2 – Iridescent – He ran 2nd vs similar in his last race at Aqueduct, he has a high % winning trainer who wins 37% of the races in the 1st race after claiming a horse, his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters and he has a high % winning and jockey.
5 – Squints – He has finished in the money in his last five races, winning one of the starts and he has a high % winning and trainer and jockey.
Longshot:
8 – The Monopoly Man – He ran 2nd vs similar in his last race at PARX Racing, he has a high % winning trainer and he has a high % winning and jockey.
Alternate:
6 – Ridgewood Runner
7 – Likebelivingnmagic
Race 4-Female
4 – Grand Job – She comes in from Ireland after finishing 2nd in three out of her four career starts and she has a high % winning and trainer and jockey.
3 – Fashion Victim– She finished 2nd vs similar in her last start and she has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
2 – Bundchen – She drops in class today, can improve while returning to dirt, she has a high % winning trainer who wins 42% of the races when taking a horse from Turf to Dirt and she has a high % winning jockey.
Longshot:
8 – Citational – She finished 3rd vs similar in her only start and she has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Alternate:
1 – The Taco Lady
6 – Shop Lifting
Race 5-Female
9 – Nilo’s Rose – She ran 2nd vs similar in her only start, she has the highest last race speed rating and she has a high % winning and trainer who wins 21% of the dirt starts he has a horse running in and she has a high % winning jockey.
3 – Someone – She finished 2nd in her last races, and she has a high % winning trainer who wins 21% of the 2-year-old races and she has a high % winning jockey.
8 – Take Me to Londyn – She is a first-time starter, whose Dam has 1 winner from 1 starter, her breeding suits today’s sprint distance and she has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Longshot:
6 – Gaga’s Hamsome – She ran 3rd vs similar in her last race, she has a high % winning trainer and jockey and she has a good 4F workout (Oct-26).
Alternate:
5 – Mrs. Manicotti
8 – Take Me to Londyn
Bet: $1.00 Exacta Key Box: #9/All
$.50 Pick 4: #3,9/1,2,3,5,7,8/1,3/1,3,5,6 – Cost $48.00
Race 6
2 – Because the Night – He ran 2nd vs similar in his last race and he has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
7 – Cool Operator – He drops in class today and he has a high % winning trainer.
3 – J J’s Joker – He drops in class today, he has a trainer who wins 18% of the races when taking a horse from a sprint to a route, he has the highest speed figure at today’s distance, his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters.
Longshot:
8 – Lonely Ride – He won his last race and he has a high % winning trainer.
Alternate:
1 – Arrebato
5 – Heard On Thestreet
Bet: $3.00 Exacta Box: #2,3,7
Race 7
1 – L’Antharis – He came in from France and ran 2nd in his first race at Saratoga on the turf, and he has a high % winning and trainer and jockey.
3 – Be Like Clint – He ran 2nd in his last start as the favorite but has a trainer who wins 25% of the races when bringing a beaten favorite back to race again and he has a high % winning jockey.
6 – Swore – He ran 3rd vs tougher in his last race, drops in class today and he has a high % winning trainer.
Longshot:
5 – Now and Later – He ran 3rd in his last race, switches to a high % winning jockey, the longer distance may help and he has a good 4F workout on (Oct-26).
Bet: $15.00 Win $26.00 Place: #1 – $3.00 DD: 1/1,3,5,6
Race 8
5 – More Therapy– He ran 3rd vs similar in his last race by closing at 5-1/2 furlongs and he has a trainer who wins 17% of the sprints he has a horse competing in.
6 – Swift Magic – He finished 6th in his last start as the favorite but has a high % winning trainer who wins 23% of the races when bringing a beaten favorite back to race again.
3 – Blameitonthestones – He was beaten only 2- lengths vs similar in his only start and the additional distance may be a plus.
Longshot:
1 – Tap It Easy – He is a first-time starter, whose breeding suits today’s sprint distance and he has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Alternate:
13 – Orie
Best Bet of the Day at PARX Racing – 7th Race – #1 – L’Antharis
Rich’s Picks:
Race 1: 6 Furlongs – Bias: Tactical Speed, 34% w2w – PP: Rail Bonus, 2/3 Discount, 4-7 Fair, 8+ Best
4 – BOOM BOOM THUNDER – just needs to build on his last race in 2nd up
1 – UNSWAYED – plenty of upside in just the fifth race – 2nd up improvement
2 – DUNEDIN CAUSEWAY – most upside in the race with most back class
5 – MAJESTIC ARC – lone win was 1st up at AQ – like today – best published work between races
Race 2: 1 Mile – Bias: Tactical Speed, 26% w2w – PP: Inside 3 Bonus, 4+ Small Penalty
7 – JANSSEN – top TOTAL PACE +13 and TLRSP#+8 and bullet work between races – Lone E
3 – ME WISE MAGIC – MSW dropper with 2nd race improvement
2 – SENEGAL – highly consistent performer
8 – BURN RUBBER – the other MSW dropper
Race 3: 7 Furlongs – Bias: Early Speed, 36% w2w – PP: Rail Bonus, 2/3 Discount, 4-7 Small Bonus, 8+ None
4 – SANDY SWEET TOOTH – Sesame street horses – better in 2nd up – strange drop
5 – SQUINTS – most consistent horse in the race – drops back to a class where he won and was claimed
2 – IRIDESCENT – AQ 7/1-5-0 – runs well off the bench and a trio of decent works
1 – BOSS TWEED – all or nothing – going to get forward with most back class
Race 4: 7 Furlongs – Bias: Early Speed, 36% w2w – PP: Rail Bonus, 2/3 Discount, 4-7 Small Bonus, 8+ None
3 – FASHION VICTIM – 2nd up improvement – decently bet in debut – good works between races
1 – THE TACO LADY – probably any of the last 3 would be good enough
4 – GRAND JOB – tough to tell what this horse brings – but did run at best tracks in Ireland
2 – BUNDCHEN – Wesley Ward horse – money burner as heavy favorite in in 2 us races – best run on dirt – back to that after running on turf – brought to Royal Ascot – must have thought highly
Race 5: 6 ½ Furlongs – Bias: Early Speed, 38% w2w – PP: Inside 3 Penalty, 4-7 Bonus, 8+ Fair
9 – NILO’S ROSE – TLRPS# +9 and any 2nd race improvement and it’s a walk
3 – SOMEONE – resume says a better race today in 2nd up – better pace 2nd half last out
8 – TAKE ME TO LONDYN – Brad Cox first timer –
2 – CENTRAL CASTING – MSW dropper with a strong work and second start potential
Race 6: 1 Mile – Bias: Tactical Speed, 26% w2w – PP: Inside 3 Bonus, 4+ Small Penalty
5 – HEARD ON THESTREET – drops in class to a level where he finished 2nd after stumbling at the start – top TOTAL PACE +11
2 – BECAUSE THE NIGHT – just missed at this level last out – better in 2nd up
3 – J J’S JOKER – lowest level in last 10 and better ATB in last
7 – COOL OPERATOR – lowest level of his career – 2 wins were on slop – fast today
Race 7: 1 3/8 Miles Turf – Bias: 5 Races, Closers, 0 w2w – PP: 4 from 2/3 and 1 from 4-7
3 – BE LIKE CLINT – really consistent – fires off the bench – AQ 2/0-0-2 – Distance 4/0-1-3
1 – L’ANTHARIS – ran at some of the best track in France – drops in 2nd US race
6 – SWORE – another consistent performer – sizable drop in class
8 – HARRY HOOD – most back class and only triple digit speed number on recent resume
Race 8: 6 Furlongs Outer Turf – Bias: Early Speed, 28% w2w – PP: Rail Penalty, 2-7 Small Bonus, 8+ Penalty
5 – MORE THERAPY – any 2nd race improvement
1 – TAP IT EASY – like the back bullet work on Sep 22nd 4f in 47.3
3 – BLAMEITONTHESTONES – another where 2nd race improvement gets it done
11 – TIZTIMONIAL – good breeding and decent works
